Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.11 · now $10.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NWAX has typically landed between $10.02 and $10.24 — a range of −0.9% to +1.3% from the issuance price $10.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
141 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-01-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NWAX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.12 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.08–$10.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.02–$10.24
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-26 | −1.6% | −1.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | −1.3% | −1.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | −1.1% | −1.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-06 | +1.5% | +0.0% | +1.5% |
| 2026-05-04 | +1.4% | −0.1% | +1.4% |
| 2026-05-01 | +1.4% | −0.1% | +1.4% |
141 overlapping windows · 2026-01-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Wool Kyle Michael | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $0.01 | $2K | +11.8% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,900,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Ingargiola Luisa | director | Sale | 50,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.9% | −11.9% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Scopellite Steven | director | Sale | 50,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.9% | −11.9% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | McDonagh Theodore William | director | Sale | 50,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.9% | −11.9% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | McDonagh Theodore William | director | Sale | 50,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.9% | −11.9% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Scopellite Steven | director | Sale | 50,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.9% | −11.9% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Ingargiola Luisa | director | Sale | 50,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +2.9% | −11.9% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | New America Sponsor I LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 600,000 @ $10.00 | $6.0M | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 600,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | New America Sponsor I LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 300,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 300,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | New America Sponsor I LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 300,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 300,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | New America Sponsor I LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 300,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 300,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
1 award / exercise / gift record — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | O'Leary George | director | Other acquisition | 50,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.