Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.44 · now $33.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NWS has typically landed between $29.69 and $37.44 — a range of −11.2% to +12.0% from the issuance price $33.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,310 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-06-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NWS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $33.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.93 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.29–$35.56
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.69–$37.44
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −44.4% | −44.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −41.3% | −41.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −38.1% | −38.1% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-30 | +40.1% | +0.0% | +40.1% |
| 2020-11-02 | +39.8% | +0.0% | +39.8% |
| 2020-11-04 | +39.6% | +0.0% | +39.6% |
3,310 overlapping windows · 2013-06-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$13.81
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$11.98
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$33.44
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Pitofsky David B | officer | Sale | 51,423 @ $28.76 | $1.5M | −38.2% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Allen Ruth | officer | Sale | 21,521 @ $28.99 | $624K | −100.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | DeGrazio Marygrace | officer | Sale | 18,303 @ $28.76 | $526K | −41.3% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Chandrashekar Lavanya | officer | Sale | 17,785 @ $28.66 | $510K | −100.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Delany Julian | officer | Sale | 1,747 @ $28.72 | $50K | −100.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
295 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Thomson Robert J | director | Withheld for tax | 240,578 | 203,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thomson Robert J | director | Disposition | 203,763 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pitofsky David B | officer | Withheld for tax | 37,968 | 123,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thomson Robert J | director | Withheld for tax | 20,080 | 17,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thomson Robert J | director | Withheld for tax | 18,703 | 16,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thomson Robert J | director | Disposition | 17,842 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thomson Robert J | director | Withheld for tax | 17,011 | 15,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thomson Robert J | director | Disposition | 16,619 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thomson Robert J | director | Disposition | 15,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Allen Ruth | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,519 | 14,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | MURDOCH KEITH RUPERT | other | Disposition | 8,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | MURDOCH KEITH RUPERT | other | Withheld for tax | 5,895 | 8,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pitofsky David B | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,439 | 127,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pitofsky David B | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,297 | 134,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pitofsky David B | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,133 | 130,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Chandrashekar Lavanya | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,443 | 12,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Chandrashekar Lavanya | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,169 | 17,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Allen Ruth | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,389 | 17,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | DeGrazio Marygrace | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,234 | 38,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delany Julian | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,000 | 1,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | DeGrazio Marygrace | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,812 | 41,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | DeGrazio Marygrace | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,780 | 44,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Allen Ruth | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,714 | 21,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delany Julian | officer | Disposition | 1,676 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delany Julian | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,544 | 1,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Allen Ruth | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,498 | 19,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delany Julian | officer | Disposition | 1,477 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delany Julian | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,126 | 1,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | DeGrazio Marygrace | officer | Award / grant | 14,193 | 14,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Chandrashekar Lavanya | officer | Award / grant | 27,777 | 27,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delany Julian | officer | Award / grant | 10,287 | 10,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thomson Robert J | director | Award / grant | 108,024 | 108,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pitofsky David B | officer | Award / grant | 25,719 | 25,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Allen Ruth | officer | Award / grant | 11,831 | 11,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pitofsky David B | officer | Option exercise | 8,382 | 131,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delany Julian | officer | Option exercise | 3,021 | 3,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Chandrashekar Lavanya | officer | Option exercise | 9,548 | 9,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delany Julian | officer | Option exercise | 3,676 | 3,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Allen Ruth | officer | Option exercise | 23,620 | 23,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Chandrashekar Lavanya | officer | Option exercise | 8,790 | 17,586 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2020-05-13 | 2020-04-29 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2020-05-08 | 2020-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2020-04-16 | 2020-03-18 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | purchase | 2020-04-05 | 2020-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Barbara J Comstock | House | sale | 2017-02-18 | 2017-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Barbara J. Comstock | House | sale | 2016-12-11 | 2016-12-12 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.