NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.45 · now $15.38 (2026-09-17, −0.5% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NWBI has typically landed between $14.00 and $17.31 — a range of −9.4% to +12.1% from the issuance price $15.45.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NWBI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$14worst · -9.4%$17.31best · +12.1%
  • now $15.38 (-0.5%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.49 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.78–$16.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14–$17.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,004 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−35.4%−35.4%+0.0%
2020-02-20−32.1%−32.1%+0.0%
2020-02-11−30.5%−30.5%+0.6%
3 best
2009-03-11+37.0%+0.0%+37.0%
2008-07-15+36.1%+0.0%+36.4%
2009-03-05+33.5%−1.7%+34.3%

5,004 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Feb
55%
−0.5%
n=20
Mar
65%
−0.8%
n=20
Apr
50%
−0.3%
n=20
May
60%
−0.1%
n=20
Jun
75%
+1.3%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.8%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.0%
n=20
Oct
65%
+2.5%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
40%
+0.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$16$112026-08-20: 2 insider purchases, $25K — Kranich Charles E. …2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $209K — Colestro James M2026-05-27: 1 insider purchase, $140K — Hunter Timothy M2026-05-01: 2 insider purchases, $119K — Bowers Urich T, Schosser Douglas M2026-04-30: 1 insider purchase, $70K — Betchkal Gregory J.2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $19K — Barnum Carey A.2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $43K — Torchio Louis J2026-01-29: 1 insider purchase, $25K — CAMPANA ROBERT M2025-12-08: 1 insider purchase, $18K — Tullio David M2025-12-05: 1 insider purchase, $49K — Hunter Timothy M2025-12-01: 1 insider purchase, $18K — Meegan John P2025-11-21: 2 insider purchases, $35K — Chadsey Deborah J Esq., Williams Amber Lee2025-11-20: 1 insider purchase, $11K — CAMPANA ROBERT M2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $157K2025-11: 3 open-market purchases, $46K2025-12: 3 open-market purchases, $85K2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $25K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $43K2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $70K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $19K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $258K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $209K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $25K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kranich Charles E. — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed same daydirector Kranich Charles E. — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed same dayofficer Colestro James M — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hunter Timothy M — Purchase on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bowers Urich T — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Schosser Douglas M — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Betchkal Gregory J. — Purchase on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Barnum Carey A. — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Torchio Louis J — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector CAMPANA ROBERT M — Purchase on 2026-01-29, filed same daydirector Tullio David M — Purchase on 2025-12-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hunter Timothy M — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Meegan John P — Purchase on 2025-12-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chadsey Deborah J Esq. — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Williams Amber Lee — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed same daydirector CAMPANA ROBERT M — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Kranich Charles E.directorPurchase1,250 @ $15.28$19K+1.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open101,636Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20Kranich Charles E.directorPurchase385 @ $15.28$6Kownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open385Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-30Colestro James MofficerSale13,274 @ $15.77$209K−26.4% of holding−4.7%not yet — horizon still open37,011Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Hunter Timothy MdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $13.97$140K+5.3% of holding+11.4%not yet — horizon still open199,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-01Bowers Urich TofficerPurchase7,000 @ $13.97$98K+18.5% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open44,901Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01Schosser Douglas MofficerPurchase1,500 @ $13.92$21K+1.9% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open81,058Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-30Betchkal Gregory J.officerPurchase5,000 @ $13.93$70Kownership Δ n/a−3.2%not yet — horizon still open5,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-30Barnum Carey A.officerSale1,351 @ $13.97$19K−18.6% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open5,915Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-06Torchio Louis JdirectorPurchase3,500 @ $12.16$43K+2.1% of holding+8.9%+15.4%171,341Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-29CAMPANA ROBERT MdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $12.62$25K+3.1% of holding+1.3%+18.4%67,366Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-08Tullio David MdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $12.27$18K+5.3% of holding−0.1%+15.5%30,051Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-05Hunter Timothy MdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $12.18$49K+2.2% of holding−1.6%+13.7%189,751Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-01Meegan John PdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $12.10$18K+7.5% of holding−0.9%+6.5%21,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21Chadsey Deborah J Esq.directorPurchase1,700 @ $11.79$20K+47.9% of holding+0.3%+7.3%5,250Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-21Williams Amber LeedirectorPurchase1,302 @ $11.37$15K+15.1% of holding+0.3%+7.3%9,944Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-20CAMPANA ROBERT MdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $11.37$11K+1.6% of holding+5.2%+12.7%65,366Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06Hunter Timothy MdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $11.66$117K+5.7% of holding+8.7%+11.7%185,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-01Paup Mark AdirectorPurchase3,500 @ $11.59$41K+5.9% of holding+6.8%+2.8%62,772Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-06Laws Richard KofficerSale9,010 @ $12.38$112K−12.4% of holding+4.4%−13.4%63,486Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-02Barnum Carey A.officerSale92 @ $12.25$1K−1.9% of holding+4.8%−12.9%4,704Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-30Barnum Carey A.officerSale230 @ $12.35$3K−4.6% of holding+2.2%−15.8%4,796Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-19Creal Thomas K IVofficerSale1,720 @ $12.61$22K−3.6% of holding−5.0%−19.9%45,482Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13Chadsey Deborah J Esq.directorSale7,200 @ $12.70$91K−14.4% of holding−4.0%−20.6%42,851Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12Laws Richard KofficerSale6,374 @ $12.67$81K−9.1% of holding−4.4%−21.3%63,355Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01Barnum Carey A.officerSale1,185 @ $12.46$15K−18.6% of holding−6.3%−24.0%5,201Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-04Paup Mark AdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $12.66$63K+10.0% of holding−2.4%−15.9%54,989Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-31Hunter Timothy MdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $13.13$131K+6.2% of holding−1.6%−13.6%171,474Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-28Fannin Timothy BdirectorSale3,500 @ $13.03$46K−13.1% of holding+0.1%−10.8%23,264Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

130 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Torchio Louis JdirectorAward / grant125,298328,792Form 4
2026-07-30Colestro James MofficerOption exercise6,52850,285Form 4
2026-07-30Colestro James MofficerOption exercise6,5280Form 4
2026-07-30Colestro James MofficerOption exercise4,5680Form 4
2026-07-30Colestro James MofficerOption exercise4,56843,757Form 4
2026-07-30Colestro James MofficerOption exercise2,17839,189Form 4
2026-07-30Colestro James MofficerOption exercise2,1780Form 4
2026-07-29Canfield Joseph D JrofficerWithheld for tax97416,540Form 4
2026-06-22DesMarteau Jacques MarcofficerWithheld for tax2,16057,242Form 4
2026-06-18Bowers Urich TofficerWithheld for tax1,58943,611Form 4
2026-06-05Paup Mark AdirectorAward / grant4,05366,840Form 4
2026-06-05Williams Amber LeedirectorAward / grant4,05313,997Form 4
2026-06-05Ballard Steven ChadofficerAward / grant47,21747,217Form 4
2026-06-05CAMPANA ROBERT MdirectorAward / grant4,05371,480Form 4
2026-06-05Chadsey Deborah J Esq.directorAward / grant4,05346,904Form 4
2026-06-05DAVIS WILBUR RdirectorAward / grant4,05386,684Form 4
2026-06-05Hunter Timothy MdirectorAward / grant4,053203,804Form 4
2026-06-05Kranich Charles E.directorAward / grant4,053100,386Form 4
2026-06-05Meegan John PdirectorAward / grant4,05384,654Form 4
2026-06-05Tullio David MdirectorAward / grant4,05334,104Form 4
2026-05-20Creal Thomas K IVofficerWithheld for tax24353,009Form 4
2026-05-20Colestro James MofficerWithheld for tax15937,011Form 4
2026-05-18Creal Thomas K IVofficerWithheld for tax13853,248Form 4
2026-05-18Colestro James MofficerWithheld for tax4137,024Form 4
2026-05-06Creal Thomas K IVofficerWithheld for tax7,39753,386Form 4
2026-05-06Creal Thomas K IVofficerOption exercise10,7331,747Form 4
2026-05-06Creal Thomas K IVofficerOption exercise10,73360,783Form 4
2026-03-20Torchio Louis JdirectorWithheld for tax4,420202,469Form 4
2026-03-20Schosser Douglas MofficerWithheld for tax3,84579,558Form 4
2026-03-20Betchkal Gregory J.officerWithheld for tax1,48488,814Form 4
2026-03-20DesMarteau Jacques MarcofficerWithheld for tax1,20259,061Form 4
2026-03-20Colestro James MofficerWithheld for tax60137,065Form 4
2026-03-20Watson Scott JofficerWithheld for tax59654,541Form 4
2026-03-20Creal Thomas K IVofficerWithheld for tax54750,050Form 4
2026-03-20Kane Kyle P.officerWithheld for tax53726,307Form 4
2026-03-20Cygnar Devin TofficerWithheld for tax49419,161Form 4
2026-03-20Barnum Carey A.officerWithheld for tax2397,266Form 4
2026-03-16Torchio Louis JdirectorWithheld for tax3,450206,889Form 4
2026-03-16Betchkal Gregory J.officerWithheld for tax1,27390,298Form 4
2026-03-16Watson Scott JofficerWithheld for tax49655,137Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.