NYTThe New York Times Companyas of 2026-09-17
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-17 at $69.94 · now $69.94 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, NYT has typically landed between $62.15 and $79.48 — a range of −11.1% to +13.6% from the issuance price $69.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,674 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($69.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NYT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $69.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$62.15worst · -11.1%$79.48best · +13.6%
  • now $69.94 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $70.68 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $67.05–$74.3
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $62.15–$79.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,674 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-23−50.1%−50.1%+0.0%
2008-10-21−46.5%−46.5%+0.0%
2008-10-22−46.5%−46.5%+0.2%
3 best
2009-07-09+69.7%−0.5%+74.9%
2009-07-10+69.6%+0.0%+75.8%
2009-07-08+65.6%−2.8%+70.9%

4,674 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.1%
n=18
Feb
68%
+3.7%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.1%
n=19
Apr
42%
−2.3%
n=19
May
42%
+2.8%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.4%
n=19
Aug
32%
−1.2%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
+2.0%
n=18
Nov
61%
+4.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$86$542026-06-03: 1 insider sale, $297K — Welch Jacqueline M2026-05-12: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A., Bardeen William2026-03-03: 2 insider sales, $5.2M — KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A., Bardeen William2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $354K — Brayton Diane2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $141K — BENTEN R ANTHONY2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A.2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $330K — Welch Jacqueline M2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $620K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $495K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $5.2M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $297K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Welch Jacqueline M — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A. — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bardeen William — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A. — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bardeen William — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Brayton Diane — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer BENTEN R ANTHONY — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A. — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Welch Jacqueline M — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-03Welch Jacqueline MofficerSale4,000 @ $74.14$297K−14.4% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open23,873Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A.directorSale9,750 @ $78.00$761K−4.3% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open219,612Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12Bardeen WilliamofficerSale4,121 @ $77.85$321K−22.1% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open14,560Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A.directorSale51,949 @ $79.70$4.1M−18.5% of holding+8.6%not yet — horizon still open229,362Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03Bardeen WilliamofficerSale13,000 @ $79.56$1.0M−41.0% of holding+8.6%not yet — horizon still open18,681Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20Brayton DianeofficerSale4,600 @ $77.03$354K−14.0% of holding+10.7%−25.3%28,279Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-17BENTEN R ANTHONYofficerSale1,913 @ $73.57$141K−4.8% of holding+11.7%−22.7%37,772Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-06KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A.directorSale16,972 @ $59.68$1.0M−13.8% of holding+6.8%+18.7%106,365Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-28Welch Jacqueline MofficerSale5,500 @ $60.04$330K−27.5% of holding−6.6%+29.0%14,470Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-12Bardeen WilliamofficerSale5,000 @ $58.04$290K−30.8% of holding−1.4%+15.5%11,243Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A.directorSale19,260 @ $56.82$1.1M−13.5% of holding−5.8%−1.0%123,337Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Brayton DianeofficerSale10,000 @ $56.48$565K−23.3% of holding−5.8%−1.0%32,879Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-30Bardeen WilliamofficerSale2,500 @ $56.83$142K−13.0% of holding−6.4%−3.0%16,727Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30BENTEN R ANTHONYofficerSale1,990 @ $56.75$113K−4.8% of holding−6.4%−3.0%39,685Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-27Brayton DianeofficerSale10,000 @ $47.90$479K−18.9% of holding+7.1%+14.1%42,879Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A.directorSale19,869 @ $50.53$1.0M−19.5% of holding+2.7%+13.2%81,903Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

138 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Bardeen WilliamofficerWithheld for tax48514,075Form 4
2026-07-23Bronstein ManueldirectorAward / grant6220,405Form 4
2026-07-23Brooke Beth A.directorAward / grant6822,167Form 4
2026-07-23Glaser Rachel CdirectorAward / grant11035,888Form 4
2026-07-23MCANDREWS BRIAN PdirectorAward / grant17660,174Form 4
2026-07-23ROGERS JOHN W JRdirectorAward / grant10654,598Form 4
2026-07-23VAN DYCK REBECCAdirectorAward / grant17657,014Form 4
2026-07-23Subramanian Anuradha B.directorAward / grant3611,935Form 4
2026-07-23Bhutani Amanpal SinghdirectorAward / grant9832,147Form 4
2026-04-22Bronstein ManueldirectorAward / grant2,27720,343Form 4
2026-04-22Glaser Rachel CdirectorAward / grant2,27735,778Form 4
2026-04-22Subramanian Anuradha B.directorAward / grant2,27711,899Form 4
2026-04-22VAN DYCK REBECCAdirectorAward / grant2,27756,838Form 4
2026-04-22MCANDREWS BRIAN PdirectorAward / grant2,27759,998Form 4
2026-04-22ROGERS JOHN W JRdirectorAward / grant2,27754,492Form 4
2026-04-22Bhutani Amanpal SinghdirectorAward / grant2,27732,049Form 4
2026-04-22Brooke Beth A.directorAward / grant2,27722,099Form 4
2026-04-22MCANDREWS BRIAN PdirectorAward / grant16517,336Form 4
2026-04-22MCANDREWS BRIAN PdirectorAward / grant16517,336Form 4
2026-04-16Glaser Rachel CdirectorAward / grant9233,501Form 4
2026-04-16MCANDREWS BRIAN PdirectorAward / grant15157,721Form 4
2026-04-16Bhutani Amanpal SinghdirectorAward / grant8129,772Form 4
2026-04-16Bronstein ManueldirectorAward / grant4918,066Form 4
2026-04-16Subramanian Anuradha B.directorAward / grant269,622Form 4
2026-04-16VAN DYCK REBECCAdirectorAward / grant15154,561Form 4
2026-04-16Brooke Beth A.directorAward / grant5419,822Form 4
2026-04-16ROGERS JOHN W JRdirectorAward / grant8852,215Form 4
2026-02-26KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A.directorWithheld for tax90,431186,352Form 4
2026-02-26Brayton DianeofficerWithheld for tax20,03644,629Form 4
2026-02-26Bardeen WilliamofficerWithheld for tax16,17325,827Form 4
2026-02-26Welch Jacqueline MofficerWithheld for tax10,27026,395Form 4
2026-02-26KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A.directorWithheld for tax4,047281,311Form 4
2026-02-26BENTEN R ANTHONYofficerWithheld for tax2,88741,677Form 4
2026-02-26Brayton DianeofficerWithheld for tax78550,646Form 4
2026-02-26Bardeen WilliamofficerWithheld for tax74631,681Form 4
2026-02-26Welch Jacqueline MofficerWithheld for tax31027,873Form 4
2026-02-26BENTEN R ANTHONYofficerWithheld for tax12142,106Form 4
2026-02-26Brayton DianeofficerAward / grant38,08464,665Form 4
2026-02-26Welch Jacqueline MofficerAward / grant23,02936,665Form 4
2026-02-26KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A.directorAward / grant82,505285,358Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-17 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-09-122025-08-04$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-07-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-07-072022-06-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-06-102022-05-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-06-102022-05-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-06-102022-05-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-03-082022-02-14$1–15K
Sara JacobsHousesale2021-05-282021-04-09$50–100K
Mr. Peter MeijerHousesale2021-03-162021-02-16$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-05-132020-04-07$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.