Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.67 · now $48.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NWN has typically landed between $44.64 and $53.10 — a range of −8.3% to +9.1% from the issuance price $48.67.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NWN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $48.67 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.76 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $47.03–$50.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.64–$53.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −32.7% | −32.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −31.7% | −31.7% | +1.8% |
| 2020-02-11 | −28.2% | −28.2% | +3.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +23.6% | +0.0% | +26.9% |
| 2022-02-04 | +19.8% | −1.8% | +19.8% |
| 2022-02-08 | +19.7% | −2.1% | +19.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.0%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.3%
n=20
Apr
75%
+1.7%
n=20
May
40%
−0.8%
n=20
Jun
45%
+0.1%
n=20
Jul
75%
+1.6%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.6%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Oct
55%
+2.2%
n=20
Nov
45%
+1.3%
n=20
Dec
60%
−0.4%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $50.86 | $76K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,759 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $51.18 | $77K | −2.8% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $50.90 | $76K | −2.7% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,759 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bragdon Peter J | director | Purchase | 400 @ $50.32 | $20K | +100.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Palfreyman Justin | director | Purchase | 1,225 @ $48.75 | $60K | +5.9% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,165 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-23 | Weber David A. | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $52.57 | $89K | −91.9% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 149 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | RUSH KIMBERLY HEITING | officer | Sale | 1 @ $52.53 | $41 | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | −17.4% | 27,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Weber David A. | officer | Sale | 1 @ $52.53 | $32 | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | −17.4% | 1,849 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Karney Joseph S | officer | Sale | 1 @ $52.53 | $30 | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | −17.4% | 4,511 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Karney Joseph S | officer | Sale | 1 @ $52.53 | $30 | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | −17.4% | 4,510 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Kravitz Zachary D | officer | Sale | 1 @ $52.53 | $28 | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | −17.4% | 2,739 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Kravitz Zachary D | officer | Sale | 1 @ $52.53 | $28 | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | −17.4% | 2,738 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | RUSH KIMBERLY HEITING | officer | Sale | 0 @ $52.53 | $20 | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | −17.4% | 27,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Rogers Melinda B. | officer | Sale | 0 @ $52.53 | $7 | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | −17.4% | 2,214 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Saathoff MardiLyn | officer | Sale | 1 @ $46.90 | $37 | −0.0% of holding | −3.3% | +1.7% | 28,458 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Saathoff MardiLyn | officer | Sale | 0 @ $46.90 | $16 | −0.0% of holding | −3.3% | +1.7% | 28,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,468 @ $47.95 | $358K | −16.8% of holding | −1.0% | −4.7% | 36,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $46.39 | $348K | −14.4% of holding | +4.7% | +7.7% | 44,422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 10,509 @ $45.00 | $473K | −16.8% of holding | +6.9% | +14.7% | 51,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 4,930 @ $45.00 | $222K | −7.3% of holding | +2.1% | +18.0% | 62,431 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 328 @ $45.00 | $15K | −0.5% of holding | +2.5% | +27.2% | 67,361 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 4,233 @ $45.01 | $191K | −5.9% of holding | −0.8% | +23.2% | 67,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,795 @ $42.13 | $328K | −9.8% of holding | +7.9% | +25.1% | 71,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,574 @ $40.43 | $306K | −8.7% of holding | +0.8% | +16.3% | 79,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $41.96 | $315K | −7.9% of holding | −4.3% | +4.9% | 87,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $39.68 | $298K | −7.3% of holding | +1.1% | +8.4% | 94,791 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,591 @ $40.99 | $311K | −6.9% of holding | −4.0% | +3.4% | 102,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $43.00 | $323K | −6.4% of holding | −17.5% | −20.7% | 109,882 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Weber David A. | officer | Sale | 2,183 @ $42.46 | $93K | −89.5% of holding | +2.9% | −12.1% | 255 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $41.46 | $311K | −6.0% of holding | +12.1% | −8.4% | 117,382 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 15,452 @ $42.01 | $649K | −10.0% of holding | +5.1% | −10.3% | 138,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 1,451 @ $42.00 | $61K | −1.1% of holding | +2.7% | −8.4% | 128,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 509 @ $42.00 | $21K | −0.4% of holding | +2.1% | −6.3% | 129,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $40.97 | $307K | −5.4% of holding | +8.1% | −3.0% | 130,242 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $41.33 | $310K | −5.2% of holding | −0.6% | −3.0% | 137,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-20 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $39.78 | $298K | −4.9% of holding | −2.1% | −0.9% | 144,298 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Kaszuba Raymond J III | officer | Withheld for tax | 705 | 7,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | WILSON BRODY J | officer | Withheld for tax | 341 | 13,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Bragdon Peter J | director | Discretionary | 1,141 | 4,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Ludford Mary E | director | Discretionary | 507 | 4,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | McDonough Sandra | director | Discretionary | 248 | 11,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Bragdon Peter J | director | Discretionary | 1,152 | 3,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Lee Karen | director | Discretionary | 1,014 | 22,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Ludford Mary E | director | Discretionary | 513 | 4,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | McDonough Sandra | director | Discretionary | 250 | 10,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Withheld for tax | 5,844 | 55,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Palfreyman Justin | director | Withheld for tax | 3,909 | 20,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Saathoff MardiLyn | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,747 | 34,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | ANDERSON DAVID HUGO | director | Withheld for tax | 3,747 | 61,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | RUSH KIMBERLY HEITING | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,000 | 27,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Saathoff MardiLyn | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,095 | 38,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | RUSH KIMBERLY HEITING | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,871 | 30,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Berge Megan H | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,485 | 5,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | WILSON BRODY J | officer | Withheld for tax | 937 | 13,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Weber David A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 937 | 1,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Kravitz Zachary D | officer | Withheld for tax | 937 | 2,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Williams Kathryn M | officer | Withheld for tax | 849 | 7,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Kaszuba Raymond J III | officer | Withheld for tax | 802 | 7,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Karney Joseph S | officer | Withheld for tax | 636 | 4,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | WILSON BRODY J | officer | Withheld for tax | 546 | 14,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Weber David A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 546 | 2,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Williams Kathryn M | officer | Withheld for tax | 533 | 7,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Rogers Melinda B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 531 | 2,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Kravitz Zachary D | officer | Withheld for tax | 207 | 3,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Fellon Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 175 | 1,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Karney Joseph S | officer | Withheld for tax | 136 | 5,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Rogers Melinda B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 132 | 2,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bragdon Peter J | director | Discretionary | 1,099 | 2,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Lee Karen | director | Discretionary | 972 | 21,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ludford Mary E | director | Discretionary | 491 | 3,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | McDonough Sandra | director | Discretionary | 240 | 10,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | WILSON BRODY J | officer | Award / grant | 1,962 | 15,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | WILSON BRODY J | officer | Award / grant | 1,104 | 13,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Kaszuba Raymond J III | officer | Award / grant | 1,689 | 8,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Karney Joseph S | officer | Award / grant | 590 | 982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Karney Joseph S | officer | Award / grant | 1,471 | 5,264 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.