Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.22 · now $16.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NVCR has typically landed between $11.60 and $21.25 — a range of −28.5% to +31.0% from the issuance price $16.22.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,733 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-10-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NVCR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.22 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.64 (-3.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.68–$17.6
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.6–$21.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,733 windows spanning 2015-10-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-12-31 | −53.9% | −53.9% | +1.7% |
| 2015-12-30 | −51.7% | −51.7% | +0.0% |
| 2016-01-04 | −51.1% | −54.3% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-18 | +100.5% | +0.0% | +112.4% |
| 2024-11-15 | +99.3% | −2.4% | +107.4% |
| 2024-04-19 | +98.9% | −2.2% | +98.9% |
2,733 overlapping windows · 2015-10-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
27%
−2.6%
n=11
Feb
45%
−0.2%
n=11
Mar
45%
−3.5%
n=11
Apr
55%
+10.8%
n=11
May
82%
+13.3%
n=11
Jun
36%
−3.4%
n=11
Jul
45%
−0.6%
n=11
Aug
64%
+3.5%
n=11
Sep
36%
−2.7%
n=11
Oct
20%
−9.2%
n=10
Nov
64%
+7.7%
n=11
Dec
55%
+6.5%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 34,273 @ $17.93 | $615K | −6.9% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 459,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | HILLEMAN JERYL L | director | Sale | 2,945 @ $15.77 | $46K | −17.5% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,861 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Hung David | director | Sale | 2,945 @ $15.77 | $46K | −12.6% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,465 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | LEUNG GABRIEL | director | Sale | 2,945 @ $15.77 | $46K | −3.2% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | VERNON W ANTHONY | director | Sale | 2,945 @ $15.77 | $46K | −1.5% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,657 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Scannell Timothy J | director | Sale | 2,945 @ $15.77 | $46K | −17.1% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Ocean Allyson J | director | Sale | 2,945 @ $15.77 | $46K | −20.6% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Stafford Kristin | director | Sale | 2,945 @ $15.77 | $46K | −20.6% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Sale | 43,246 @ $13.77 | $596K | −37.3% of holding | −22.8% | +9.9% | 72,832 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Brackmann Christoph | officer | Sale | 6,412 @ $13.31 | $85K | −3.4% of holding | −17.4% | +20.6% | 182,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Weinberg Uri | officer | Sale | 6,412 @ $13.31 | $85K | −2.3% of holding | −17.4% | +20.6% | 267,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 5,607 @ $13.31 | $75K | −1.1% of holding | −17.4% | +20.6% | 493,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Sale | 5,377 @ $13.31 | $72K | −4.4% of holding | −17.4% | +20.6% | 116,078 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Puri Michal Nath | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $13.31 | $15K | −0.5% of holding | −17.4% | +20.6% | 201,322 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Leupin Nicolas | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $13.31 | $15K | −1.1% of holding | −17.4% | +20.6% | 102,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | DOYLE WILLIAM F | director | Sale | 50,557 @ $12.79 | $646K | −12.6% of holding | −15.1% | +18.1% | 349,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | DOYLE WILLIAM F | director | Sale | 21,330 @ $13.43 | $286K | −6.1% of holding | −15.1% | +18.1% | 328,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 7,232 @ $13.49 | $98K | −2.0% of holding | −14.4% | +18.2% | 349,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Weinberg Uri | officer | Sale | 3,272 @ $13.33 | $44K | −1.4% of holding | −14.4% | +18.2% | 223,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Sale | 408 @ $13.49 | $6K | −0.5% of holding | −14.4% | +18.2% | 76,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 9,734 @ $13.66 | $133K | −2.8% of holding | −16.6% | +17.6% | 338,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Weinberg Uri | officer | Sale | 7,461 @ $13.84 | $103K | −3.4% of holding | −16.6% | +17.6% | 213,757 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Sale | 1,555 @ $13.66 | $21K | −2.0% of holding | −16.6% | +17.6% | 76,751 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Puri Michal Nath | officer | Sale | 1,441 @ $13.66 | $20K | −0.9% of holding | −16.6% | +17.6% | 162,322 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Leupin Nicolas | officer | Sale | 1,029 @ $13.66 | $14K | −1.0% of holding | −16.6% | +17.6% | 104,079 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Cordova Ashley | officer | Purchase | 81,550 @ $12.22 | $997K | +22.9% of holding | +14.0% | −0.3% | 437,569 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Brackmann Christoph | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $11.63 | $116K | +8.3% of holding | +2.9% | +0.4% | 131,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Brackmann Christoph | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $11.60 | $58K | +3.8% of holding | +2.9% | +0.4% | 136,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Brackmann Christoph | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $11.50 | $58K | +3.7% of holding | +2.9% | +0.4% | 141,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | VERNON W ANTHONY | director | Sale | 999 @ $17.35 | $17K | −0.6% of holding | −1.3% | −50.9% | 167,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Scannell Timothy J | director | Sale | 999 @ $17.32 | $17K | −14.2% of holding | −1.3% | −50.9% | 6,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | LEUNG GABRIEL | director | Sale | 999 @ $17.31 | $17K | −1.2% of holding | −1.3% | −50.9% | 81,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Hung David | director | Sale | 999 @ $17.30 | $17K | −7.6% of holding | −1.3% | −50.9% | 12,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Ocean Allyson J | director | Sale | 999 @ $17.29 | $17K | −24.6% of holding | −1.3% | −50.9% | 3,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Stafford Kristin | director | Sale | 999 @ $17.28 | $17K | −24.6% of holding | −1.3% | −50.9% | 3,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | HILLEMAN JERYL L | director | Sale | 999 @ $17.26 | $17K | −15.2% of holding | −1.3% | −50.9% | 5,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Madden Martin J. | director | Sale | 999 @ $17.19 | $17K | −5.1% of holding | −1.3% | −50.9% | 18,674 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 21,717 @ $17.22 | $374K | −10.9% of holding | −0.1% | −46.9% | 176,931 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 6,600 @ $17.99 | $119K | −3.7% of holding | −0.1% | −46.9% | 170,331 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 1,879 @ $19.01 | $36K | −1.1% of holding | −0.1% | −46.9% | 168,452 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-03 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Sale | 592 @ $17.91 | $11K | −0.7% of