NWLNewell Brands Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.69 · now $5.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NWL has typically landed between $4.37 and $7.07 — a range of −23.2% to +24.2% from the issuance price $5.69.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NWL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.37worst · -23.2%$7.07best · +24.2%
  • now $5.69 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.67 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.13–$6.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.37–$7.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−44.4%−44.4%+0.0%
2020-02-11−43.2%−43.2%+0.0%
2009-02-05−42.6%−42.6%+4.5%
3 best
2026-05-29+80.6%−4.1%+80.6%
2026-06-02+78.8%+0.0%+88.3%
2026-06-01+76.9%−2.1%+84.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.1%
n=18
Feb
42%
−5.4%
n=19
Mar
37%
−0.7%
n=19
Apr
63%
+4.3%
n=19
May
42%
−1.8%
n=19
Jun
53%
+3.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+4.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.9%
n=19
Oct
44%
−3.3%
n=18
Nov
67%
+5.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
−0.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$32026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $616K — Turner Bradford R2026-05-27: 2 insider sales, $43K — Malkoski Kristine Kay …2026-05-22: 1 insider sale, $360K — Turner Bradford R2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $410K — Huet Melanie Arlene2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $447K — Platt Tracy L2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $45K2026-05: 5 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $616K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Turner Bradford R — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Malkoski Kristine Kay — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Malkoski Kristine Kay — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Turner Bradford R — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Huet Melanie Arlene — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Platt Tracy L — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06Turner Bradford RofficerSale100,000 @ $6.16$616K−18.7% of holding+15.1%not yet — horizon still open433,398Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-27Malkoski Kristine KayofficerSale10,850 @ $3.65$40K−100.0% of holding+64.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Malkoski Kristine KayofficerSale900 @ $3.66$3K−100.0% of holding+64.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22Turner Bradford RofficerSale100,000 @ $3.60$360K−17.7% of holding+55.8%not yet — horizon still open464,449Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-08Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorSale91,000 @ $4.50$410K−99.1% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open867Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-04Platt Tracy LofficerSale96,169 @ $4.65$447K−100.0% of holding−28.5%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-05Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorSale8,800 @ $5.11$45K−14.5% of holding+21.3%−17.6%52,007Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-06Platt Tracy LofficerSale23,343 @ $10.31$241K−100.0% of holding−1.9%−43.0%0Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

276 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Posthauer Robert F.officerOption exercise4,34993,983Form 4
2026-08-25Posthauer Robert F.officerWithheld for tax1,25992,724Form 4
2026-08-25Posthauer Robert F.officerOption exercise4,3498,698Form 4
2026-07-05Turner Bradford RofficerOption exercise125,000589,449Form 4
2026-07-05Malkoski Kristine KayofficerOption exercise75,216390,462Form 4
2026-07-05Turner Bradford RofficerWithheld for tax56,051533,398Form 4
2026-07-05Malkoski Kristine KayofficerWithheld for tax33,727356,735Form 4
2026-07-05Posthauer Robert F.officerOption exercise18,10494,876Form 4
2026-07-05Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorOption exercise17,24223,772Form 4
2026-07-05Posthauer Robert F.officerWithheld for tax5,24289,634Form 4
2026-07-05Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorWithheld for tax5,14618,626Form 4
2026-07-05Turner Bradford RofficerOption exercise125,0000Form 4
2026-07-05Posthauer Robert F.officerOption exercise18,1040Form 4
2026-07-05Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorOption exercise17,2420Form 4
2026-07-05Malkoski Kristine KayofficerOption exercise75,2160Form 4
2026-06-02Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorOption exercise6,1308,360Form 4
2026-06-02Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorWithheld for tax1,8306,530Form 4
2026-06-02Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorOption exercise6,1300Form 4
2026-05-31Schmidt Robert AndrewofficerOption exercise7,28621,713Form 4
2026-05-31Schmidt Robert AndrewofficerWithheld for tax2,49619,217Form 4
2026-05-31Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorOption exercise1,9432,810Form 4
2026-05-31Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorWithheld for tax5802,230Form 4
2026-05-31Schmidt Robert AndrewofficerOption exercise7,2860Form 4
2026-05-31Huet Melanie ArlenedirectorOption exercise1,9430Form 4
2026-05-16Peterson Christopher HdirectorWithheld for tax91,6312,974,478Form 4
2026-05-16Peterson Christopher HdirectorWithheld for tax32,5632,861,760Form 4
2026-05-16Peterson Christopher HdirectorOption exercise72,6192,894,323Form 4
2026-05-16Peterson Christopher HdirectorOption exercise204,3493,066,109Form 4
2026-05-16Peterson Christopher HdirectorOption exercise72,6190Form 4
2026-05-16Peterson Christopher HdirectorOption exercise204,3490Form 4
2026-05-07RYAN BERMAN BRIDGETdirectorOption exercise30,41868,144Form 4
2026-05-07RYAN BERMAN BRIDGETdirectorOption exercise30,4180Form 4
2026-05-07RYAN BERMAN BRIDGETdirectorAward / grant39,32539,325Form 4
2026-05-07LOPEZ GERARDO IdirectorOption exercise30,418129,770Form 4
2026-05-07LOPEZ GERARDO IdirectorOption exercise30,4180Form 4
2026-05-07LOPEZ GERARDO IdirectorAward / grant39,32539,325Form 4
2026-05-07SPRIESER JUDITH AdirectorOption exercise30,41880,393Form 4
2026-05-07SPRIESER JUDITH AdirectorOption exercise30,4180Form 4
2026-05-07Stahl StephaniedirectorAward / grant39,32539,325Form 4
2026-05-07Terry Anthony EdirectorOption exercise30,41856,708Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Pramila JayapalHousesale2026-03-152023-10-31$1–15K
Peter Allen StauberHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-11-082023-10-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-10-062023-09-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-04-072023-03-14$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-06$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-28$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-23$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-23$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-27$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-06$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-27$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-28$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.