Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.87 · now $21.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NVCT has typically landed between $16.65 and $31.92 — a range of −23.9% to +45.9% from the issuance price $21.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,135 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-02-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NVCT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.09 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.43–$24.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.65–$31.92
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-12 | −57.7% | −57.7% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-11 | −56.4% | −56.4% | +1.6% |
| 2024-11-13 | −56.0% | −56.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-28 | +180.0% | −8.6% | +180.0% |
| 2026-05-26 | +175.9% | −7.8% | +175.9% |
| 2026-05-27 | +167.9% | −8.3% | +174.6% |
1,135 overlapping windows · 2022-02-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $18.32 | $916K | +1.6% of holding | +24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,186,576 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | BENTSUR RON | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $20.00 | $250K | +0.3% of holding | +24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,688,424 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Sanchez Juan | director | Purchase | 13,000 @ $5.79 | $75K | +20.0% of holding | +17.6% | +96.7% | 78,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Kaplan Matthew L. | director | Purchase | 11,000 @ $5.84 | $64K | +9.7% of holding | +17.6% | +96.7% | 124,760 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | BENTSUR RON | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.72 | $29K | +0.1% of holding | +17.6% | +96.7% | 3,525,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 72,836 @ $6.28 | $457K | +2.4% of holding | −5.5% | +25.3% | 3,136,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,034 @ $6.15 | $215K | +1.2% of holding | −2.1% | +34.5% | 3,063,740 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 46,900 @ $6.06 | $284K | +1.6% of holding | +3.1% | +38.5% | 3,028,706 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,603 @ $7.99 | $45K | +0.2% of holding | −6.4% | −16.0% | 2,981,806 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 28,043 @ $8.05 | $226K | +1.0% of holding | −6.4% | −18.9% | 2,976,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,399 @ $8.11 | $44K | +0.2% of holding | −9.2% | −19.4% | 2,948,160 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 21,167 @ $8.11 | $172K | +0.7% of holding | +2.1% | −45.2% | 2,942,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,400 @ $8.65 | $21K | +0.1% of holding | −10.1% | −57.8% | 2,911,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $8.65 | $865 | +0.0% of holding | −10.1% | −57.8% | 2,909,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100 @ $8.65 | $865 | +0.0% of holding | −10.1% | −57.8% | 2,909,132 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50 @ $8.65 | $433 | +0.0% of holding | −10.1% | −57.8% | 2,908,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,614 @ $8.64 | $83K | +0.3% of holding | −5.7% | −56.9% | 2,908,882 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,703 @ $8.40 | $23K | +0.1% of holding | −5.7% | −56.9% | 2,899,268 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,104 @ $8.64 | $87K | +0.4% of holding | −6.0% | −55.9% | 2,896,565 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,340 @ $8.40 | $20K | +0.1% of holding | −6.0% | −55.9% | 2,886,461 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 240,000 @ $5.00 | $1.2M | +9.1% of holding | +16.7% | −15.1% | 2,884,121 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-24 | BENTSUR RON | director | Purchase | 4,500 @ $4.65 | $21K | +0.1% of holding | +36.7% | +57.3% | 3,270,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Mosseri Marlio Charles | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 17,000 @ $4.70 | $80K | +0.7% of holding | +17.9% | +71.8% | 2,612,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
17 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Carson Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 230,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hoberman Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 168,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kaplan Matthew L. | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 159,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sanchez Juan | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 113,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Oliviero James F III | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 122,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | BENTSUR RON | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 3,675,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Shemesh Shay | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 1,793,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Poradosu Enrique | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 1,806,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Carson Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 61,200 | 200,118 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Sanchez Juan | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 65,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Oliviero James F III | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 87,828 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Kaplan Matthew L. | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 113,760 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Hoberman Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 133,140 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Poradosu Enrique | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 1,656,319 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | BENTSUR RON | director | Award / grant | 250,000 | 3,520,924 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Carson Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 51,000 | 138,918 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Shemesh Shay | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 1,643,068 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.