ORealty Income CorporationReal Estate · REIT - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.15 · now $57.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, O has typically landed between $52.28 and $62.26 — a range of −8.5% to +8.9% from the issuance price $57.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where O has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$52.28worst · -8.5%$62.26best · +8.9%
  • now $57.15 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $57.4 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $55.3–$59.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $52.28–$62.26
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.2%−48.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−47.0%−47.0%+2.5%
2020-03-05−43.6%−45.2%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+56.4%+0.0%+59.9%
2008-11-19+52.1%−4.9%+52.1%
2008-12-01+43.7%+0.0%+51.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$61.2B
market cap
$1.22
EPS (TTM)
53.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$5.7B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr18.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr2.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.83
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $57.15$37.65$73.20
  • DCF (intrinsic)$58.10
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$40.11
  • Analyst target · range $65.00–$70.75$67.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$57.15

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+3.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.0%
n=19
May
21%
−2.1%
n=19
Jun
63%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
79%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
68%
+1.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.2%
n=18
Nov
56%
+0.7%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$66$542026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $209K — McLaughlin Gregory2026-04-02: 1 insider sale, $462K — Bushore Michelle2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $203K — McLaughlin Gregory2025-09-30: 1 insider sale, $665K — Preusse Mary Hogan2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $665K2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $665K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $209K↑ buys↓ salesdirector McLaughlin Gregory — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed same dayofficer Bushore Michelle — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed same daydirector McLaughlin Gregory — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed same daydirector Preusse Mary Hogan — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10McLaughlin GregorydirectorSale3,475 @ $60.15$209K−9.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open34,732Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-02Bushore MichelleofficerSale7,400 @ $62.42$462K−9.9% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open67,641Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01McLaughlin GregorydirectorSale3,275 @ $61.87$203K−8.6% of holding−6.4%not yet — horizon still open34,993Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-30Preusse Mary HogandirectorSale11,000 @ $60.43$665K−36.4% of holding−6.8%+6.1%19,211Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-27Redington NealeofficerWithheld for tax24023,618Form 4
2026-05-21GILYARD REGINALD HAROLDdirectorAward / grant3,21410,847Form 4
2026-05-21Hourihan KimberlydirectorAward / grant3,2146,613Form 4
2026-05-21Huskins Priya CheriandirectorAward / grant3,21454,246Form 4
2026-05-21Jacobson Jeff AdirectorAward / grant3,21414,846Form 4
2026-05-21LOPEZ GERARDO IdirectorAward / grant3,21434,846Form 4
2026-05-21MCKEE MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant3,214144,046Form 4
2026-05-21McLaughlin GregorydirectorAward / grant3,21438,207Form 4
2026-05-21Preusse Mary HogandirectorAward / grant3,21422,425Form 4
2026-05-21Almodovar PriscilladirectorAward / grant3,21425,179Form 4
2026-05-21Chapman A. LarrydirectorAward / grant3,21412,103Form 4
2026-02-26Bushore MichelleofficerAward / grant7,69875,041Form 4
2026-02-17Roy SumitdirectorWithheld for tax28,002424,300Form 4
2026-02-17Abraham NeilofficerWithheld for tax8,26592,842Form 4
2026-02-17Hagan Mark EofficerWithheld for tax8,14198,755Form 4
2026-02-17Bushore MichelleofficerWithheld for tax6,55159,767Form 4
2026-02-17Whyte Gregory J.directorWithheld for tax6,11427,945Form 4
2026-02-17Kehle ShannonofficerWithheld for tax1,31125,427Form 4
2026-02-17Redington NealeofficerAward / grant10,75323,858Form 4
2026-02-17Hagan Mark EofficerAward / grant30,194106,896Form 4
2026-02-17Hagan Mark EofficerAward / grant10,533109,288Form 4
2026-02-17Roy SumitdirectorAward / grant103,792452,302Form 4
2026-02-17Roy SumitdirectorAward / grant33,847458,147Form 4
2026-02-17Whyte Gregory J.directorAward / grant22,65234,059Form 4
2026-02-17Whyte Gregory J.directorAward / grant6,97834,923Form 4
2026-02-17Abraham NeilofficerAward / grant30,654101,107Form 4
2026-02-17Abraham NeilofficerAward / grant10,706103,548Form 4
2026-02-17Pong JonathanofficerAward / grant7,11043,291Form 4
2026-02-17Bushore MichelleofficerAward / grant24,29066,318Form 4
2026-02-17Bushore MichelleofficerAward / grant7,57667,343Form 4
2026-02-17Kehle ShannonofficerAward / grant4,87226,738Form 4
2026-02-17Kehle ShannonofficerAward / grant2,25627,683Form 4
2026-02-15Roy SumitdirectorWithheld for tax4,657348,510Form 4
2026-02-15Roy SumitdirectorWithheld for tax4,547353,167Form 4
2026-02-15Pong JonathanofficerWithheld for tax2,32236,777Form 4
2026-02-15Abraham NeilofficerWithheld for tax1,48070,453Form 4
2026-02-15Hagan Mark EofficerWithheld for tax1,44976,702Form 4
2026-02-15Abraham NeilofficerWithheld for tax1,34271,933Form 4
2026-02-15Hagan Mark EofficerWithheld for tax1,32278,151Form 4
2026-02-15Whyte Gregory J.directorWithheld for tax1,09112,401Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-05-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-12-092025-11-05$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-09-172023-03-15$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-05$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$50–100K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.