Issued 2026-09-16 at $78.03 · now $78.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NXT has typically landed between $63.53 and $103.24 — a range of −18.6% to +32.3% from the issuance price $78.03.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
881 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-02-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($78.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NXT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $78.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $78.03 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $78.94 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $70.1–$87.77
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $63.53–$103.24
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 881 windows spanning 2023-02-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-04 | −27.6% | −28.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-03-15 | −26.6% | −26.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-02 | −25.9% | −29.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-15 | +51.8% | −3.2% | +51.8% |
| 2025-04-21 | +50.2% | +0.0% | +56.8% |
| 2025-04-16 | +49.3% | −1.1% | +55.1% |
881 overlapping windows · 2023-02-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+23.0%
n=3
Feb
33%
+0.4%
n=3
Mar
75%
+7.4%
n=4
Apr
0%
−10.5%
n=4
May
100%
+29.9%
n=4
Jun
25%
−9.3%
n=4
Jul
75%
−1.6%
n=4
Aug
25%
−2.8%
n=4
Sep
25%
−1.8%
n=4
Oct
67%
+9.9%
n=3
Nov
33%
+1.1%
n=3
Dec
33%
+2.0%
n=3
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | BOYNTON CHARLES D | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $79.98 | $360K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 354,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Blunden Julia | director | Sale | 3,692 @ $84.10 | $311K | −57.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,742 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Blunden Julia | director | Sale | 3,723 @ $88.08 | $328K | −36.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,434 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Thomas Brandi Elizabeth | director | Sale | 7,415 @ $91.25 | $677K | −48.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,914 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 11,176 @ $104.78 | $1.2M | −2.6% of holding | −20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 419,868 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 51,779 @ $103.24 | $5.3M | −5.6% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 872,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 14,697 @ $102.39 | $1.5M | −1.6% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 924,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 1,160 @ $103.91 | $121K | −0.1% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 871,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Blunden Julia | director | Sale | 2,289 @ $97.22 | $223K | −23.6% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | BOYNTON CHARLES D | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $151.79 | $683K | −1.2% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 358,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Miller Nicholas Marco | officer | Sale | 22,427 @ $156.00 | $3.5M | −10.8% of holding | −22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,194 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 26,077 @ $134.72 | $3.5M | −2.7% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 931,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 23,355 @ $129.66 | $3.0M | −4.9% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 458,092 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 22,466 @ $130.78 | $2.9M | −4.9% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 7,840 @ $131.39 | $1.0M | −1.8% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 427,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 7,690 @ $128.91 | $991K | −1.6% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 481,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Sale | 3,248 @ $134.72 | $438K | −1.3% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 246,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 1,319 @ $132.59 | $175K | −0.3% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 426,467 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 9,051 @ $121.02 | $1.1M | −1.8% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 499,531 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Miller Nicholas Marco | officer | Sale | 24,511 @ $127.32 | $3.1M | −10.0% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 221,533 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 16,090 @ $127.32 | $2.0M | −3.1% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 508,582 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 15,873 @ $107.75 | $1.7M | −2.1% of holding | +7.7% | −34.5% | 747,712 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 11,453 @ $106.45 | $1.2M | −1.5% of holding | +7.7% | −34.5% | 763,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 9,766 @ $105.58 | $1.0M | −1.2% of holding | +7.7% | −34.5% | 775,038 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 6,748 @ $101.25 | $683K | −0.8% of holding | +7.7% | −34.5% | 795,797 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 4,050 @ $103.18 | $418K | −0.5% of holding | +7.7% | −34.5% | 788,027 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 3,720 @ $102.17 | $380K | −0.5% of holding | +7.7% | −34.5% | 792,077 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 3,223 @ $104.76 | $338K | −0.4% of holding | +7.7% | −34.5% | 784,804 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 3,250 @ $100.07 | $325K | −0.4% of holding | +7.7% | −34.5% | 802,545 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 1,373 @ $108.22 | $149K | −0.2% of holding | +7.7% | −34.5% | 746,339 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 39,892 @ $101.04 | $4.0M | −6.4% of holding | +12.9% | −32.8% | 584,990 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | BOYNTON CHARLES D | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $100.45 | $452K | −1.5% of holding | +21.2% | −33.3% | 286,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | WATKINS WILLIAM D | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $118.57 | $593K | −29.8% of holding | −11.9% | −32.6% | 11,777 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bennett David P | officer | Sale | 33,725 @ $88.08 | $3.0M | −20.5% of holding | +6.3% | +24.5% | 130,967 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | BOYNTON CHARLES D | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $89.33 | $402K | −1.5% of holding | −0.9% | +56.0% | 290,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | WATKINS