NVRNVR, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6186.43 · now $6186.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NVR has typically landed between $5530.48 and $6875.11 — a range of −10.6% to +11.1% from the issuance price $6186.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6186.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NVR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6,186 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5,530worst · -10.6%$6,875best · +11.1%
  • now $6,186 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6,212 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5,928–$6,496
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5,530–$6,875
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−46.0%−46.0%+0.0%
2020-02-14−43.1%−43.1%+1.1%
2020-02-20−42.4%−43.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+42.7%+0.0%+46.6%
2009-03-04+42.6%−1.3%+44.8%
2009-03-05+42.4%−2.9%+42.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$17.3B
market cap
$385.05
EPS (TTM)
16.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$10.3B
'20'25
Net income$1.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr34.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.31
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $6,186$5,948$9,411
  • DCF (intrinsic)$7,642
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$9,172
  • Analyst target · range $6,600–$7,446$7,400
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$6,186

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+2.9%
n=18
Feb
32%
−2.8%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.0%
n=19
Apr
47%
+2.7%
n=19
May
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.0%
n=19
Jul
53%
+3.0%
n=19
Aug
63%
+2.2%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.5%
n=18
Nov
83%
+3.6%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9K$6K2026-08-07: 1 insider purchase, $405K — Oliver George2026-04-24: 1 insider purchase, $74K — DeVito Michael J2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Ross Susan Williamson2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $4.0M — Kelpy Matthew B.2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Ross Susan Williamson2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Ross Susan Williamson2025-11-03: 1 insider purchase, $99K — DeVito Michael J2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Jung Alexandra A2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $412K — Jung Alexandra A2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $4.9M — Kelpy Matthew B.2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $7.9M2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $99K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $9.0M2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $74K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $405K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Oliver George — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector DeVito Michael J — Purchase on 2026-04-24, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Ross Susan Williamson — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kelpy Matthew B. — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ross Susan Williamson — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ross Susan Williamson — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DeVito Michael J — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Jung Alexandra A — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Jung Alexandra A — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kelpy Matthew B. — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Oliver GeorgedirectorPurchase63 @ $6431.51$405Kownership Δ n/a−3.3%not yet — horizon still open63Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24DeVito Michael JdirectorPurchase11 @ $6699.50$74K+78.6% of holding−12.4%not yet — horizon still open25Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-13Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorSale200 @ $7922.06$1.6M−34.1% of holding−10.5%−30.0%386Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-10Kelpy Matthew B.officerSale500 @ $8100.00$4.0M−70.6% of holding−16.7%−34.4%208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorSale200 @ $8091.62$1.6M−34.1% of holding−14.7%−35.3%386Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorSale220 @ $8000.00$1.8M−36.3% of holding−11.3%−34.0%386Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03DeVito Michael JdirectorPurchase14 @ $7068.05$99Kownership Δ n/a+8.5%−21.7%14Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26Jung Alexandra AdirectorSale200 @ $8082.44$1.6M−72.7% of holding−4.3%−15.3%75Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-22Jung Alexandra AdirectorSale50 @ $8231.74$412K−40.0% of holding−5.9%−15.7%75Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13Kelpy Matthew B.officerSale600 @ $8100.00$4.9M−74.3% of holding−0.5%−8.7%208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorSale125 @ $7850.28$981K−24.5% of holding+2.1%−11.1%386Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11ECKERT THOMAS DdirectorSale500 @ $7529.89$3.8M−47.6% of holding+4.1%+3.5%550Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10ECKERT THOMAS DdirectorSale143 @ $7515.60$1.1M−12.0% of holding+5.4%−1.0%1,050Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

48 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-30Martinez Melquiades R.directorGift29162Form 4
2026-05-29Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise238624Form 4
2026-05-29Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise2380Form 4
2026-05-14Bredow Eugene JamesofficerDiscretionary60140Form 4
2026-05-14BAILEY SALLIE BdirectorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-14Jung Alexandra AdirectorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-14Martinez Melquiades R.directorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-14ROSIER WILLIAM GRADYdirectorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-14Oliver GeorgedirectorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-14FESTA ALFRED EdirectorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-14ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTTdirectorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-14Kelpy Matthew B.officerAward / grant272272Form 4
2026-05-14Malzahn Daniel DavidofficerAward / grant1,3351,335Form 4
2026-05-14Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-14PREISER DAVID AdirectorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-14Bredow Eugene JamesofficerAward / grant2,6192,619Form 4
2026-05-14SAVILLE PAUL CofficerAward / grant2,6192,619Form 4
2026-05-14DeVito Michael JdirectorAward / grant154154Form 4
2026-05-06Bredow Eugene JamesofficerDiscretionary8080Form 4
2026-02-20ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTTdirectorGift5774Form 4
2026-02-13Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise200586Form 4
2026-02-13Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise200238Form 4
2026-02-10Kelpy Matthew B.officerOption exercise500708Form 4
2026-02-10Kelpy Matthew B.officerOption exercise5001,500Form 4
2026-02-05Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise200586Form 4
2026-02-05Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise200438Form 4
2026-02-04Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise220606Form 4
2026-02-04Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise220638Form 4
2025-12-16ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTTdirectorGift50779Form 4
2025-12-15Malzahn Daniel DavidofficerGift313,793Form 4
2025-12-12PREISER DAVID AdirectorGift35204Form 4
2025-10-01Oliver GeorgedirectorAward / grant338338Form 4
2025-08-26Jung Alexandra AdirectorOption exercise200275Form 4
2025-08-26Jung Alexandra AdirectorOption exercise200930Form 4
2025-08-13Kelpy Matthew B.officerOption exercise600808Form 4
2025-08-13Kelpy Matthew B.officerOption exercise6000Form 4
2025-08-04Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise125511Form 4
2025-08-04Ross Susan WilliamsondirectorOption exercise125858Form 4
2025-08-01Malzahn Daniel DavidofficerGift3313,796Form 4
2025-07-01DeVito Michael JdirectorAward / grant342342Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-04-212026-03-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-19$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-02-132025-01-13$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.