Issued 2026-09-16 at $147.65 · now $147.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NVT has typically landed between $129.63 and $173.12 — a range of −12.2% to +17.2% from the issuance price $147.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,095 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-04-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($147.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NVT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $147.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $147.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $151.34 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $141.16–$161.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $129.63–$173.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,095 windows spanning 2018-04-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −55.1% | −55.1% | +2.5% |
| 2020-02-21 | −51.4% | −55.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −50.0% | −56.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-07 | +45.3% | +0.0% | +45.3% |
| 2026-04-06 | +44.5% | +0.0% | +44.5% |
| 2020-03-18 | +40.7% | +0.0% | +46.0% |
2,095 overlapping windows · 2018-04-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.3%
n=8
Feb
63%
+5.9%
n=8
Mar
38%
−3.8%
n=8
Apr
63%
+5.4%
n=8
May
78%
+7.6%
n=9
Jun
56%
+1.5%
n=9
Jul
67%
+2.1%
n=9
Aug
56%
+0.7%
n=9
Sep
33%
−0.9%
n=9
Oct
75%
+4.9%
n=8
Nov
75%
+6.8%
n=8
Dec
50%
−0.9%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | van der Kolk Robert J. | officer | Sale | 5,858 @ $164.32 | $963K | −17.6% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Wozniak Beth | director | Sale | 32,280 @ $164.73 | $5.3M | −35.4% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Wacker Randolph A. | officer | Sale | 22,525 @ $164.62 | $3.7M | −45.1% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Wozniak Beth | director | Sale | 5,885 @ $163.61 | $963K | −6.1% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,132 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Wozniak Beth | director | Sale | 4,856 @ $162.71 | $790K | −4.8% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,017 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Wozniak Beth | director | Sale | 3,240 @ $165.34 | $536K | −5.5% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,612 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Zawoyski Sara E | officer | Sale | 27,015 @ $172.45 | $4.7M | −21.4% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,465 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Zawoyski Sara E | officer | Sale | 2,397 @ $172.94 | $415K | −2.4% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,068 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Padmanabhan Aravind | officer | Sale | 15,942 @ $174.00 | $2.8M | −40.7% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,243 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Bennett Martha Claire | officer | Sale | 2,457 @ $170.00 | $418K | −61.6% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Bennett Martha Claire | officer | Sale | 1,321 @ $170.00 | $225K | −85.5% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 225 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Sale | 24,360 @ $167.54 | $4.1M | −37.7% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Sale | 3,111 @ $167.97 | $523K | −7.7% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Padmanabhan Aravind | officer | Sale | 6,988 @ $170.38 | $1.2M | −23.1% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,243 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Wacker Randolph A. | officer | Sale | 4,036 @ $165.57 | $668K | −7.5% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,873 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Wacker Randolph A. | officer | Sale | 58 @ $165.50 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,873 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Wozniak Beth | director | Sale | 7,597 @ $116.47 | $885K | −12.5% of holding | +1.8% | +38.2% | 52,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | CAMERON SUSAN M. | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $114.52 | $573K | −27.2% of holding | −0.1% | +40.8% | 13,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | van der Kolk Robert J. | officer | Sale | 21,500 @ $116.89 | $2.5M | −52.6% of holding | −0.5% | +34.6% | 19,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Ostling Danita K | director | Sale | 900 @ $117.98 | $106K | −15.9% of holding | −0.5% | +34.6% | 4,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | BURRIS JERRY W | director | Sale | 5,244 @ $112.27 | $589K | −10.2% of holding | −1.2% | +32.0% | 46,371 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Scheu Greg | director | Sale | 5,591 @ $104.04 | $582K | −28.0% of holding | −3.7% | +45.4% | 14,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Wozniak Beth | director | Sale | 3,705 @ $110.38 | $409K | −7.1% of holding | −4.0% | +51.6% | 48,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Wozniak Beth | director | Sale | 432 @ $110.09 | $48K | −0.9% of holding | −4.0% | +51.6% | 47,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Wacker Randolph A. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $110.08 | $550K | −15.9% of holding | −4.6% | +47.3% | 26,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Zawoyski Sara E | officer | Sale | 53,696 @ $112.68 | $6.1M | −44.6% of holding | −5.4% | +42.1% | 66,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Zawoyski Sara E | officer | Sale | 47,315 @ $112.81 | $5.3M | −41.5% of holding | −5.4% | +42.1% | 66,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Zawoyski Sara E | officer | Sale | 14,546 @ $113.02 | $1.6M | −17.9% of holding | −5.4% | +42.1% | 66,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Sale | 22,476 @ $113.06 | $2.5M | −42.4% of holding | −6.7% | +46.0% | 30,562 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Sale | 10,467 @ $113.00 | $1.2M | −25.5% of holding | −6.7% | +46.0% | 30,562 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Wozniak Beth | director | Sale | 42,331 @ $89.21 | $3.8M | −46.2% of holding | +5.4% | +22.6% | 49,196 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Leopold Diane | director | Purchase | 1,900 @ $89.84 | $171K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.7% | +17.7% | 1,900 | Form 4 · filed 156 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Leopold Diane | director | Purchase | 100 @ $90.07 | $9K | +5.3% of holding | +2.7% | +17.7% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 156 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Padmanabhan Aravind | officer | Sale | 14,534 @ $90.00 | $1.3M | −54.6% of holding | +1.9% | +15.0% | 12,063 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Padmanabhan Aravind | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $90.00 | $900K | −45.3% of holding | +1.9% | +15.0% | 12,063 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Wacker Randolph A. