Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.48 · now $10.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NVTS has typically landed between $7.20 and $16.64 — a range of −31.3% to +58.8% from the issuance price $10.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,396 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NVTS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.25 (-2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.37–$12.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.2–$16.64
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,396 windows spanning 2021-01-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-06-03 | −55.7% | −55.7% | +0.0% |
| 2022-06-02 | −54.9% | −55.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-20 | −54.5% | −54.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-08 | +325.8% | −1.1% | +325.8% |
| 2025-05-09 | +323.4% | +0.0% | +330.3% |
| 2025-05-21 | +284.8% | +0.0% | +323.6% |
1,396 overlapping windows · 2021-01-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−4.8%
n=5
Feb
50%
+3.2%
n=6
Mar
33%
−4.5%
n=6
Apr
33%
+2.3%
n=6
May
67%
+48.3%
n=6
Jun
67%
−5.3%
n=6
Jul
67%
+0.5%
n=6
Aug
33%
−5.9%
n=6
Sep
33%
−7.4%
n=6
Oct
60%
+14.1%
n=5
Nov
80%
+16.8%
n=5
Dec
40%
−2.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 664,058 @ $28.72 | $19.1M | −4.3% of holding | −36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,943,475 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $29.34 | $2.2M | −42.4% of holding | −36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,709 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Sale | 73,000 @ $28.11 | $2.1M | −83.9% of holding | −36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Sale | 35,165 @ $28.14 | $990K | −1.5% of holding | −36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,375,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Sale | 35,165 @ $28.14 | $990K | −1.5% of holding | −36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,375,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 3,060,118 @ $29.29 | $89.6M | −16.4% of holding | −37.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,607,533 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Sale | 33,649 @ $29.66 | $998K | −49.8% of holding | −37.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Allexandre Chris | director | Sale | 13,323 @ $31.81 | $424K | −1.2% of holding | −37.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,072,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Sale | 98,152 @ $10.78 | $1.1M | −11.8% of holding | +21.1% | −6.3% | 735,231 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Allexandre Chris | director | Sale | 9,236 @ $8.93 | $82K | −1.1% of holding | −0.6% | +10.4% | 813,323 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 389,096 @ $9.52 | $3.7M | −100.0% of holding | −5.2% | +19.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Sale | 12,532 @ $9.82 | $123K | −1.5% of holding | −5.2% | +19.1% | 833,383 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Saluja Dipender | director | Sale | 873,488 @ $8.10 | $7.1M | −15.5% of holding | +23.6% | +171.2% | 4,755,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Saluja Dipender | director | Sale | 315,396 @ $8.65 | $2.7M | −5.3% of holding | +15.3% | +146.5% | 5,629,024 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 179,354 @ $8.68 | $1.6M | −31.6% of holding | +15.3% | +146.5% | 389,096 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Sale | 49,651 @ $9.31 | $462K | −36.3% of holding | +2.1% | +148.3% | 86,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Sale | 78,649 @ $9.25 | $728K | −36.5% of holding | +13.0% | +148.0% | 136,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $9.25 | $463K | −18.8% of holding | +7.9% | +133.6% | 215,264 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Sale | 78,307 @ $9.77 | $765K | −8.8% of holding | +3.6% | +106.8% | 813,279 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 48,165 @ $8.50 | $409K | −100.0% of holding | +3.3% | +180.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 22,034 @ $8.51 | $188K | −27.5% of holding | +0.2% | +256.9% | 58,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 142,150 @ $8.55 | $1.2M | −63.9% of holding | −14.5% | +260.1% | 80,199 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 1,493,046 @ $8.54 | $12.8M | −87.0% of holding | −15.1% | +185.8% | 222,349 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Sale | 345 @ $7.41 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −3.4% | +267.5% | 891,586 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-05 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Sale | 96,313 @ $10.56 | $1.0M | −9.8% of holding | −5.1% | +75.1% | 891,268 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-15 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $6.11 | $3.1M | −22.6% of holding | +105.2% | +58.6% | 1,715,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 455,596 @ $6.05 | $2.8M | −17.1% of holding | +35.8% | +64.8% | 2,215,395 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 750,000 @ $5.84 | $4.4M | −21.9% of holding | +38.7% | +74.2% | 2,670,991 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 497,700 @ $5.76 | $2.9M | −12.7% of holding | +30.6% | +83.6% | 3,420,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $5.75 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | +41.1% | +44.2% | 3,918,691 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $6.05 | $3.0M | −11.3% of holding | +3.3% | +41.6% | 3,920,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Singh Ranbir | director | Purchase | 18,645,603 @ $8.79 | $163.9M | ownership Δ n/a | −30.1% | +1.9% | 18,645,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 18,645,603 @ $8.79 | $163.9M | −97.0% of holding | −30.1% | +1.9% | 568,450 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Sheridan Eugene | director | Sale | 138,668 @ $7.49 | $1.0M | −23.1% of holding | −20.9% | +2.5% | 461,332 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | Sheridan Eugene | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $7.51 | $751K | −16.7% of holding | −20.9% | +2.5% | 500,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-12 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 1,026,227 @ $7.93 | $8.1M | −18.8% of holding | −23.6% | +2.7% | 4,420,991 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $8.00 | $800K | −42.6% of holding | −23.6% | +2.7% | 134,501 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 457,488 @ $8.33 | $3.8M | −7.7% of holding | −30.5% | −0.4% | 5,463,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Sheridan Eugene | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $7.98 | $1.6M | −25.0% of holding | −30.5% | −0.4% | 600,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Sheridan Eugene | director | Sale | 161,332 @ $8.54 | $1.4M | −21.2% of holding | −30.5% | −0.4% | 600,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 21,782 @ $8.53 | $186K | −0.1% of holding | −30.5% | −0.4% | 19,192,271 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 21,782 @ $8.53 | $186K | −0.1% of holding | −30.5% | −0.4% | 19,214,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 16,285 @ $9.05 | $147K | −0.3% of holding | −30.5% | −0.4% | 5,447,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 815,165 @ $8.31 | $6.8M | −4.1% of holding | −31.5% | −0.6% | 19,235,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Moxam David | director | Sale | 78,649 @ $7.90 | $622K | −100.0% of holding | −31.5% | −0.