NTCT · TickerCove

NTCTNetScout Systems, Inc.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.51 · now $38.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NTCT has typically landed between $34.17 and $43.87 — a range of −11.3% to +13.9% from the issuance price $38.51.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$38.51 · 68% of range

$25.21 low$44.84 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.7%

typical move · IQR 9.4%

−11.3%worst (p90)+13.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NTCT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $38.51 (+0.0%)
typical $38.77 (+0.7%)
middle 50% $36.95–$40.59
90% range $34.17–$43.87

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-13	−51.9%	−51.9%	+0.0%
2009-02-27	−50.2%	−50.2%	+0.0%
2009-02-19	−49.9%	−49.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-30	+74.3%	+0.0%	+81.4%
2008-12-29	+74.1%	−0.4%	+80.7%
2008-12-31	+70.1%	+0.0%	+71.7%

5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+3.5%

n=20

Feb

50%

+0.7%

n=20

Mar

60%

−0.8%

n=20

Apr

45%

+0.1%

n=20

May

55%

+4.1%

n=20

Jun

45%

−0.6%

n=20

Jul

65%

+3.1%

n=20

Aug

40%

−1.0%

n=20

Sep

45%

+1.1%

n=20

Oct

55%

+3.7%

n=20

Nov

65%

+1.1%

n=20

Dec

55%

+1.8%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Perretta Christopher	director	Sale	7,000 @ $38.00	$266K	−14.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	40,866	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-25	SZABADOS MICHAEL	director	Sale	4,000 @ $37.70	$151K	−8.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	41,654	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17	Munshi Sanjay	officer	Sale	2,269 @ $39.27	$89K	−25.2% of holding	+0.8%	not yet — horizon still open	6,729	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11	DOWNING JOHN	officer	Sale	8,000 @ $38.41	$307K	−5.9% of holding	−1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	127,809	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08	DOWNING JOHN	officer	Sale	8,000 @ $40.29	$322K	−5.8% of holding	+8.3%	not yet — horizon still open	129,121	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	SZABADOS MICHAEL	director	Sale	4,000 @ $38.40	$154K	−11.0% of holding	+4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	32,494	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Munshi Sanjay	officer	Sale	1,985 @ $38.40	$76K	−28.4% of holding	+4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	5,005	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-12	Grasso Alfred	director	Sale	5,000 @ $40.67	$203K	−12.5% of holding	+10.2%	not yet — horizon still open	35,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20	DOWNING JOHN	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $30.00	$90K	−2.3% of holding	+10.9%	+17.9%	129,494	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-18	SZABADOS MICHAEL	director	Sale	4,000 @ $29.18	$117K	−9.9% of holding	+7.4%	+16.9%	36,494	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18	DOWNING JOHN	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $29.18	$88K	−2.2% of holding	+7.4%	+16.9%	132,494	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18	Munshi Sanjay	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $29.18	$58K	−32.0% of holding	+7.4%	+16.9%	4,254	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-12	Perretta Christopher	director	Sale	10,000 @ $28.01	$280K	−19.7% of holding	−1.5%	+37.0%	40,866	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-03	Munshi Sanjay	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $27.23	$54K	−24.2% of holding	−1.2%	+40.7%	6,254	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19	HADZIMA JOSEPH G JR	director	Sale	3,113 @ $25.63	$80K	−2.4% of holding	+6.5%	+46.8%	128,185	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-12	SZABADOS MICHAEL	director	Sale	4,000 @ $28.35	$113K	−9.0% of holding	−2.4%	+27.6%	40,494	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-06	DOWNING JOHN	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $30.00	$90K	−2.2% of holding	−9.7%	+28.1%	135,494	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03	DOWNING JOHN	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $27.80	$83K	−2.1% of holding	−1.8%	+20.3%	138,494	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-27	Grasso Alfred	director	Sale	5,644 @ $24.44	$138K	−14.6% of holding	+1.6%	+11.3%	33,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26	Grasso Alfred	director	Sale	5,356 @ $24.14	$129K	−12.2% of holding	+5.6%	+15.3%	38,644	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-22	SZABADOS MICHAEL	director	Sale	4,000 @ $22.91	$92K	−9.3% of holding	+7.6%	+14.6%	38,939	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-12	HADZIMA JOSEPH G JR	director	Sale	3,500 @ $22.03	$77K	−2.7% of holding	+11.7%	+16.3%	124,298	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08	DOWNING JOHN	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $21.40	$64K	−2.1% of holding	+13.9%	+17.6%	136,732	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

277 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	EGAN JOHN R	director	Option exercise	7,000	112,740	Form 4
2026-09-10	DONAHUE ROBERT E	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	VITALE VIVIAN M	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	VITALE VIVIAN M	director	Option exercise	7,000	52,970	Form 4
2026-09-10	Perretta Christopher	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	EGAN JOHN R	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Perretta Christopher	director	Option exercise	7,000	47,866	Form 4
2026-09-10	Pelage Marlene	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Pelage Marlene	director	Option exercise	7,000	25,085	Form 4
2026-09-10	Nash Shannon	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Nash Shannon	director	Option exercise	7,000	25,085	Form 4
2026-09-10	HADZIMA JOSEPH G JR	director	Option exercise	7,000	125,185	Form 4
2026-09-10	Grasso Alfred	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	DONAHUE ROBERT E	director	Option exercise	7,000	73,977	Form 4
2026-09-10	HADZIMA JOSEPH G JR	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	HADZIMA JOSEPH G JR	director	Option exercise	7,000	125,185	Form 4
2026-09-10	Grasso Alfred	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Grasso Alfred	director	Option exercise	7,000	42,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	EGAN JOHN R	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	EGAN JOHN R	director	Option exercise	7,000	112,740	Form 4
2026-09-10	DONAHUE ROBERT E	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	DONAHUE ROBERT E	director	Option exercise	7,000	73,977	Form 4
2026-09-10	VITALE VIVIAN M	director	Option exercise	7,000	52,970	Form 4
2026-09-10	VITALE VIVIAN M	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Perretta Christopher	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Perretta Christopher	director	Option exercise	7,000	47,866	Form 4
2026-09-10	Pelage Marlene	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Pelage Marlene	director	Option exercise	7,000	25,085	Form 4
2026-09-10	Nash Shannon	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Perretta Christopher	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Perretta Christopher	director	Option exercise	7,000	47,866	Form 4
2026-09-10	Pelage Marlene	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Nash Shannon	director	Option exercise	7,000	25,085	Form 4
2026-09-10	Grasso Alfred	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Grasso Alfred	director	Option exercise	7,000	42,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	EGAN JOHN R	director	Option exercise	7,000	7,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	EGAN JOHN R	director	Option exercise	7,000	112,740	Form 4
2026-09-10	VITALE VIVIAN M	director	Option exercise	7,000	52,970	Form 4
2026-09-10	Nash Shannon	director	Option exercise	7,000	25,085	Form 4
2026-09-10	Pelage Marlene	director	Option exercise	7,000	25,085	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i