Issued 2026-09-25 at $38.80 · now $38.80 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, NVO has typically landed between $32.59 and $45.12 — a range of −16.0% to +16.3% from the issuance price $38.80.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,010 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($38.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NVO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $38.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $38.8 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.39 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.78–$42.01
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.59–$45.12
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-26 | −40.4% | −40.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | −40.2% | −40.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-30 | −38.3% | −38.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-20 | +31.4% | +0.0% | +31.4% |
| 2020-03-23 | +29.9% | +0.0% | +29.9% |
| 2025-12-22 | +29.4% | +0.0% | +29.6% |
5,010 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-12-14 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Research Study on How Well Different Doses of the Medicine NNC0662-0419 Help People Living With Overweight or Obesity (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2026-12-14 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: ARTEMIS - A Research Study to Look at How Ziltivekimab Works Compared to Placebo in People With a Heart Attack (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-01-14 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Research Study on How Well Different Doses of the Medicine UBT251 Help People Living With Overweight or Obesity (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-05-12 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Weight Loss in People Living With Overweight or Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes Following Treatment With Cagrilintide (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-02-29 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Research Study to Look at Long-term Treatment With a Medicine Called NNC6019-0001 for People Who Have Heart Failure Due to Transthyretin Amyloidosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-08-14 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Research Study Investigating How Well the Medicine NNC0487-0111 Helps People With Excess Body Weight and Knee Osteoarthritis Lose Weight and Reduce Pain (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2029-06-29 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: CLEOPATTRA: A Research Study to Look at the Effects of Treatment With a Medicine Called Coramitug (NNC6019-0001) in People With Heart Failure Due to Transthyretin Amyloid (ATTR) Amyloidosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2029-07-23 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Research Study to Look at How Well NNC0487-0111 Works Compared to Placebo in People With Heart Failure and Obesity (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
No Form 4 filings for this company are in our record yet.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.