NTGR · TickerCove

NTGRNETGEAR, Inc.Technology · Communication Equipmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.72 · now $22.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NTGR has typically landed between $19.06 and $27.08 — a range of −16.1% to +19.2% from the issuance price $22.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$22.72 · 18% of range

$19.87 low$36.01 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.1%

typical move · IQR 15.0%

−16.1%worst (p90)+19.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NTGR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $22.72 (+0.0%)
typical $22.47 (-1.1%)
middle 50% $20.76–$24.17
90% range $19.06–$27.08

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-25	−41.3%	−41.3%	+0.0%
2008-09-26	−41.2%	−41.2%	+0.6%
2008-09-29	−39.1%	−39.9%	+2.9%
3 best
2020-03-18	+62.5%	+0.0%	+65.3%
2020-03-16	+45.6%	−7.9%	+49.7%
2020-03-19	+45.5%	+0.0%	+47.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.2%

n=20

Feb

25%

−3.7%

n=20

Mar

60%

+1.0%

n=20

Apr

40%

+0.0%

n=20

May

60%

−0.0%

n=20

Jun

55%

−1.5%

n=20

Jul

65%

+5.1%

n=20

Aug

65%

+0.7%

n=20

Sep

45%

+1.3%

n=20

Oct

45%

+3.3%

n=20

Nov

65%

+2.1%

n=20

Dec

65%

+3.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-31	Badjate Pramod	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $24.09	$48K	−1.3% of holding	−15.1%	not yet — horizon still open	154,073	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-31	Badjate Pramod	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $23.45	$23K	−0.6% of holding	−15.1%	not yet — horizon still open	156,073	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02	Durr Laura	director	Sale	1,000 @ $26.76	$27K	−2.3% of holding	−19.4%	not yet — horizon still open	42,059	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Durr Laura	director	Sale	2,000 @ $25.94	$52K	−4.4% of holding	−11.7%	not yet — horizon still open	43,059	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Goli Shravan	director	Sale	1,840 @ $27.05	$50K	−6.6% of holding	−11.7%	not yet — horizon still open	25,857	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Butterfass Sarah	director	Sale	1,570 @ $26.77	$42K	−3.8% of holding	−11.7%	not yet — horizon still open	40,087	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Goli Shravan	director	Sale	1,541 @ $26.69	$41K	−5.3% of holding	−11.7%	not yet — horizon still open	27,697	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Butterfass Sarah	director	Sale	1,134 @ $27.08	$31K	−2.8% of holding	−11.7%	not yet — horizon still open	38,953	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01	Badjate Pramod	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $25.47	$76K	−1.8% of holding	+2.5%	not yet — horizon still open	165,513	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-02	Badjate Pramod	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $20.97	$63K	−2.0% of holding	+5.3%	+6.2%	144,586	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19	Badjate Pramod	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $24.60	$98K	−2.5% of holding	−3.0%	−7.4%	155,361	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-03	McLindin Graeme	officer	Sale	1,205 @ $34.26	$41K	−3.8% of holding	−17.3%	−27.2%	30,808	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-09	Maiorino Bradley	director	Sale	13,063 @ $35.26	$461K	−18.8% of holding	−18.6%	−37.3%	56,356	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-29	Goli Shravan	director	Sale	2,047 @ $29.95	$61K	−6.5% of holding	+4.1%	−29.3%	29,238	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-22	Goli Shravan	director	Sale	10,527 @ $26.07	$274K	−24.5% of holding	+1.5%	−33.2%	32,515	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-22	Goli Shravan	director	Sale	1,230 @ $26.41	$32K	−3.8% of holding	+1.5%	−33.2%	31,285	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-01	McLindin Graeme	officer	Sale	417 @ $22.62	$9K	−1.3% of holding	+16.6%	−19.7%	32,013	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13	Durr Laura	director	Sale	4,387 @ $28.39	$125K	−8.9% of holding	