Issued 2026-09-16 at $176.64 · now $176.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NTRS has typically landed between $155.72 and $201.01 — a range of −11.8% to +13.8% from the issuance price $176.64.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($176.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NTRS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $176.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $176.64 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $179.36 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $169.67–$189.04
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $155.72–$201.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-10 | −39.2% | −39.2% | +4.2% |
| 2020-02-11 | −38.1% | −38.1% | +0.2% |
| 2020-02-13 | −37.9% | −37.9% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +45.7% | +0.0% | +54.1% |
| 2008-11-19 | +34.2% | −10.7% | +37.5% |
| 2008-12-01 | +33.1% | +0.0% | +34.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$33.2B
market cap
$11.65
EPS (TTM)
15.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-21
next earnings
Revenue$14.3B
'20'25
Net income$1.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr13.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.27
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$393.43
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$190.85
- Analyst target · range $148.00–$194.00$179.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$176.64
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
+0.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.0%
n=19
May
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
53%
−1.3%
n=19
Sep
26%
−2.3%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.7%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.2%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.5%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | South Thomas A | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $184.90 | $333K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 92,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Purchase | 255 @ $179.57 | $46K | +3.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Hallinan Aengus | officer | Sale | 2,555 @ $167.10 | $427K | −19.5% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Hallinan Aengus | officer | Sale | 1,113 @ $167.96 | $187K | −10.5% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Purchase | 225 @ $166.41 | $37K | +2.8% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,145 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Fox David W Jr | officer | Sale | 13 @ $165.74 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,575 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-28 | Fox David W Jr | officer | Sale | 19,987 @ $166.16 | $3.3M | −51.8% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Bellows Clive | officer | Sale | 2,800 @ $165.02 | $462K | −9.0% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,217 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Gibson Guy | officer | Sale | 3,009 @ $142.39 | $428K | −9.3% of holding | +3.5% | +17.3% | 29,332 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Fox David W Jr | officer | Sale | 3,255 @ $143.89 | $468K | −18.3% of holding | +2.6% | +15.3% | 14,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Fox David W Jr | officer | Sale | 1,450 @ $144.05 | $209K | −6.7% of holding | +1.9% | +19.0% | 20,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Bellows Clive | officer | Sale | 1,148 @ $145.26 | $167K | −3.3% of holding | −3.0% | +19.5% | 34,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Gibson Guy | officer | Sale | 1,043 @ $147.43 | $154K | −2.9% of holding | −3.0% | +19.5% | 35,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Petrino Richard | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $148.91 | $149K | +42.9% of holding | −5.7% | +12.4% | 3,332 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Purchase | 245 @ $151.85 | $37K | +3.7% of holding | −2.8% | +10.0% | 6,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Cherecwich Peter | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $149.62 | $3.7M | −48.8% of holding | −2.7% | +14.6% | 26,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | South Thomas A | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $139.03 | $695K | −6.5% of holding | +2.7% | +14.4% | 71,888 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Landers John | officer | Sale | 766 @ $124.35 | $95K | −9.5% of holding | +12.1% | +24.8% | 7,313 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | FRADKIN STEVEN L | officer | Sale | 4,688 @ $128.00 | $600K | −3.0% of holding | +2.7% | +16.0% | 150,908 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | FRADKIN STEVEN L | officer | Sale | 4,688 @ $128.00 | $600K | −10.6% of holding | +2.7% | +16.0% | 39,659 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Levy Susan Cohen | officer | Sale | 20,414 @ $127.92 | $2.6M | −26.9% of holding | +3.1% | +18.0% | 55,434 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Levy Susan Cohen | officer | Sale | 7,177 @ $128.74 | $924K | −12.9% of holding | +3.1% | +18.0% | 48,257 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Purchase | 3,891 @ $128.57 | $500K | +139.2% of holding | +3.1% | +18.0% | 6,686 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Purchase | 270 @ $126.66 | $34K | +10.7% of holding | +4.4% | +27.7% | 2,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Purchase | 256 @ $126.34 | $32K | +11.3% of holding | +1.4% | +9.6% | 2,525 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Parker Teresa | officer | Sale | 7,602 @ $131.21 | $997K | −9.6% of holding | −1.1% | +6.3% | 71,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | FRADKIN STEVEN L | officer | Sale | 3,775 @ $132.50 | $500K | −2.4% of holding | −2.7% | +5.9% | 155,596 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-29 | FRADKIN STEVEN L | officer | Sale | 5,680 @ $132.11 | $750K | −3.4% of holding | −1.8% | +5.4% | 159,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | FRADKIN STEVEN L | officer | Sale | 8,775 @ $129.52 | $1.1M | −5.0% of holding | +0.3% | +7.2% | 165,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | FRADKIN