NVMINova Ltd.Technology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $339.25 · now $339.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NVMI has typically landed between $278.29 and $426.24 — a range of −18.0% to +25.6% from the issuance price $339.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($339.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NVMI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $339.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$278.29worst · -18.0%$426.24best · +25.6%
  • now $339.25 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $346.83 (+2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $314.31–$379.35
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $278.29–$426.24
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-21−45.3%−45.3%+0.0%
2008-11-28−45.0%−54.0%+0.0%
2008-12-03−44.7%−51.1%+0.0%
3 best
2009-02-25+95.1%+0.0%+95.1%
2009-11-20+88.9%+0.0%+88.9%
2009-08-20+84.1%+0.0%+84.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+4.2%
n=20
Feb
60%
+3.8%
n=20
Mar
60%
+2.9%
n=20
Apr
55%
+1.1%
n=20
May
80%
+4.8%
n=20
Jun
60%
+3.3%
n=20
Jul
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
45%
+3.2%
n=20
Oct
60%
+0.7%
n=20
Nov
75%
+7.2%
n=20
Dec
65%
+5.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$606$2372026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $513K — Waisman Gabriel2026-07-02: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Waisman Gabriel2026-06-23: 2 insider sales, $487K — Sagiv Sarit, Simon Zehava2026-06-22: 4 insider sales, $1.4M — Oppenhaim Eitan, Sagiv Sarit, Simon Zehava, Garty Yaniv2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $781K — Oppenhaim Eitan2026-05-18: 3 insider sales, $658K — Simon Zehava, Sagiv Sarit, Garty Yaniv2026-04-02: 1 insider sale, $23K — Garty Yaniv2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $23K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-06: 6 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $1.5M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $513K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Waisman Gabriel — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Waisman Gabriel — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Sagiv Sarit — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Simon Zehava — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Oppenhaim Eitan — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sagiv Sarit — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Simon Zehava — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Garty Yaniv — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Oppenhaim Eitan — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Simon Zehava — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sagiv Sarit — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Garty Yaniv — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Garty Yaniv — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Waisman GabrielofficerSale1,500 @ $342.27$513K−5.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open27,214Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-02Waisman GabrielofficerSale2,966 @ $501.30$1.5M−9.4% of holding−18.0%not yet — horizon still open28,714Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-23Sagiv SaritdirectorSale454 @ $536.52$244K−18.9% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open1,951Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-23Simon ZehavadirectorSale454 @ $536.52$244K−18.9% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open1,951Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22Oppenhaim EitandirectorSale1,290 @ $581.20$750K−16.7% of holding−22.5%not yet — horizon still open6,421Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22Sagiv SaritdirectorSale366 @ $581.20$213K−13.2% of holding−22.5%not yet — horizon still open2,405Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22Simon ZehavadirectorSale366 @ $581.20$213K−13.2% of holding−22.5%not yet — horizon still open2,405Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22Garty YanivdirectorSale366 @ $581.20$213K−15.4% of holding−22.5%not yet — horizon still open2,006Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-26Oppenhaim EitandirectorSale1,504 @ $519.48$781K−18.4% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open6,668Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Simon ZehavadirectorSale426 @ $514.49$219K−14.9% of holding+13.6%not yet — horizon still open2,437Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Sagiv SaritdirectorSale426 @ $514.49$219K−14.9% of holding+13.6%not yet — horizon still open2,437Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Garty YanivdirectorSale426 @ $514.49$219K−17.3% of holding+13.6%not yet — horizon still open2,038Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-02Garty YanivdirectorSale55 @ $425.00$23K−2.2% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open2,464Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

10 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Kizner GuyofficerAward / grant1,2976,981Form 4
2026-09-01Wolfing ShayofficerAward / grant1,25925,273Form 4
2026-07-01Waisman GabrielofficerAward / grant7,05631,680Form 4
2026-06-18Oppenhaim EitandirectorAward / grant1,0437,711Form 4
2026-06-18Simon ZehavadirectorAward / grant3342,771Form 4
2026-06-18Sagiv SaritdirectorAward / grant3342,771Form 4
2026-06-18Cohen RaanandirectorAward / grant3346,048Form 4
2026-06-18COHEN AVIdirectorAward / grant3348,702Form 4
2026-06-18Garty YanivdirectorAward / grant3342,372Form 4
2026-06-01Waisman GabrielofficerAward / grant3,00024,624Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.