+0.8%	−25.3%	45,059	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13	McLindin Graeme	officer	Sale	2,377 @ $28.38	$67K	−3.7% of holding	+0.8%	−25.3%	61,208	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12	Durr Laura	director	Sale	4,388 @ $29.50	$129K	−8.2% of holding	−3.1%	−28.2%	49,446	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29	Butterfass Sarah	director	Sale	5,848 @ $28.89	$169K	−12.3% of holding	−6.7%	−28.1%	41,657	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-02	Murray Bryan	officer	Sale	1,696 @ $28.42	$48K	−0.9% of holding	+3.2%	+3.8%	178,945	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-02	Murray Bryan	officer	Sale	975 @ $27.52	$27K	−0.5% of holding	+3.2%	+3.8%	180,641	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-14	Murray Bryan	officer	Sale	3,848 @ $23.92	$92K	−2.0% of holding	−1.5%	+3.3%	193,032	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-20	Prober Charles J.	director	Sale	10,929 @ $26.64	$291K	−2.1% of holding	−5.3%	−13.7%	507,763	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-18	WAECHTER THOMAS H	director	Sale	2,000 @ $30.42	$61K	−3.2% of holding	+1.0%	+1.4%	61,135	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-04	Murray Douglas Andrew	director	Award / grant	6,107	6,107	Form 4
2026-07-31	Badjate Pramod	officer	Withheld for tax	8,440	157,073	Form 4
2026-07-31	Murray Bryan	officer	Withheld for tax	4,814	227,499	Form 4
2026-07-31	Prober Charles J.	director	Withheld for tax	4,598	426,294	Form 4
2026-07-31	Murray Bryan	officer	Withheld for tax	4,293	223,206	Form 4
2026-06-30	Oakes Jonathan Russell	officer	Withheld for tax	10,601	74,845	Form 4
2026-06-03	Durr Laura	director	Award / grant	7,779	49,838	Form 4
2026-06-03	Butterfass Sarah	director	Award / grant	7,779	46,732	Form 4
2026-06-03	Goli Shravan	director	Award / grant	7,779	33,636	Form 4
2026-06-03	ROBERTS JANICE M	director	Award / grant	7,779	75,830	Form 4
2026-06-03	Orvidas Laura	director	Award / grant	7,779	25,690	Form 4
2026-04-30	Prober Charles J.	director	Withheld for tax	18,394	430,892	Form 4
2026-04-30	Murray Bryan	officer	Withheld for tax	17,652	224,891	Form 4
2026-04-30	Badjate Pramod	officer	Withheld for tax	11,506	168,513	Form 4
2026-04-02	Badjate Pramod	officer	Award / grant	34,419	179,005	Form 4
2026-04-02	Badjate Pramod	officer	Award / grant	34,419	34,419	Form 4
2026-04-02	Prober Charles J.	director	Award / grant	114,732	448,272	Form 4
2026-04-02	Prober Charles J.	director	Award / grant	114,732	114,732	Form 4
2026-04-02	Murray Bryan	officer	Award / grant	37,861	241,529	Form 4
2026-04-02	Murray Bryan	officer	Award / grant	37,861	37,861	Form 4
2026-04-02	Oakes Jonathan Russell	officer	Award / grant	22,946	85,446	Form 4
2026-04-02	Oakes Jonathan Russell	officer	Award / grant	22,946	22,946	Form 4
2026-01-31	Prober Charles J.	director	Withheld for tax	85,087	682,663	Form 4
2026-01-31	Prober Charles J.	director	Withheld for tax	61,790	620,873	Form 4
2026-01-31	Badjate Pramod	officer	Withheld for tax	7,775	147,586	Form 4
2026-01-31	Murray Bryan	officer	Withheld for tax	2,985	203,779	Form 4
2026-01-31	Prober Charles J.	director	Option exercise	157,714	767,750	Form 4
2026-01-31	Prober Charles J.	director	Option exercise	157,714	151,940	Form 4
2026-01-27	Murray Bryan	officer	Award / grant	9,461	216,225	Form 4
2025-10-31	Badjate Pramod	officer	Withheld for tax	7,404	159,361	Form 4
2025-10-31	Murray Bryan	officer	Withheld for tax	2,698	206,764	Form 4
2025-07-31	Badjate Pramod	officer	Withheld for tax	22,611	166,765	Form 4
2025-07-31	Murray Bryan	officer	Withheld for tax	6,983	209,462	Form 4
2025-06-04	McLindin Graeme	officer	Award / grant	17,045	63,585	Form 4
2025-06-04	McLindin Graeme	officer	Award / grant	11,364	11,364	Form 4
2025-06-04	Badjate Pramod	officer	Award / grant	22,727	189,376	Form 4
2025-06-04	Badjate Pramod	officer	Award / grant	45,454	45,454	Form 4
2025-06-04	Murray Bryan	officer	Award / grant	37,500	216,445	Form 4
2025-06-04	Murray Bryan	officer	Award / grant	75,000	75,000	Form 4
2025-06-04	Prober Charles J.	director	Award / grant	102,273	610,036	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i