Nvidia and South Korea's SK Group unveiled an initiative exceeding $500 billion spanning large-scale AI data centers and next-generation memory.
Read →Issued 2026-08-13 at $225.30 · now $225.30 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, NVDA has typically landed between $183.98 and $291.45 — a range of −18.3% to +29.4% from the issuance price $225.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($225.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NVDA has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $225.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $225.3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $232.5 (+3.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $211.1–$253.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $183.98–$291.45
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,662 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-13. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-06-05 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-06-09 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-06-06 | −50.0% | −50.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-12-15 | +65.3% | +0.0% | +65.3% |
| 2010-12-22 | +64.5% | −0.7% | +64.5% |
| 2010-12-28 | +63.8% | +0.0% | +65.5% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$5.0T
market cap
$6.53
EPS (TTM)
31.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-26
next earnings
Revenue$215.9B
'21'26
Net income$120.1B
'21'26
Free cash flow$96.7B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr55.6%
'21'26
ROE · by yr76.3%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.07
'21'26
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$239.30
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$223.36
- Analyst target · range $218.00–$500.00$300.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$225.30
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+5.3%
n=18
Feb
68%
+5.3%
n=19
Mar
53%
+2.9%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.8%
n=19
May
79%
+9.5%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Aug
79%
+6.3%
n=19
Sep
61%
+0.2%
n=18
Oct
61%
+2.2%
n=18
Nov
78%
+6.5%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
11 award/RSU grants, 5 tax-withholding dispositions and 3 gifts excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+28 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 53.7% vs 53.2% · n=26,833
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $50–100K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-26 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-26 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-26 | $1–15K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-07-08 | 2026-06-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Meuser | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-06-02 | 2026-05-08 | $100–250K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-06-02 | 2026-05-08 | $100–250K |
What's happening · recap
claude-sonnet-5Generated 2026-07-25 · stored before display, never written live
On 2026-07-24, Nvidia and South Korea's SK Group announced a joint initiative exceeding $500 billion for AI data centers and next-generation memory, while Nvidia also joined other technology firms urging changes to AI-related policy; other coverage that day discussed semiconductor sector price movement and commentary without new company-specific developments.
In the news
Nvidia joined Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Palantir Technologies and more than 20 other technology companies in urging U.S. policymakers regarding AI-related restrictions.
Read →A commentary piece discussed Broadcom and Micron as alternative technology companies amid Nvidia's recent share performance.
Read →A technical analysis piece described Nvidia shares holding key support with a chart pattern that analysts said could open the door to higher levels if resistance is broken.
Read →A market commentary segment discussed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's public activity and broader economic resilience amid Mag 7 earnings season.
Read →A commentary piece described the author's continued purchases of Nvidia shares during the current earnings season, citing economic reasoning.
Read →An analysis of the semiconductor sector noted a July 2026 pullback following strong 2026 performance, attributing it to profit-taking, valuation concerns, and unwinding of leveraged positions.
Read →A discussion segment addressed differing views on Nvidia's competitive position and valuation, referencing Jensen Huang's strategy of investing in other AI-related companies.
Read →Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.