NTIC · TickerCove

NTICNorthern Technologies International CorporationBasic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.72 · now $7.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NTIC has typically landed between $6.65 and $8.87 — a range of −13.9% to +15.0% from the issuance price $7.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.72 · 15% of range

$7.34 low$9.88 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 9.3%

−13.9%worst (p90)+15.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NTIC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.72 (+0.0%)
typical $7.63 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $7.27–$7.99
90% range $6.65–$8.87

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−57.6%	−57.6%	+0.1%
2020-02-13	−51.7%	−51.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-24	−50.3%	−57.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-05-21	+109.7%	+0.0%	+132.6%
2008-05-23	+109.4%	+0.0%	+126.1%
2008-05-16	+109.0%	−4.4%	+123.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+2.6%

n=20

Feb

40%

+0.4%

n=20

Mar

40%

−3.0%

n=20

Apr

35%

−2.1%

n=20

May

55%

+6.1%

n=20

Jun

50%

+2.7%

n=20

Jul

60%

+3.7%

n=20

Aug

35%

−1.0%

n=20

Sep

40%

−0.8%

n=20

Oct

60%

+2.9%

n=20

Nov

40%

+0.3%

n=20

Dec

60%

+1.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-30	LYNCH G PATRICK	director	Sale	16,070 @ $8.00	$129K	−13.2% of holding	−1.8%	not yet — horizon still open	105,284	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29	LYNCH G PATRICK	director	Sale	2 @ $8.10	$16	−0.0% of holding	−4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	121,354	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-20	NIGON RICHARD	director	Sale	12,000 @ $8.00	$96K	−20.3% of holding	−2.8%	not yet — horizon still open	47,148	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06	von Falkenhausen Konstantin	director	Purchase	1,100 @ $7.23	$8K	+6.4% of holding	−5.8%	−6.9%	18,219	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-25	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $7.45	$7K	+14.4% of holding	−8.3%	−18.9%	7,954	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-04	Ramdas Gautam	officer	Award / grant	15,278	15,278	Form 4
2026-09-04	Ramdas Gautam	officer	Award / grant	43,805	118,932	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kemp Sarah E.	director	Award / grant	6,188	22,458	Form 4
2026-09-01	Lee Sunggyu	director	Award / grant	6,188	9,507	Form 4
2026-09-01	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Award / grant	6,188	20,940	Form 4
2026-09-01	LYNCH G PATRICK	director	Award / grant	40,257	40,257	Form 4
2026-09-01	von Falkenhausen Konstantin	director	Award / grant	15,044	15,044	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pinho Cristina Lucia Duarte	director	Award / grant	6,188	16,698	Form 4
2026-09-01	Narayan Ramani	director	Award / grant	15,044	15,044	Form 4
2026-09-01	WOLSFELD MATTHEW C	officer	Award / grant	29,755	29,755	Form 4
2026-09-01	NIGON RICHARD	director	Award / grant	7,426	54,574	Form 4
2026-07-29	LYNCH G PATRICK	director	Option exercise	16,072	121,356	Form 4
2026-07-29	LYNCH G PATRICK	director	Option exercise	16,072	0	Form 4
2026-07-20	NIGON RICHARD	director	Option exercise	12,000	59,148	Form 4
2026-07-20	NIGON RICHARD	director	Option exercise	12,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	WOLSFELD MATTHEW C	officer	Option exercise	11,879	180,135	Form 4
2026-07-01	WOLSFELD MATTHEW C	officer	Withheld for tax	9,169	170,966	Form 4
2026-07-01	WOLSFELD MATTHEW C	officer	Option exercise	11,879	0	Form 4
2026-02-11	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	3	14,752	Form 4
2026-02-11	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	2	14,749	Form 4
2025-11-12	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	3	14,747	Form 4
2025-11-12	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	3	14,744	Form 4
2025-09-01	Narayan Ramani	director	Award / grant	16,287	16,287	Form 4
2025-09-01	von Falkenhausen Konstantin	director	Award / grant	16,287	16,287	Form 4
2025-09-01	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Award / grant	6,739	14,741	Form 4
2025-09-01	Pinho Cristina Lucia Duarte	director	Award / grant	6,739	10,510	Form 4
2025-09-01	Kemp Sarah E.	director	Award / grant	6,739	16,270	Form 4
2025-09-01	WOLSFELD MATTHEW C	officer	Award / grant	32,559	32,559	Form 4
2025-09-01	NIGON RICHARD	director	Award / grant	8,086	47,148	Form 4
2025-09-01	LYNCH G PATRICK	director	Award / grant	44,051	44,051	Form 4
2025-09-01	Lee Sunggyu	director	Award / grant	16,287	16,287	Form 4
2025-08-13	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	3	8,002	Form 4
2025-08-13	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	3	8,000	Form 4
2025-07-24	NIGON RICHARD	director	Option exercise	12,000	49,935	Form 4
2025-07-24	NIGON RICHARD	director	Withheld for tax	10,873	39,062	Form 4
2025-07-24	NIGON RICHARD	director	Option exercise	12,000	0	Form 4
2025-05-14	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	3	7,997	Form 4
2025-05-14	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	3	7,994	Form 4
2025-02-12	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	13	7,991	Form 4
2025-02-12	Calderon Nancy E.	director	Code L	6	7,978	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i