NTAPNetApp, Inc.Technology · Computer Hardwareas of 2026-08-13
Horizon

Issued 2026-08-13 at $204.99 · now $204.99 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, NTAP has typically landed between $179.59 and $236.98 — a range of −12.4% to +15.6% from the issuance price $204.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($204.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NTAP has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $204.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$179.59worst · -12.4%$236.98best · +15.6%
  • now $204.99 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $206.9 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $194.6–$219.2
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $179.59–$236.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,662 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-13. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-08−47.0%−47.0%+0.0%
2008-09-16−45.5%−45.5%+0.0%
2008-09-11−44.8%−46.0%+1.4%
3 best
2026-05-04+63.2%+0.0%+63.2%
2026-04-30+62.2%+0.0%+62.2%
2026-04-29+60.4%+0.0%+60.4%

4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$32.9B
market cap
$6.36
EPS (TTM)
26.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-02
next earnings
Revenue$6.9B
'21'26
Net income$1.3B
'21'26
Free cash flow$1.9B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr18.4%
'21'26
ROE · by yr94.4%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr2.02
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $204.99$68.16$228.61
  • DCF (intrinsic)$79.23
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$217.54
  • Analyst target · range $150.00–$200.00$185.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-08-13$204.99

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
−0.2%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.8%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.6%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.7%
n=19
May
79%
+4.7%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.8%
n=19
Jul
63%
+4.7%
n=19
Aug
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Sep
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Oct
56%
−0.4%
n=18
Nov
50%
+4.8%
n=18
Dec
39%
+0.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-082025-07$205$932025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $925K — Kurian George2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $925K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kurian George — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-08-18Kurian GeorgedirectorSale8,500 @ $108.85$925K−2.9% of holding+11.3%−13.4%283,688Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2025-08-15Kurian GeorgedirectorWithheld for tax3,878292,188Form 4
2025-08-15CERNUDA CESARofficerWithheld for tax2,31152,114Form 4
2025-08-15O'Callahan Elizabeth MofficerWithheld for tax1,37324,628Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerWithheld for tax172779Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise496951Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise6970Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise107323Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise1461,025Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise1741,925Form 4
2025-08-15Kurian GeorgedirectorOption exercise7,761296,066Form 4
2025-08-15Kurian GeorgedirectorOption exercise2,8768,627Form 4
2025-08-15Kurian GeorgedirectorOption exercise2,88620,198Form 4
2025-08-15Kurian GeorgedirectorOption exercise1,99921,992Form 4
2025-08-15Nair SyamofficerAward / grant194,272194,272Form 4
2025-08-15O'Callahan Elizabeth MofficerOption exercise2,75026,001Form 4
2025-08-15O'Callahan Elizabeth MofficerOption exercise1,0473,143Form 4
2025-08-15O'Callahan Elizabeth MofficerOption exercise1,0047,026Form 4
2025-08-15O'Callahan Elizabeth MofficerOption exercise6997,698Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise496951Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise6970Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise107323Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise1461,025Form 4
2025-08-15De Lorenzo DanielofficerOption exercise1741,925Form 4
2025-08-15Kurian GeorgedirectorOption exercise7,761296,066Form 4
2025-08-15Kurian GeorgedirectorOption exercise2,8768,627Form 4
2025-08-15Kurian GeorgedirectorOption exercise2,88620,198Form 4
2025-08-15Kurian GeorgedirectorOption exercise1,99921,992Form 4
2025-08-15Nair SyamofficerAward / grant194,272194,272Form 4
2025-08-15CERNUDA CESARofficerOption exercise4,91954,425Form 4
2025-08-15CERNUDA CESARofficerOption exercise1,9645,892Form 4
2025-08-15CERNUDA CESARofficerOption exercise1,75612,295Form 4
2025-08-15CERNUDA CESARofficerOption exercise1,19913,196Form 4
2025-08-15O'Callahan Elizabeth MofficerOption exercise2,75026,001Form 4
2025-08-15O'Callahan Elizabeth MofficerOption exercise1,0473,143Form 4
2025-08-15O'Callahan Elizabeth MofficerOption exercise1,0047,026Form 4
2025-08-15O'Callahan Elizabeth MofficerOption exercise6997,698Form 4
2025-08-15CERNUDA CESARofficerOption exercise4,91954,425Form 4
2025-08-15CERNUDA CESARofficerOption exercise1,9645,892Form 4
2025-08-15CERNUDA CESARofficerOption exercise1,75612,295Form 4
2025-08-15CERNUDA CESARofficerOption exercise1,19913,196Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+28 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 53.7% vs 53.2% · n=26,833

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-03-062026-02-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.