NXDR · TickerCove

NXDRNextdoor Holdings, Inc.Communication Services · Internet Content & Informationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.48 · now $2.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NXDR has typically landed between $1.84 and $3.23 — a range of −25.7% to +30.2% from the issuance price $2.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,356 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$2.48 · 79% of range

$1.36 low$2.77 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.9%

typical move · IQR 20.4%

−25.7%worst (p90)+30.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NXDR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $2.48 (+0.0%)
typical $2.46 (-0.9%)
middle 50% $2.2–$2.71
90% range $1.84–$3.23

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,356 windows spanning 2021-03-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-04-19	−48.8%	−48.8%	+0.0%
2022-04-25	−47.0%	−47.0%	+0.0%
2022-04-11	−46.4%	−46.4%	+1.6%
3 best
2025-11-11	+61.0%	−8.1%	+61.0%
2023-05-04	+48.5%	+0.0%	+48.5%
2023-05-05	+47.8%	+0.0%	+47.8%

1,356 overlapping windows · 2021-03-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−4.9%

n=5

Feb

40%

−0.9%

n=5

Mar

40%

−6.2%

n=5

Apr

33%

−3.7%

n=6

May

67%

+5.2%

n=6

Jun

83%

+13.0%

n=6

Jul

67%

+1.4%

n=6

Aug

33%

−5.8%

n=6

Sep

50%

−2.4%

n=6

Oct

20%

−2.3%

n=5

Nov

40%

−5.6%

n=5

Dec

40%

−0.7%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	How Antoinette	officer	Sale	35,581 @ $2.25	$80K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-21	Kiernan Michael	officer	Sale	111,559 @ $2.39	$266K	−18.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	508,602	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $2.51	$6K	−0.7% of holding	+0.8%	not yet — horizon still open	336,897	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-16	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	52,582 @ $2.48	$131K	−13.5% of holding	+0.6%	not yet — horizon still open	336,897	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16	Lisowski Craig	officer	Sale	30,000 @ $2.51	$75K	−1.7% of holding	+0.6%	not yet — horizon still open	1,724,123	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-16	How Antoinette	officer	Sale	9,424 @ $2.48	$23K	−20.9% of holding	+0.6%	not yet — horizon still open	35,581	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-14	Lisowski Craig	officer	Sale	60,000 @ $2.50	$150K	−3.3% of holding	−0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,754,123	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	28,616 @ $2.25	$64K	−8.5% of holding	+6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	307,757	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-16	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	43,015 @ $1.53	$66K	−11.3% of holding	+25.6%	not yet — horizon still open	336,373	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-16	How Antoinette	officer	Sale	15,597 @ $1.51	$24K	−39.1% of holding	+25.6%	not yet — horizon still open	24,303	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $1.65	$4K	−0.9% of holding	−7.7%	+35.8%	286,587	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-16	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	23,278 @ $1.95	$45K	−7.5% of holding	−12.8%	+16.4%	286,587	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-16	How Antoinette	officer	Sale	13,935 @ $1.95	$27K	−43.3% of holding	−12.8%	+16.4%	18,270	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	12,522 @ $2.07	$26K	−4.7% of holding	−9.6%	−2.8%	251,671	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $2.17	$87K	−13.1% of holding	−11.2%	−9.0%	264,193	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-10	How Antoinette	officer	Sale	31,894 @ $2.63	$84K	−71.5% of holding	−23.1%	−25.5%	12,692	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-10	Lisowski Craig	officer	Sale	30,000 @ $2.52	$76K	−2.2% of holding	−23.1%	−25.5%	1,347,623	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-03	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $1.92	$77K	−11.6% of holding	−8.9%	−23.1%	304,193	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-16	How Antoinette	officer	Sale	15,633 @ $2.01	$31K	−26.0% of holding	−19.5%	−31.2%	44,586	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $2.07	$83K	−10.4% of holding	−20.6%	−33.7%	344,193	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-17	How Antoinette	officer	Sale	13,484 @ $2.20	$30K	−25.9% of holding	−9.1%	−34.6%	38,506	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $2.12	$85K	−11.1% of holding	−4.7%	−31.0%	321,580	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-19	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Sale	42,500 @ $2.00	$85K	−10.5% of holding	+11.1%	−19.7%	361,580	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

261 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-15	Tolia Nirav N	director	Withheld for tax	123,216	2,005,952	Form 4
2026-07-15	Lisowski Craig	officer	Withheld for tax	90,679	1,757,954	Form 4
2026-07-15	Tolia Nirav N	director	Withheld for tax	43,491	2,100,351	Form 4
2026-07-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Withheld for tax	40,132	359,291	Form 4
2026-07-15	Lisowski Craig	officer	Withheld for tax	36,904	1,793,724	Form 4
2026-07-15	Ponnambalam Indrajit	officer	Withheld for tax	33,402	138,862	Form 4
2026-07-15	Kiernan Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	28,146	601,995	Form 4
2026-07-15	Lisowski Craig	officer	Withheld for tax	21,047	1,814,123	Form 4
2026-07-15	Tolia Nirav N	director	Withheld for tax	17,757	2,033,320	Form 4
2026-07-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Withheld for tax	12,903	389,479	Form 4
2026-07-15	Kiernan Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	11,964	617,661	Form 4
2026-07-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Withheld for tax	10,606	372,910	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Withheld for tax	3,398	39,807	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Withheld for tax	2,906	45,005	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Withheld for tax	2,634	29,015	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Withheld for tax	2,634	33,727	Form 4
2026-07-15	Tolia Nirav N	director	Option exercise	313,126	2,191,884	Form 4
2026-07-15	Tolia Nirav N	director	Option exercise	45,125	451,254	Form 4
2026-07-15	Tolia Nirav N	director	Option exercise	110,522	1,547,303	Form 4
2026-07-15	Lisowski Craig	officer	Option exercise	178,572	1,848,633	Form 4
2026-07-15	Lisowski Craig	officer	Option exercise	72,674	1,830,628	Form 4
2026-07-15	Lisowski Craig	officer	Option exercise	41,446	1,835,170	Form 4
2026-07-15	Kiernan Michael	officer	Option exercise	27,630	386,826	Form 4
2026-07-15	Kiernan Michael	officer	Option exercise	65,000	630,141	Form 4
2026-07-15	Kiernan Michael	officer	Option exercise	27,630	629,625	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Option exercise	7,346	51,425	Form 4
2026-07-15	Kiernan Michael	officer	Option exercise	65,000	130,000	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Option exercise	7,346	22,040	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Option exercise	8,104	89,155	Form 4
2026-07-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Option exercise	91,666	399,423	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Option exercise	8,104	47,911	Form 4
2026-07-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Option exercise	24,225	383,516	Form 4
2026-07-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Option exercise	29,472	402,382	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Option exercise	9,478	43,205	Form 4
2026-07-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Option exercise	91,666	183,334	Form 4
2026-07-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Option exercise	24,225	48,450	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Option exercise	7,346	36,361	Form 4
2026-07-15	Schwartz Sophia	officer	Option exercise	29,472	412,615	Form 4
2026-07-15	Ponnambalam Indrajit	officer	Option exercise	103,249	172,264	Form 4
2026-07-15	How Antoinette	officer	Option exercise	7,346	31,649	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i