STEVEN L | officer | Sale | 3,450 @ $129.37 | $446K | −7.2% of holding | +0.3% | +7.2% | 44,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Hallinan Aengus | officer | Sale | 5 @ $104.84 | $528 | −0.0% of holding | +7.5% | +7.2% | 11,807 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Fox David W Jr | officer | Sale | 5,076 @ $105.55 | $536K | −26.6% of holding | +0.2% | +7.2% | 13,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Conway Kelley | officer | Sale | 500 @ $105.28 | $53K | −3.9% of holding | +0.2% | +7.2% | 12,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Parker Teresa | officer | Sale | 6,467 @ $100.62 | $651K | −7.5% of holding | +3.2% | +11.3% | 79,391 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Bellows Clive | officer | Sale | 3,300 @ $99.95 | $330K | −10.3% of holding | +2.9% | +10.2% | 28,736 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Purchase | 112 @ $91.62 | $10K | +5.2% of holding | +8.5% | +13.2% | 2,269 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | South Thomas A | officer | Sale | 3,804 @ $113.00 | $430K | −4.4% of holding | −4.7% | +9.4% | 81,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Landers John | officer | Sale | 900 @ $111.44 | $100K | −10.5% of holding | −1.9% | +8.8% | 7,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Karpinski Jane | officer | Sale | 2,262 @ $111.33 | $252K | −11.6% of holding | −2.5% | +9.7% | 17,236 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Tyler Jason J. | director | Sale | 2,237 @ $112.67 | $252K | −3.7% of holding | +0.6% | +11.0% | 58,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Cherecwich Peter | officer | Sale | 26,132 @ $112.36 | $2.9M | −49.6% of holding | −0.8% | +11.5% | 26,586 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
259 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Hunstad Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 622 | 25,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | SMITH DAVID BYRON JR | director | Gift | 1,120 | 87,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Harrison Dean M | director | Award / grant | 131 | 34,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thompson Donald | director | Award / grant | 126 | 31,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | CROWN SUSAN | director | Award / grant | 76 | 38,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tribbett Charles A | director | Award / grant | 70 | 35,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SLARK MARTIN P | director | Award / grant | 62 | 22,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Klevorn Marcy S | director | Award / grant | 57 | 13,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mehta Siddharth N | director | Award / grant | 27 | 12,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dhandapani Chandra | director | Award / grant | 26 | 6,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Petrino Richard | director | Award / grant | 5 | 4,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Harrison Dean M | director | Award / grant | 259 | 34,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thompson Donald | director | Award / grant | 216 | 31,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Dhandapani Chandra | director | Award / grant | 201 | 6,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hallinan Aengus | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,707 | 13,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | South Thomas A | officer | Gift | 320 | 94,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | South Thomas A | officer | Gift | 1,300 | 95,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | SMITH DAVID BYRON JR | director | Gift | 1,200 | 86,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | SLARK MARTIN P | director | Award / grant | 35 | 21,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Klevorn Marcy S | director | Award / grant | 35 | 12,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Dhandapani Chandra | director | Award / grant | 35 | 5,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Harrison Dean M | director | Award / grant | 35 | 33,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thompson Donald | director | Award / grant | 35 | 30,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | CROWN SUSAN | director | Award / grant | 35 | 37,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Mehta Siddharth N | director | Award / grant | 35 | 11,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Petrino Richard | director | Award / grant | 17 | 3,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Tribbett Charles A | director | Award / grant | 989 | 35,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thompson Donald | director | Award / grant | 989 | 31,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Klevorn Marcy S | director | Award / grant | 989 | 13,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Dhandapani Chandra | director | Award / grant | 989 | 6,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Moritz Robert Edward Jr. | director | Award / grant | 989 | 7,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Henderson Jay L | director | Award / grant | 989 | 989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Petrino Richard | director | Award / grant | 989 | 4,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Mehta Siddharth N | director | Award / grant | 989 | 12,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | SLARK MARTIN P | director | Award / grant | 989 | 22,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Harrison Dean M | director | Award / grant | 989 | 34,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | CROWN SUSAN | director | Award / grant | 989 | 38,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | SMITH DAVID BYRON JR | director | Award / grant | 989 | 989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Harrison Dean M | director | Award / grant | 149 | 33,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Thompson Donald | director | Award / grant | 143 | 30,313 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2025-07-28 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.