Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.99 · now $2.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NTHI has typically landed between $1.73 and $4.82 — a range of −42.1% to +61.2% from the issuance price $2.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
341 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-04-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NTHI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.99 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.95 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.46–$3.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.73–$4.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 341 windows spanning 2025-04-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-05-30 | −53.7% | −53.7% | +3.5% |
| 2025-05-29 | −51.6% | −51.6% | +1.5% |
| 2025-05-22 | −49.5% | −49.5% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-19 | +132.5% | +0.0% | +132.5% |
| 2025-08-20 | +124.5% | +0.0% | +126.4% |
| 2025-08-21 | +106.9% | +0.0% | +109.5% |
341 overlapping windows · 2025-04-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+12.1%
n=1
Feb
100%
+10.2%
n=1
Mar
0%
−31.4%
n=1
Apr
0%
−36.9%
n=1
May
100%
+12.8%
n=2
Jun
0%
−26.5%
n=2
Jul
50%
+7.1%
n=2
Aug
100%
+46.5%
n=2
Sep
50%
−8.6%
n=2
Oct
100%
+7.9%
n=1
Nov
0%
−8.7%
n=1
Dec
0%
−7.6%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 35,000 @ $3.30 | $115K | +1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,183,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $3.96 | $59K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,148,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | CHEN THOMAS C | director | Purchase | 5,242 @ $3.81 | $20K | +27.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | GARNETT KEITHLY | director | Purchase | 257 @ $3.89 | $1K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 242,357 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 37,000 @ $3.67 | $136K | +1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,133,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | CHEN THOMAS C | director | Purchase | 5,556 @ $3.60 | $20K | +40.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,261 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | CHEN THOMAS C | director | Purchase | 12,757 @ $5.49 | $70K | +1345.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,705 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 9,000 @ $5.54 | $50K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,096,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $4.37 | $13K | +0.1% of holding | −36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,087,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | CHEN THOMAS C | director | Purchase | 2,472 @ $4.04 | $10K | +0.4% of holding | −36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 583,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | CHEN THOMAS C | director | Purchase | 33,787 @ $3.85 | $130K | +6.2% of holding | −19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 581,059 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $3.79 | $45K | +0.4% of holding | −19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,084,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.16 | $42K | +0.3% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,072,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.52 | $45K | +0.3% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,062,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-23 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.90 | $49K | +0.3% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,052,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-23 | Neman-Ebrahim Yousha | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $4.88 | $2K | +0.4% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,760 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.89 | $49K | +0.3% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,042,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.19 | $26K | +0.2% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,032,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | SUH, DAVID JR. | officer | Purchase | 200 @ $5.00 | $1K | +0.2% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 111,866 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.61 | $56K | +0.3% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,027,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $6.32 | $32K | +0.2% of holding | −22.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,017,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $6.09 | $122K | +0.7% of holding | −39.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,012,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $6.51 | $39K | +0.2% of holding | +10.5% | −48.0% | 2,992,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $5.98 | $120K | +0.7% of holding | +38.0% | −31.9% | 2,982,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $6.50 | $26K | +0.1% of holding | +38.0% | −31.9% | 2,986,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Neman-Ebrahim Yousha | officer | Purchase | 1,100 @ $6.69 | $7K | +0.8% of holding | +24.8% | −29.0% | 134,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $7.39 | $15K | +0.1% of holding | −53.6% | −33.3% | 1,762,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-22 | CHEN THOMAS C | director | Purchase | 2,709 @ $7.38 | $20K | +0.5% of holding | −53.9% | −31.7% | 551,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | GARNETT KEITHLY | director | Purchase | 675 @ $7.29 | $5K | +0.3% of holding | −53.9% | −31.7% | 240,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | CHEN THOMAS C | director | Purchase | 2,759 @ $7.25 | $20K | +0.5% of holding | −40.9% | −20.6% | 548,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | GARNETT KEITHLY | director | Purchase | 135 @ $7.23 | $976 | +0.1% of holding | −36.4% | −5.4% | 240,225 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 3,510 @ $16.87 | $59K | +0.2% of holding | −29.8% | +7.5% | 1,760,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $7.30 | $11K | +0.1% of holding | −23.6% | +9.6% | 1,756,490 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $7.27 | $7K | +0.1% of holding | −25.7% | +43.1% | 1,754,990 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 990 @ $7.01 | $7K | +0.1% of holding | −16.0% | +37.9% | 1,753,990 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | GARNETT KEITHLY | director | Purchase | 90 @ $7.01 | $631 | −0.0% of holding | −16.0% | +37.9% | 330,000 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Delshad Jim | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $7.22 | $36K | +9.9% of holding | +4.9% | +48.1% | 55,310 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 1,400 @ $7.23 | $10K | +0.1% of holding | +4.9% | +48.1% | 1,753,000 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | CHEN THOMAS C | director | Purchase | 400 @ $7.00 | $3K | +0.1% of holding | +4.9% | +48.1% | 546,200 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-11 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Purchase | 1,600 @ $7.51 | $12K | +0.1% of holding | −12.6% | +18.3% | 1,751,600 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Delshad Jim | director | Purchase | 50 @ $6.92 | $346 | +0.1% of holding | −6.1% | +22.0% | 50,310 | Form 4 · filed 32 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | GARNETT KEITHLY | director | Purchase | 300 @ $5.38 | $2K | +0.1% of holding | −14.9% | +17.6% | 241,200 | Form 4 · filed 374 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Delshad Jim | director | Purchase | 50 @ $16.05 | $802 | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,260 | Form 4 · filed 54 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
19 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | SHOMALI NASIM | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | SHOMALI NASIM | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | SUH, DAVID JR. | officer | Award / grant | 111,666 | 111,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | SUH, DAVID JR. | officer | Award / grant | 58,334 | 58,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | SUH, DAVID JR. | officer | Award / grant | 58,334 | 58,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | SUH, DAVID JR. | officer | Award / grant | 111,666 | 111,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Award / grant | 1,200,000 | 2,962,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Award / grant | 1,200,000 | 2,962,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Neman-Ebrahim Yousha | officer | Award / grant | 67,000 | 67,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Neman-Ebrahim Yousha | officer | Award / grant | 133,000 | 133,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | CHIANG MING-FU (ALAN) | director | Other acquisition | 5,994 | 324,688 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | Heshmatpour Amir F | director | Other acquisition | 3,996 | 216,459 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | Delshad Jim | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,160 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | WALTERS PATRICK | officer | Other acquisition | 1,231 | 66,669 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | CHIANG MING-FU (ALAN) | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 390,216 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | CHEN THOMAS C | director | Other acquisition | 4,076 | 220,787 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | GIANNOTTA STEVEN L. | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,160 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | GARNETT KEITHLY | director | Other acquisition | 687 | 37,231 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | GARNETT KEITHLY | director | Other acquisition | 687 | 37,231 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.