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $89.09 | $267K | −9.8% of holding | +1.3% | +17.0% | 27,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Sale | 17,853 @ $89.33 | $1.6M | −36.9% of holding | −0.9% | +20.7% | 30,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Zawoyski Sara E | officer | Sale | 15,861 @ $89.52 | $1.4M | −19.2% of holding | −0.9% | +20.7% | 66,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Zawoyski Sara E | officer | Sale | 6,248 @ $89.58 | $560K | −8.6% of holding | −0.9% | +20.7% | 66,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Lammers Jon D. | officer | Sale | 39,162 @ $89.42 | $3.5M | −35.6% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 70,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Lammers Jon D. | officer | Sale | 30,566 @ $89.42 | $2.7M | −30.1% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 70,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Lammers Jon D. | officer | Sale | 21,637 @ $89.62 | $1.9M | −23.4% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 70,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Parker Herbert K | director | Sale | 20,597 @ $89.88 | $1.9M | −57.7% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 15,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Lammers Jon D. | officer | Sale | 11,838 @ $89.67 | $1.1M | −14.3% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 70,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Lammers Jon D. | officer | Sale | 9,057 @ $89.32 | $809K | −11.3% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 70,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | van der Kolk Robert J. | officer | Sale | 6,493 @ $89.16 | $579K | −12.5% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 45,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | van der Kolk Robert J. | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $89.11 | $401K | −9.9% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 40,772 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Lammers Jon D. | officer | Sale | 4,442 @ $89.67 | $398K | −5.9% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 70,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Lammers Jon D. | officer | Sale | 2,992 @ $89.25 | $267K | −4.1% of holding | −3.1% | +22.6% | 70,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Sale | 4,041 @ $61.35 | $248K | −11.0% of holding | +6.4% | +62.6% | 32,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
238 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Padmanabhan Aravind | officer | Gift | 660 | 24,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | van der Kolk Robert J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,858 | 33,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | van der Kolk Robert J. | officer | Option exercise | 5,858 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wozniak Beth | director | Option exercise | 46,261 | 101,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wozniak Beth | director | Option exercise | 46,261 | 42,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Jain Nitin | officer | Withheld for tax | 283 | 19,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Leopold Diane | director | Withheld for tax | 222 | 3,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Jain Nitin | officer | Award / grant | 1,594 | 7,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Gift | 110 | 36,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | CAMERON SUSAN M. | director | Withheld for tax | 602 | 15,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | DUCKER MICHAEL L | director | Withheld for tax | 602 | 29,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | BURRIS JERRY W | director | Withheld for tax | 602 | 48,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Parker Herbert K | director | Withheld for tax | 602 | 16,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Aaholm Sherry A | director | Withheld for tax | 602 | 4,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Padmanabhan Aravind | officer | Option exercise | 2,166 | 25,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Ostling Danita K | director | Withheld for tax | 355 | 6,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Palmer Nicola | director | Withheld for tax | 355 | 18,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Scheu Greg | director | Withheld for tax | 355 | 16,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | BURRIS JERRY W | director | Award / grant | 976 | 976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopold Diane | director | Award / grant | 976 | 2,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Ostling Danita K | director | Award / grant | 976 | 976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | DUCKER MICHAEL L | director | Award / grant | 976 | 976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Padmanabhan Aravind | officer | Option exercise | 2,166 | 11,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Parker Herbert K | director | Award / grant | 976 | 976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Aaholm Sherry A | director | Award / grant | 976 | 976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Palmer Nicola | director | Award / grant | 976 | 976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | CAMERON SUSAN M. | director | Award / grant | 976 | 976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Padmanabhan Aravind | officer | Option exercise | 15,942 | 39,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Bennett Martha Claire | officer | Option exercise | 2,457 | 3,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Padmanabhan Aravind | officer | Option exercise | 15,942 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Bennett Martha Claire | officer | Option exercise | 2,457 | 9,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Option exercise | 27,471 | 64,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Gift | 210 | 37,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Heath Lynnette R | officer | Option exercise | 27,471 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Wacker Randolph A. | officer | Option exercise | 4,036 | 53,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Wacker Randolph A. | officer | Option exercise | 58 | 49,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Wacker Randolph A. | officer | Option exercise | 58 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Wacker Randolph A. | officer | Option exercise | 4,036 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Wozniak Beth | director | Gift | 3,818 | 55,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Corona Gary Louis | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,670 | 5,571 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.