Issued 2026-09-25 at $201.15 · now $201.15 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, NTAP has typically landed between $176.16 and $233.20 — a range of −12.4% to +15.9% from the issuance price $201.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($201.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NTAP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $201.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $201.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $202.93 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $190.77–$215.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $176.16–$233.2
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-08 | −47.0% | −47.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-16 | −45.5% | −45.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −44.8% | −46.0% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-04 | +63.2% | +0.0% | +63.2% |
| 2026-04-30 | +62.2% | +0.0% | +62.2% |
| 2026-04-29 | +60.4% | +0.0% | +60.4% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$32.9B
market cap
$6.36
EPS (TTM)
26.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-02
next earnings
Revenue$6.9B
'21'26
Net income$1.3B
'21'26
Free cash flow$1.9B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr18.4%
'21'26
ROE · by yr94.4%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr2.02
'21'26
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$79.23
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$217.54
- Analyst target · range $150.00–$200.00$185.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$201.15
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
−0.2%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.8%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.6%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.7%
n=19
May
79%
+4.7%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.8%
n=19
Jul
63%
+4.7%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
−0.4%
n=18
Nov
50%
+4.8%
n=18
Dec
39%
+0.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Kurian George | director | Sale | 13,000 @ $200.01 | $2.6M | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 305,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Ahuja Deepak | director | Sale | 3,450 @ $200.00 | $690K | −21.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Kurian George | director | Sale | 12,845 @ $192.11 | $2.5M | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 321,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Kurian George | director | Sale | 12,681 @ $191.25 | $2.4M | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 334,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Kurian George | director | Sale | 11,616 @ $190.28 | $2.2M | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 346,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Ahuja Deepak | director | Sale | 3,526 @ $194.04 | $684K | −17.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,264 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Kurian George | director | Sale | 1,488 @ $194.04 | $289K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 318,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Kurian George | director | Sale | 1,370 @ $193.34 | $265K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 320,025 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | NEVENS THOMAS MICHAEL | director | Sale | 5,940 @ $195.21 | $1.2M | −43.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,747 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | O'Callahan Elizabeth M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $184.74 | $185K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,737 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | CERNUDA CESAR | officer | Sale | 1,192 @ $203.63 | $243K | −2.4% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,946 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | CERNUDA CESAR | officer | Sale | 821 @ $205.56 | $169K | −1.7% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,630 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | CERNUDA CESAR | officer | Sale | 495 @ $204.36 | $101K | −1.0% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,451 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | CERNUDA CESAR | officer | Sale | 100 @ $206.40 | $21K | −0.2% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,530 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | O'Callahan Elizabeth M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $193.82 | $194K | −3.2% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | O'Callahan Elizabeth M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $170.92 | $171K | −3.1% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,297 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | CERNUDA CESAR | officer | Sale | 15,593 @ $155.29 | $2.4M | −20.6% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | CERNUDA CESAR | officer | Sale | 14,947 @ $154.01 | $2.3M | −16.5% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | CERNUDA CESAR | officer | Sale | 13,294 @ $155.94 | $2.1M | −22.1% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | CERNUDA CESAR | officer | Sale | 5,630 @ $153.00 | $861K | −5.8% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,640 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | O'Callahan Elizabeth M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $163.48 | $163K | −3.0% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | HELD GERALD | director | Sale | 7,132 @ $180.00 | $1.3M | −34.1% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | De Lorenzo Daniel | officer | Sale | 225 @ $171.09 | $38K | −17.1% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | De Lorenzo Daniel | officer | Sale | 275 @ $120.00 | $33K | −20.1% of holding | +28.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | O'Callahan Elizabeth M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $117.73 | $118K | −5.2% of holding | +38.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,382 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | O'Callahan Elizabeth M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $96.25 | $96K | −4.9% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,382 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | O'Callahan Elizabeth M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $100.67 | $101K | −4.7% of holding | −1.4% | +79.0% | 20,382 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | De Lorenzo Daniel | officer | Sale | 252 @ $101.84 | $26K | −100.0% of holding | +2.8% | +91.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
272 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | GUSTAFSSON ANDERS | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | HELD GERALD | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | HELD GERALD | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | GUSTAFSSON ANDERS | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ahuja Deepak | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ahuja Deepak | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Fipps Paul | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ahuja Deepak | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Ahuja Deepak | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | KERR DEBORAH | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Palin Carrie | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Palin Carrie | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Fipps Paul | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | HELD GERALD | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Yang June | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Fipps Paul | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | KERR DEBORAH | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Yang June | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | GUSTAFSSON ANDERS | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Pelzer Francis J. | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | GUSTAFSSON ANDERS | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | NEVENS THOMAS MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 1,948 | 1,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | KERR DEBORAH | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Palin Carrie | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Palin Carrie | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Yang June | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | NEVENS THOMAS MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 1,948 | 1,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Fipps Paul | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Pelzer Francis J. | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Pelzer Francis J. | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | KERR DEBORAH | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | NEVENS THOMAS MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 1,948 | 1,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | NEVENS THOMAS MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 1,948 | 1,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Pelzer Francis J. | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | HELD GERALD | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Yang June | director | Award / grant | 1,542 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | HELD GERALD | director | Option exercise | 2,307 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Fipps Paul | director | Option exercise | 2,646 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Palin Carrie | director | Option exercise | 2,307 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | HELD GERALD | director | Option exercise | 2,307 | 16,082 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-29 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | purchase | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.