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Sale | 45,219 @ $8.11 | $367K | −15.7% of holding | −31.5% | −0.6% | 243,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $8.12 | $162K | −30.6% of holding | −31.5% | −0.6% | 45,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Sale | 2,610 @ $8.14 | $21K | −100.0% of holding | −31.5% | −0.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 1,900,000 @ $7.35 | $14.0M | −8.5% of holding | −18.9% | +16.9% | 20,490,042 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 439,042 @ $7.80 | $3.4M | −2.1% of holding | −18.9% | +16.9% | 20,051,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Sale | 56,789 @ $7.35 | $418K | −14.4% of holding | −18.9% | +16.9% | 338,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Sale | 2,610 @ $7.36 | $19K | −100.0% of holding | −18.9% | +16.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 31,460 @ $6.83 | $215K | −100.0% of holding | +3.8% | +40.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-05 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 16,377 @ $6.43 | $105K | −100.0% of holding | +3.8% | +40.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-04 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 2,756,609 @ $6.59 | $18.2M | −31.1% of holding | −13.8% | +12.8% | 6,119,891 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Singh Ranbir | director | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $6.76 | $13.5M | −8.2% of holding | −13.8% | +12.8% | 22,390,042 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | LONG BRIAN | director | Sale | 198,900 @ $6.87 | $1.4M | −3.3% of holding | −13.8% | +12.8% | 5,920,991 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $6.33 | $317K | −32.3% of holding | +3.2% | +25.1% | 104,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | SiCPower, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 484,619 @ $6.72 | $3.3M | −1.9% of holding | +16.5% | +38.9% | 24,390,042 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Sale | 23,700 @ $6.39 | $151K | −25.0% of holding | +3.3% | +14.8% | 71,039 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saluja Dipender | director | Award / grant | 951 | 145,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Award / grant | 9,990 | 17,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | LEE DAVIN | director | Award / grant | 9,990 | 13,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | LONG BRIAN | director | Award / grant | 9,990 | 9,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Moxam David | director | Award / grant | 9,990 | 32,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Fischer Gregory Michael | director | Award / grant | 9,990 | 14,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Amoruso Cristiano | director | Award / grant | 9,990 | 34,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Award / grant | 9,990 | 43,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Gift | 6,280 | 7,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Other acquisition | 1,147,225 | 2,410,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Other acquisition | 1,147,225 | 2,410,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Other acquisition | 1,147,225 | 2,410,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Other acquisition | 1,147,225 | 2,410,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | Saluja Dipender | director | Award / grant | 864 | 144,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | LEE DAVIN | director | Award / grant | 3,430 | 3,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fischer Gregory Michael | director | Award / grant | 4,839 | 4,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Allexandre Chris | director | Award / grant | 545,267 | 545,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Allexandre Chris | director | Award / grant | 272,633 | 1,085,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Stevens Tonya | officer | Award / grant | 111,984 | 111,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Stevens Tonya | officer | Award / grant | 559,912 | 559,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Allexandre Chris | director | Award / grant | 22,559 | 822,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Award / grant | 32,636 | 845,915 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Award / grant | 663 | 891,931 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Saluja Dipender | director | Award / grant | 2,045 | 143,282 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-03 | Allexandre Chris | director | Award / grant | 800,000 | 800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,882 | 987,581 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Saluja Dipender | director | Award / grant | 40,540 | 141,237 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Amoruso Cristiano | director | Award / grant | 22,048 | 22,048 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Amoruso Cristiano | director | Award / grant | 2,586 | 24,634 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Singh Ranbir | director | Award / grant | 22,048 | 18,667,651 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Moxam David | director | Award / grant | 22,048 | 22,048 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | LONG BRIAN | director | Award / grant | 22,048 | 22,048 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | HENDRIX RICHARD J | director | Award / grant | 22,048 | 67,504 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Saluja Dipender | director | Award / grant | 22,048 | 100,697 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Wunderlich Gary Kent JR | director | Award / grant | 22,048 | 265,264 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Option exercise | 73,352 | 766,843 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Option exercise | 73,352 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-23 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Award / grant | 856,962 | 1,550,453 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Singh Ranbir | director | Award / grant | 24,158 | 197,911 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | GLICKMAN TODD | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,272 | 676,225 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.