Issued 2026-09-16 at $260.68 · now $260.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NUE has typically landed between $221.11 and $308.56 — a range of −15.2% to +18.4% from the issuance price $260.68.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($260.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NUE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $260.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $260.68 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $267.07 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $246.82–$287.32
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $221.11–$308.56
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −41.5% | −41.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-16 | −41.5% | −41.5% | +8.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −38.1% | −38.1% | +2.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +63.2% | +0.0% | +85.2% |
| 2008-11-21 | +52.1% | +0.0% | +67.1% |
| 2008-12-01 | +50.3% | +0.0% | +52.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$78.98
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$241.06
- Analyst target · range $224.00–$283.00$251.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$260.68
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 25,898 @ $268.52 | $7.0M | −15.8% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,256 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 5,127 @ $274.00 | $1.4M | −7.6% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,920 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 2,612 @ $274.42 | $717K | −4.2% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,308 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 102 @ $269.29 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,154 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Batterbee Thomas J. | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $261.02 | $1.0M | −19.9% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 3,968 @ $256.96 | $1.0M | −4.8% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Hollatz John J | officer | Sale | 5,522 @ $258.57 | $1.4M | −5.3% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,865 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Hollatz John J | officer | Sale | 5,038 @ $258.33 | $1.3M | −4.9% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,865 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | QUERY KENNETH REX | officer | Sale | 8,380 @ $251.42 | $2.1M | −10.7% of holding | −11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,834 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | QUERY KENNETH REX | officer | Sale | 5,149 @ $251.30 | $1.3M | −7.4% of holding | −11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,685 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Spicer Randy J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $225.00 | $563K | −10.9% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 21,954 @ $227.58 | $5.0M | −12.2% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,648 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 16,239 @ $226.84 | $3.7M | −8.3% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 9,366 @ $228.63 | $2.1M | −5.9% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,282 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 4,441 @ $229.32 | $1.0M | −3.0% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 143,841 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Ford Bradley | officer | Sale | 1,940 @ $232.11 | $450K | −4.2% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Ford Bradley | officer | Sale | 300 @ $232.23 | $70K | −0.7% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,649 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 8,438 @ $226.10 | $1.9M | −11.8% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,871 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Keller Michael D | officer | Sale | 4,554 @ $225.86 | $1.0M | −21.3% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,834 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 1,558 @ $225.93 | $352K | −2.1% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 100 @ $225.94 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,309 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Needham Daniel R. | officer | Sale | 7,739 @ $226.00 | $1.7M | −7.9% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,724 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Hanners Noah C | officer | Sale | 6,472 @ $226.50 | $1.5M | −11.4% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,377 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Needham Daniel R. | officer | Sale | 5,149 @ $226.00 | $1.2M | −5.4% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,724 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Sumoski David A | officer | Sale | 32,824 @ $225.66 | $7.4M | −11.9% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 243,583 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Sumoski David A | officer | Sale | 244 @ $226.41 | $55K | −0.1% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 243,339 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 6,454 @ $162.01 | $1.0M | −4.1% of holding | +25.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 152,687 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 5,046 @ $162.40 | $819K | −3.3% of holding | +25.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | QUERY KENNETH REX | officer | Sale | 7,452 @ $196.02 | $1.5M | −8.9% of holding | −11.6% | +27.9% | 76,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 7,568 @ $188.50 | $1.4M | −10.1% of holding | −6.5% | +35.9% | 67,711 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $181.07 | $1.4M | −10.0% of holding | −1.2% | +40.8% | 67,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Needham Daniel R. | officer | Sale | 3,881 @ $178.00 | $691K | −4.2% of holding | +1.5% | +37.8% | 88,298 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Batterbee Thomas J. | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $165.28 | $331K | −10.0% of holding | +8.2% | +41.0% | 17,952 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 5,950 @ $157.89 | $939K | −8.1% of holding | +12.4% | +43.9% | 67,711 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $157.99 | $790K | −3.6% of holding | +12.4% | +43.9% | 134,913 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Hollatz John J | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $149.86 | $749K | −4.8% of holding | +11.5% | +45.3% | 98,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Hollatz John J | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $149.93 | $300K | −2.0% of holding | +11.5% | +45.3% | 96,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 9,042 @ $151.28 | $1.4M | −10.9% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 73,661 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 1,082 @ $151.51 | $164K | −1.2% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 89,095 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 510 @ $151.67 | $77K | −0.6% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 88,217 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 257 @ $151.62 | $39K | −0.3% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 88,727 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 70 @ $151.57 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 88,984 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 25 @ $151.73 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 88,174 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 25 @ $151.56 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 