WILLIAM D | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $91.85 | $919K | −37.3% of holding | −6.0% | +20.5% | 16,777 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 40,660 @ $91.10 | $3.7M | −6.0% of holding | −4.9% | +28.3% | 631,965 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Sale | 7,083 @ $92.28 | $654K | −1.1% of holding | −4.9% | +28.3% | 624,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 5,217 @ $75.00 | $391K | −1.3% of holding | +23.9% | +59.8% | 409,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | BOYNTON CHARLES D | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $67.21 | $302K | −1.5% of holding | +28.1% | +78.1% | 295,059 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-12 | Bennett David P | officer | Sale | 29,178 @ $67.08 | $2.0M | −15.1% of holding | +29.2% | +74.7% | 164,692 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 5,703 @ $70.00 | $399K | −1.4% of holding | +2.4% | +66.8% | 414,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Sale | 6,980 @ $56.24 | $393K | −3.4% of holding | +12.4% | +107.3% | 195,790 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | WATKINS WILLIAM D | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $56.79 | $568K | −56.6% of holding | +19.5% | +98.5% | 7,666 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-03 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 5,216 @ $65.00 | $339K | −1.2% of holding | −16.0% | +30.0% | 419,959 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-01 | Miller Nicholas Marco | officer | Sale | 946 @ $54.27 | $51K | −0.6% of holding | −1.0% | +39.5% | 169,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | Miller Nicholas Marco | officer | Sale | 5,588 @ $57.32 | $320K | −3.2% of holding | +7.2% | +44.2% | 170,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Miller Nicholas Marco | officer | Sale | 47,641 @ $59.54 | $2.8M | −19.4% of holding | +2.6% | +42.4% | 197,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Miller Nicholas Marco | officer | Sale | 22,133 @ $59.89 | $1.3M | −11.2% of holding | +2.6% | +42.4% | 175,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Sale | 83,561 @ $55.71 | $4.7M | −29.9% of holding | −6.9% | +47.7% | 195,791 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Sale | 3,017 @ $55.95 | $169K | −2.7% of holding | −2.5% | +41.0% | 110,564 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Sale | 27,453 @ $60.17 | $1.7M | −18.5% of holding | +0.2% | +44.3% | 120,973 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 5,703 @ $60.00 | $342K | −2.6% of holding | −3.4% | +28.6% | 213,686 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Bennett David P | officer | Sale | 9,801 @ $55.00 | $539K | −7.3% of holding | +7.0% | +78.6% | 124,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Wenger Howard | director | Sale | 6,066 @ $55.00 | $334K | −2.7% of holding | +7.0% | +78.6% | 219,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
245 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | GULDNER JEFFREY B. | director | Award / grant | 2,742 | 10,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Karuturi Monica | director | Award / grant | 2,742 | 6,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Blunden Julia | director | Award / grant | 2,742 | 10,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Menezes Mark | director | Award / grant | 2,742 | 6,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | WATKINS WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 3,455 | 15,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thomas Brandi Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 2,742 | 15,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | SHIH WILLY C | director | Award / grant | 2,742 | 52,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Wiedmann Lindsey Roon | officer | Award / grant | 13,898 | 13,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 30,077 | 938,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Wenger Howard | director | Other acquisition | 16,041 | 431,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Bennett David P | officer | Other acquisition | 13,368 | 161,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Other acquisition | 10,436 | 249,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Option exercise | 57,165 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Option exercise | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Wenger Howard | director | Option exercise | 30,488 | 447,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Wenger Howard | director | Option exercise | 30,488 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bennett David P | officer | Option exercise | 25,407 | 174,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bennett David P | officer | Option exercise | 25,407 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Option exercise | 57,165 | 968,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Option exercise | 20,326 | 259,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Option exercise | 20,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Option exercise | 57,165 | 968,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Option exercise | 57,165 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Wenger Howard | director | Option exercise | 30,488 | 447,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Wenger Howard | director | Option exercise | 30,488 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bennett David P | officer | Option exercise | 25,407 | 174,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bennett David P | officer | Option exercise | 25,407 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | LEDESMA BRUCE | officer | Option exercise | 20,326 | 259,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Vinje Robert | officer | Award / grant | 15,262 | 15,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 21,402 | 911,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Option exercise | 21,402 | 933,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Option exercise | 21,402 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 11,598 | 927,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 10,502 | 948,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 10,067 | 938,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 7,435 | 959,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 7,131 | 919,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 3,807 | 916,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 1,500 | 914,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SHUGAR DANIEL S | director | Other acquisition | 1,360 | 912,579 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.