Issued 2026-09-25 at $238.08 · now $238.08 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, NXPI has typically landed between $202.93 and $279.03 — a range of −14.8% to +17.2% from the issuance price $238.08.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,038 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-08-06 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($238.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NXPI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $238.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $238.08 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $236.97 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $220.82–$253.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $202.93–$279.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,038 windows spanning 2010-08-06 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −51.6% | −51.6% | +0.8% |
| 2011-07-08 | −46.2% | −46.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −45.2% | −51.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-11-30 | +64.6% | +0.0% | +64.7% |
| 2010-11-29 | +62.7% | −1.2% | +62.7% |
| 2010-11-24 | +59.5% | −0.7% | +59.9% |
4,038 overlapping windows · 2010-08-06 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$68.0B
market cap
$10.45
EPS (TTM)
25.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$12.3B
'20'25
Net income$2.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr16.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr20.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.22
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$71.84
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$357.44
- Analyst target · range $188.00–$325.00$272.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$238.08
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
69%
+6.1%
n=16
Feb
75%
+6.0%
n=16
Mar
44%
−0.9%
n=16
Apr
50%
+3.7%
n=16
May
75%
+3.3%
n=16
Jun
44%
−0.0%
n=16
Jul
50%
−1.0%
n=16
Aug
50%
−0.1%
n=16
Sep
47%
−0.0%
n=17
Oct
50%
+0.8%
n=16
Nov
63%
+5.7%
n=16
Dec
56%
+4.4%
n=16
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Micallef Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $226.04 | $226K | −11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Micallef Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $315.57 | $316K | −10.1% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Jensen Christopher L | officer | Sale | 1,746 @ $316.53 | $553K | −32.4% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Hardy Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,289 @ $235.00 | $1.2M | −72.4% of holding | +26.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,020 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Jensen Christopher L | officer | Sale | 4,576 @ $234.03 | $1.1M | −45.9% of holding | +26.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,389 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Micallef Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $194.58 | $195K | −9.1% of holding | +4.8% | +4.9% | 9,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 9,558 @ $220.74 | $2.1M | −39.4% of holding | −1.2% | +14.5% | 14,678 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 2,867 @ $221.62 | $635K | −19.5% of holding | −1.2% | +14.5% | 11,811 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Micallef Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $230.78 | $231K | −8.4% of holding | +0.9% | +19.8% | 10,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Jensen Christopher L | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $228.17 | $525K | −18.8% of holding | −2.0% | +22.8% | 9,965 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Southern Julie | director | Purchase | 225 @ $225.48 | $51K | +1.9% of holding | −2.0% | +22.8% | 11,937 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Betz William | officer | Sale | 7,299 @ $201.93 | $1.5M | −82.8% of holding | +14.4% | +35.8% | 1,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 3,380 @ $207.58 | $702K | −14.2% of holding | +9.3% | +34.4% | 20,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 2,278 @ $205.45 | $468K | −8.3% of holding | +9.3% | +34.4% | 25,269 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 1,384 @ $206.38 | $286K | −5.5% of holding | +9.3% | +34.4% | 23,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 1,030 @ $208.66 | $215K | −5.0% of holding | +9.3% | +34.4% | 19,475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 300 @ $209.50 | $63K | −1.5% of holding | +9.3% | +34.4% | 19,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Micallef Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $216.21 | $216K | −12.8% of holding | −1.5% | −12.8% | 6,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Sotomayor Rafael | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $219.57 | $439K | −28.7% of holding | −0.9% | +6.2% | 4,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Betz William | officer | Sale | 6,785 @ $227.34 | $1.5M | −81.7% of holding | +2.8% | −8.5% | 1,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 9,132 @ $230.00 | $2.1M | −25.2% of holding | −9.4% | −15.8% | 27,088 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Micallef Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $213.94 | $214K | −11.3% of holding | −0.8% | −5.6% | 7,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Micallef Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $204.86 | $205K | −10.2% of holding | −12.9% | −10.7% | 8,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-09-17 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $232.35 | $813K | −10.4% of holding | −3.7% | −13.1% | 30,269 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-30 | Southern Julie | director | Purchase | 146 @ $257.54 | $38K | +1.3% of holding | −4.9% | −27.6% | 11,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-10 | Sievers Kurt | director | Sale | 8,548 @ $275.75 | $2.4M | −4.6% of holding | −4.7% | −31.8% | 177,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-29 | Jensen Christopher L | officer | Sale | 4,765 @ $248.41 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | −4.0% | −10.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-02-28 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Sale | 4,695 @ $245.27 | $1.2M | −39.8% of holding | −1.6% | −9.0% | 7,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-28 | Wuamett Jennifer | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $244.78 | $979K | −10.6% of holding | −1.6% | −9.0% | 33,769 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
271 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Hoffmann Michael Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 2,075 | 2,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sundstrom Karl-Henrik | director | Withheld for tax | 513 | 4,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Olving Lena | director | Withheld for tax | 513 | 4,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Southern Julie | director | Withheld for tax | 513 | 12,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Foxx Anthony R | director | Withheld for tax | 513 | 3,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | CLAYTON ANNETTE K | director | Withheld for tax | 513 | 3,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Withheld for tax | 513 | 8,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Staiblin Jasmin | director | Withheld for tax | 513 | 7,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | GAVRIELOV MOSHE | director | Withheld for tax | 426 | 1,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Chunyuan Gu | director | Withheld for tax | 418 | 2,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | GAVRIELOV MOSHE | director | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 9,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Olving Lena | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Olving Lena | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Olving Lena | director | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sundstrom Karl-Henrik | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 5,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sundstrom Karl-Henrik | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sundstrom Karl-Henrik | director | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Southern Julie | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Southern Julie | director | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Staiblin Jasmin | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 7,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Staiblin Jasmin | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Staiblin Jasmin | director | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Southern Julie | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 12,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | CLAYTON ANNETTE K | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 4,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | CLAYTON ANNETTE K | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | CLAYTON ANNETTE K | director | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Chunyuan Gu | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 3,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Chunyuan Gu | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Chunyuan Gu | director | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Foxx Anthony R | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 4,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Foxx Anthony R | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Foxx Anthony R | director | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | GAVRIELOV MOSHE | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 2,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | GAVRIELOV MOSHE | director | Option exercise | 1,035 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Hardy Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,483 | 4,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Hardy Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 4,880 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Hardy Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 4,880 | 6,900 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-11 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-11-18 | 2025-10-17 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.