89,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 18 @ $151.70 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 88,199 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 15 @ $151.53 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 89,080 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Sale | 1 @ $151.55 | $152 | −0.0% of holding | +7.3% | +45.6% | 89,079 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Keller Michael D | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $148.41 | $890K | −21.0% of holding | −11.6% | +12.2% | 22,552 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Keller Michael D | officer | Sale | 88 @ $148.43 | $13K | −0.4% of holding | −11.6% | +12.2% | 22,464 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | QUERY KENNETH REX | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $144.90 | $1.4M | −10.6% of holding | −3.7% | +21.2% | 84,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Needham Daniel R. | officer | Sale | 7,200 @ $146.00 | $1.1M | −7.2% of holding | −3.7% | +21.2% | 92,179 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 21,172 @ $143.18 | $3.0M | −12.7% of holding | +1.9% | +15.0% | 145,897 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Behr Allen C | officer | Sale | 8,021 @ $143.38 | $1.2M | −8.8% of holding | +1.9% | +15.0% | 82,703 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 5,947 @ $144.03 | $857K | −4.1% of holding | +1.9% | +15.0% | 139,950 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 2,674 @ $142.23 | $380K | −1.6% of holding | +1.9% | +15.0% | 167,069 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 37 @ $144.67 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | +1.9% | +15.0% | 139,913 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | QUERY KENNETH REX | officer | Sale | 7,088 @ $130.40 | $924K | −7.0% of holding | +7.0% | +14.3% | 94,080 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | QUERY KENNETH REX | officer | Sale | 2,912 @ $130.30 | $379K | −2.8% of holding | +7.0% | +14.3% | 101,168 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Needham Daniel R. | officer | Sale | 7,088 @ $127.87 | $906K | −6.7% of holding | +6.2% | +15.7% | 99,379 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Topalian Leon J | director | Sale | 23,935 @ $119.91 | $2.9M | −12.1% of holding | −5.6% | +3.7% | 173,296 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
225 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Topalian Leon J | director | Gift | 1,800 | 136,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Topalian Leon J | director | Option exercise | 26,000 | 164,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Behr Allen C | officer | Option exercise | 7,739 | 67,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Behr Allen C | officer | Option exercise | 7,739 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Topalian Leon J | director | Option exercise | 26,000 | 145,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Gift | 2,409 | 81,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hollatz John J | officer | Option exercise | 5,522 | 103,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hollatz John J | officer | Option exercise | 5,038 | 102,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hollatz John J | officer | Option exercise | 5,522 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hollatz John J | officer | Option exercise | 5,038 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Topalian Leon J | director | Withheld for tax | 7,620 | 136,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Topalian Leon J | director | Withheld for tax | 6,003 | 130,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Topalian Leon J | director | Withheld for tax | 4,092 | 126,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | QUERY KENNETH REX | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,048 | 78,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Behr Allen C | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,048 | 59,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sumoski David A | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,048 | 240,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hollatz John J | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,048 | 98,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,048 | 84,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Needham Daniel R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,048 | 86,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,401 | 81,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ford Bradley | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,401 | 40,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sumoski David A | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,401 | 237,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Behr Allen C | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,401 | 57,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hanners Noah C | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,401 | 47,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hollatz John J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,401 | 95,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | QUERY KENNETH REX | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,401 | 76,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Needham Daniel R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,401 | 84,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Laxton Stephen D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,219 | 80,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sumoski David A | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,219 | 236,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Spicer Randy J | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 18,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hanners Noah C | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 46,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Needham Daniel R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 83,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ford Bradley | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 39,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | QUERY KENNETH REX | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 75,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hollatz John J | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 94,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Behr Allen C | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 56,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | CLAYTON NORMA | director | Award / grant | 755 | 5,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hanners Noah C | officer | Withheld for tax | 599 | 49,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ford Bradley | officer | Withheld for tax | 599 | 43,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Spicer Randy J | officer | Withheld for tax | 471 | 19,699 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-27 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-07-07 | 2025-06-16 | $100–250K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-07-07 | 2025-06-27 | $100–250K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-06-09 | 2025-05-12 | $100–250K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-06-09 | 2025-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-10 | $100–250K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-05 | $15–50K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-31 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.