Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.29 · now $17.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NTSK has typically landed between $12.08 and $23.14 — a range of −30.1% to +33.8% from the issuance price $17.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
229 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-09-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NTSK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.87 (-2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.11–$19.63
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.08–$23.14
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-22 | −40.6% | −40.6% | +3.2% |
| 2026-01-23 | −35.0% | −39.4% | +5.3% |
| 2026-01-06 | −33.5% | −33.5% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-11 | +63.8% | +0.0% | +63.8% |
| 2026-06-17 | +55.0% | +0.0% | +63.6% |
| 2026-06-15 | +53.2% | −1.0% | +62.0% |
229 overlapping windows · 2025-09-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~1 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,621 @ $14.90 | $158K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,621 @ $14.90 | $158K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Griffith William J.G. | director | Purchase | 64,771 @ $12.42 | $805K | +7.6% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 916,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | ICONIQ Strategic Partners VIII Holdings, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 64,771 @ $12.42 | $805K | +7.6% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 916,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Griffith William J.G. | director | Purchase | 241,628 @ $12.26 | $3.0M | +39.6% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 851,919 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | ICONIQ Strategic Partners VIII Holdings, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 241,628 @ $12.26 | $3.0M | +39.6% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 851,919 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 219,075 @ $12.23 | $2.7M | −100.0% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 219,075 @ $12.23 | $2.7M | −100.0% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Griffith William J.G. | director | Purchase | 610,291 @ $11.82 | $7.2M | ownership Δ n/a | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 610,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | ICONIQ Strategic Partners VIII Holdings, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 610,091 @ $11.82 | $7.2M | +305045.5% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 610,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,621 @ $11.70 | $124K | −100.0% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,621 @ $11.70 | $124K | −100.0% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | ICONIQ Strategic Partners VIII Holdings, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200 @ $11.66 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 336,173 @ $9.00 | $3.0M | −100.0% of holding | +53.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 336,173 @ $9.00 | $3.0M | −100.0% of holding | +53.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 336,173 @ $9.00 | $3.0M | −100.0% of holding | +53.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Janmohamed Arif | director | Sale | 1,313,827 @ $9.19 | $12.1M | −79.6% of holding | +44.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 336,173 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,313,827 @ $9.19 | $12.1M | −79.6% of holding | +44.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 336,173 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,313,827 @ $9.19 | $12.1M | −79.6% of holding | +44.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 336,173 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
281 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 3,034,693 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 10,621 | 10,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 792,813 | 792,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 792,813 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 3,034,693 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 792,813 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 792,813 | 792,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 10,621 | 10,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners Select, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 14,161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Lightspeed Venture Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,034,693 | 3,034,693 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.