NVAX · TickerCove

NVAXNovavax, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.35 · now $9.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NVAX has typically landed between $6.09 and $12.93 — a range of −34.8% to +38.3% from the issuance price $9.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,994 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$9.35 · 63% of range

$6.22 low$11.19 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−5.3%

typical move · IQR 27.5%

−34.8%worst (p90)+38.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NVAX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $9.35 (+0.0%)
typical $8.86 (-5.3%)
middle 50% $7.57–$10.14
90% range $6.09–$12.93

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,994 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2016-09-15	−81.7%	−82.5%	+0.0%
2016-09-14	−81.2%	−82.4%	+0.4%
2016-09-12	−80.2%	−82.2%	+2.0%
3 best
2024-05-03	+325.4%	−9.3%	+325.4%
2024-05-06	+310.9%	−6.1%	+340.5%
2024-05-07	+294.1%	−3.0%	+354.9%

4,994 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+8.1%

n=20

Feb

55%

+7.6%

n=20

Mar

20%

−10.3%

n=20

Apr

50%

+6.5%

n=20

May

60%

+20.2%

n=20

Jun

45%

+9.1%

n=20

Jul

65%

+6.9%

n=20

Aug

55%

+5.2%

n=20

Sep

40%

−8.6%

n=20

Oct

25%

−3.8%

n=20

Nov

40%

+3.1%

n=20

Dec

25%

−7.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2024-12-31	YOUNG JAMES F	director	Sale	5,400 @ $8.00	$43K	−9.4% of holding	+2.9%	−24.3%	51,760	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-24	YOUNG JAMES F	director	Sale	4,600 @ $8.48	$39K	−7.4% of holding	+11.3%	−29.3%	57,160	Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2024-12-13	King Rachel K.	director	Sale	4,150 @ $9.02	$37K	−21.9% of holding	−4.6%	−30.4%	14,770	Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

176 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-20	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Option exercise	18,880	0	Form 4
2026-06-20	MCGLYNN MARGARET G	director	Option exercise	18,880	0	Form 4
2026-06-20	Rodgers Richard J	director	Option exercise	18,880	0	Form 4
2026-06-20	King Rachel K.	director	Option exercise	18,880	0	Form 4
2026-06-20	MOTT DAVID M	director	Option exercise	18,880	0	Form 4
2026-06-20	Alton Gregg H	director	Option exercise	18,880	0	Form 4
2026-06-20	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Option exercise	18,880	73,220	Form 4
2026-06-20	King Rachel K.	director	Option exercise	18,880	44,070	Form 4
2026-06-20	Rodgers Richard J	director	Option exercise	18,880	47,370	Form 4
2026-06-20	Rodgers Richard J	director	Option exercise	18,880	47,370	Form 4
2026-06-20	MOTT DAVID M	director	Option exercise	18,880	79,770	Form 4
2026-06-20	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Option exercise	18,880	73,220	Form 4
2026-06-20	King Rachel K.	director	Option exercise	18,880	44,070	Form 4
2026-06-20	MCGLYNN MARGARET G	director	Option exercise	18,880	44,468	Form 4
2026-06-20	Alton Gregg H	director	Option exercise	18,880	47,685	Form 4
2026-06-20	Alton Gregg H	director	Option exercise	18,880	47,685	Form 4
2026-06-20	MOTT DAVID M	director	Option exercise	18,880	79,770	Form 4
2026-06-20	MCGLYNN MARGARET G	director	Option exercise	18,880	44,468	Form 4
2026-06-18	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Award / grant	14,180	14,180	Form 4
2026-06-18	Alton Gregg H	director	Award / grant	21,270	21,270	Form 4
2026-06-18	Alton Gregg H	director	Award / grant	14,180	14,180	Form 4
2026-06-18	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Award / grant	21,270	21,270	Form 4
2026-06-18	King Rachel K.	director	Award / grant	21,270	21,270	Form 4
2026-06-18	King Rachel K.	director	Award / grant	14,180	14,180	Form 4
2026-06-18	MCGLYNN MARGARET G	director	Award / grant	21,270	21,270	Form 4
2026-06-18	MCGLYNN MARGARET G	director	Award / grant	14,180	14,180	Form 4
2026-06-18	MOTT DAVID M	director	Award / grant	21,270	21,270	Form 4
2026-06-18	MOTT DAVID M	director	Award / grant	14,180	14,180	Form 4
2026-06-18	Newton Charles W.	director	Award / grant	21,270	21,270	Form 4
2026-06-18	Newton Charles W.	director	Award / grant	14,180	14,180	Form 4
2026-06-18	Shiver John W.	director	Award / grant	21,270	21,270	Form 4
2026-06-18	Shiver John W.	director	Award / grant	14,180	14,180	Form 4
2026-06-18	Rodgers Richard J	director	Award / grant	21,270	21,270	Form 4
2026-06-18	Rodgers Richard J	director	Award / grant	14,180	14,180	Form 4
2026-04-25	Newton Charles W.	director	Option exercise	9,520	9,520	Form 4
2026-04-25	Newton Charles W.	director	Option exercise	9,520	19,040	Form 4
2026-04-14	Walker Robert Edward	officer	Award / grant	99,500	99,500	Form 4
2026-04-14	Walker Robert Edward	officer	Award / grant	66,000	6,600	Form 4
2026-03-10	Shiver John W.	director	Option exercise	7,947	7,947	Form 4
2026-03-10	Shiver John W.	director	Option exercise	7,947	15,893	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i