Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.52 · now $20.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NVRI has typically landed between $17.74 and $23.89 — a range of −13.6% to +16.4% from the issuance price $20.52.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
57 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-05-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NVRI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.52 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.96 (+2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.83–$22.08
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.74–$23.89
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-07-13 | −12.1% | −12.1% | +4.1% |
| 2026-07-15 | −11.9% | −11.9% | +4.7% |
| 2026-07-22 | −11.6% | −14.4% | +3.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-01 | +33.1% | +0.0% | +33.1% |
| 2026-06-03 | +30.1% | +0.0% | +30.8% |
| 2026-06-05 | +18.2% | +0.0% | +20.3% |
57 overlapping windows · 2026-05-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Minan Peter Francis | director | Purchase | 2,439 @ $20.43 | $50K | +2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Minan Peter Francis | director | Purchase | 507 @ $19.50 | $10K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 97,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | HAZNEDAR CAROLANN I | director | Purchase | 4,875 @ $20.46 | $100K | +12.8% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,955 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Minan Peter Francis | director | Purchase | 8,333 @ $19.25 | $160K | +102.9% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,434 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Purchase | 51,519 @ $19.43 | $1.0M | +55.4% of holding | +30.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Purvis Edgar M Jr | director | Purchase | 14,000 @ $18.10 | $253K | +41.2% of holding | +30.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
294 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Quinn John S | director | Award / grant | 3,155 | 3,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | LAURION TIMOTHY M | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 22,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | FANANDAKIS NICHOLAS C | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 12,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | HAZNEDAR CAROLANN I | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 38,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Quinn John S | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 19,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Minan Peter Francis | director | Award / grant | 78,125 | 94,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Minan Peter Francis | director | Award / grant | 76,924 | 76,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Reitemeier Christophe | officer | Award / grant | 22,747 | 45,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Reitemeier Christophe | officer | Award / grant | 12,627 | 12,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Romaninsky Samuel Darden | officer | Award / grant | 22,212 | 40,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Romaninsky Samuel Darden | officer | Award / grant | 9,616 | 9,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lada Gary Raymond | officer | Award / grant | 17,500 | 21,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lada Gary Raymond | officer | Award / grant | 11,283 | 11,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Fenice Samuel C. | officer | Award / grant | 9,027 | 33,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Fenice Samuel C. | officer | Award / grant | 4,808 | 4,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 144,231 | 288,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 144,231 | 144,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 6,616 | 6,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 5,700 | 5,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 21,361 | 21,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 20,774 | 20,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 6,456 | 6,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 9,680 | 9,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 20,175 | 20,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 19,166 | 19,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hochman Russell C. | director | Award / grant | 26,519 | 26,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lada Gary Raymond | officer | Award / grant | 9,616 | 9,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Earl James F | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 49,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | O'Mara Rebecca Martinez | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 22,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Purvis Edgar M Jr | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 54,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GRASBERGER F NICHOLAS III | director | Disposition | 1,677,852 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lada Gary Raymond | officer | Disposition | 12,092 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lada Gary Raymond | officer | Disposition | 33,850 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kozak Jennifer Ott | officer | Disposition | 101,019 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kozak Jennifer Ott | officer | Disposition | 48,776 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kozak Jennifer Ott | officer | Disposition | 35,252 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kozak Jennifer Ott | officer | Disposition | 27,364 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GRASBERGER F NICHOLAS III | director | Disposition | 134,585 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GRASBERGER F NICHOLAS III | director | Disposition | 93,232 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GRASBERGER F NICHOLAS III | director | Disposition | 86,994 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.