holding | −11.3% | −50.5% | 83,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 2,527 @ $18.54 | $47K | −1.7% of holding | −1.2% | −44.1% | 143,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Cordova Ashley | officer | Sale | 2,053 @ $18.54 | $38K | −1.0% of holding | −1.2% | −44.1% | 204,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Weinberg Uri | officer | Sale | 268 @ $18.92 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | −1.2% | −44.1% | 166,243 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Sale | 250 @ $18.54 | $5K | −0.8% of holding | −1.2% | −44.1% | 29,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Weinberg Uri | officer | Sale | 4,326 @ $18.78 | $81K | −2.5% of holding | −1.0% | −44.6% | 166,822 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 2,770 @ $18.28 | $51K | −1.9% of holding | −1.0% | −44.6% | 146,200 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Cordova Ashley | officer | Sale | 2,341 @ $18.28 | $43K | −1.1% of holding | −1.0% | −44.6% | 206,058 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Sale | 368 @ $18.28 | $7K | −1.2% of holding | −1.0% | −44.6% | 29,423 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Weinberg Uri | officer | Sale | 311 @ $18.31 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | −1.0% | −44.6% | 166,511 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 10,277 @ $19.92 | $205K | −6.4% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 150,959 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Cordova Ashley | officer | Sale | 9,345 @ $19.92 | $186K | −4.3% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 210,207 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Sale | 1,989 @ $20.55 | $41K | −1.3% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 148,970 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Cordova Ashley | officer | Sale | 1,808 @ $20.55 | $37K | −0.9% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 208,399 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Sale | 1,379 @ $19.92 | $27K | −4.4% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 30,058 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Puri Michal Nath | officer | Sale | 1,162 @ $19.92 | $23K | −1.1% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 108,931 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Leupin Nicolas | officer | Sale | 830 @ $19.92 | $17K | −1.6% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 50,294 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Sale | 267 @ $20.55 | $5K | −0.9% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 29,791 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Puri Michal Nath | officer | Sale | 225 @ $20.55 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 108,706 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Leupin Nicolas | officer | Sale | 161 @ $20.55 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +2.8% | −49.0% | 50,133 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
94 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Award / grant | 1,905 | 461,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Puri Michal Nath | officer | Award / grant | 1,905 | 203,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ben Arye Barak | officer | Award / grant | 1,299 | 243,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Danziger Asaf | director | Award / grant | 268 | 416,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Madden Martin J. | director | Award / grant | 11,610 | 30,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Madden Martin J. | director | Award / grant | 16,999 | 16,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | VERNON W ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 11,610 | 209,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | HILLEMAN JERYL L | director | Award / grant | 11,610 | 25,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hung David | director | Award / grant | 11,610 | 32,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hung David | director | Award / grant | 16,999 | 16,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | LEUNG GABRIEL | director | Award / grant | 11,610 | 101,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | LEUNG GABRIEL | director | Award / grant | 16,999 | 16,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | VERNON W ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 16,999 | 16,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Scannell Timothy J | director | Award / grant | 11,610 | 25,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Scannell Timothy J | director | Award / grant | 16,999 | 16,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ocean Allyson J | director | Award / grant | 11,610 | 22,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ocean Allyson J | director | Award / grant | 16,999 | 16,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Stafford Kristin | director | Award / grant | 11,610 | 22,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Stafford Kristin | director | Award / grant | 16,999 | 16,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | HILLEMAN JERYL L | director | Award / grant | 16,999 | 16,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | VERNON W ANTHONY | director | Option exercise | 21,500 | 200,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | VERNON W ANTHONY | director | Option exercise | 21,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Cordova Ashley | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,638 | 422,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Weinberg Uri | officer | Award / grant | 73,340 | 73,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Puri Michal Nath | officer | Award / grant | 40,100 | 202,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Puri Michal Nath | officer | Award / grant | 58,672 | 58,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Award / grant | 216,388 | 216,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | DOYLE WILLIAM F | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | DOYLE WILLIAM F | director | Award / grant | 200,284 | 400,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | DOYLE WILLIAM F | director | Award / grant | 258,445 | 258,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | DOYLE WILLIAM F | director | Award / grant | 30,072 | 288,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Weinberg Uri | officer | Award / grant | 50,125 | 273,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Leonard Frank X | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 499,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Ben Arye Barak | officer | Award / grant | 50,125 | 242,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Ben Arye Barak | officer | Award / grant | 73,340 | 73,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Brackmann Christoph | officer | Award / grant | 55,137 | 189,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Brackmann Christoph | officer | Award / grant | 80,674 | 80,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Award / grant | 45,112 | 121,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Award / grant | 7,518 | 7,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Paravasthu Mukund | officer | Award / grant | 58,488 | 66,006 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.