NSSC · TickerCove

NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.Industrials · Security & Protection Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.33 · now $36.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NSSC has typically landed between $29.76 and $44.73 — a range of −18.1% to +23.1% from the issuance price $36.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$36.33 · 13% of range

$34.82 low$46.87 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.9%

typical move · IQR 16.1%

−18.1%worst (p90)+23.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NSSC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $36.33 (+0.0%)
typical $37.01 (+1.9%)
middle 50% $34.09–$39.94
90% range $29.76–$44.73

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-05	−52.5%	−52.5%	+0.0%
2008-09-08	−49.5%	−52.5%	+0.0%
2008-09-09	−48.2%	−51.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2023-11-02	+71.6%	+0.0%	+71.6%
2023-11-01	+70.7%	+0.0%	+70.7%
2023-11-03	+69.2%	+0.0%	+69.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+2.1%

n=20

Feb

55%

+3.7%

n=20

Mar

60%

+1.6%

n=20

Apr

45%

+2.0%

n=20

May

65%

+4.3%

n=20

Jun

60%

+3.4%

n=20

Jul

60%

+3.1%

n=20

Aug

50%

+0.7%

n=20

Sep

40%

−3.1%

n=20

Oct

55%

+0.7%

n=20

Nov

50%

+4.4%

n=20

Dec

50%

+0.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Sale	379,529 @ $34.50	$13.1M	−37.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	621,958	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-27	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Sale	20,962 @ $34.62	$726K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-26	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Sale	95,471 @ $35.93	$3.4M	−8.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,001,487	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-26	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Sale	28,000 @ $35.98	$1.0M	−57.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	20,962	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Sale	55,318 @ $43.22	$2.4M	−4.8% of holding	−5.0%	−30.4%	1,096,958	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Sale	129,682 @ $44.99	$5.8M	−10.1% of holding	−6.5%	−30.6%	1,152,276	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Sale	150,000 @ $42.74	$6.4M	−10.7% of holding	−1.0%	−18.8%	1,256,010	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-17	Spinelli Stephen M	officer	Sale	19,000 @ $40.25	$765K	−95.3% of holding	+6.4%	−20.1%	928	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06	Spinelli Stephen M	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $29.16	$146K	−20.1% of holding	+0.8%	+29.3%	19,928	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

33 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	10,000	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	10,000	44,962	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	8,000	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	8,000	27,462	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	4,000	48,962	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	4,000	1,000	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	7,500	34,962	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	7,500	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	8,000	19,462	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	8,000	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	3,600	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	Soloway Donna Anne	director	Option exercise	3,600	11,462	Form 4
2026-03-17	Spinelli Stephen M	officer	Withheld for tax	3,212	11,688	Form 4
2026-03-17	Spinelli Stephen M	officer	Option exercise	13,972	9,980	Form 4
2026-03-17	Spinelli Stephen M	officer	Option exercise	13,972	14,900	Form 4
2026-02-26	CARRIERI MICHAEL	officer	Withheld for tax	6,651	26,610	Form 4
2026-02-26	CARRIERI MICHAEL	officer	Option exercise	10,000	0	Form 4
2026-02-26	CARRIERI MICHAEL	officer	Option exercise	10,000	33,261	Form 4
2026-02-19	BUCHEL KEVIN S	director	Withheld for tax	33,560	79,179	Form 4
2026-02-19	BUCHEL KEVIN S	director	Option exercise	50,000	47,584	Form 4
2026-02-19	BUCHEL KEVIN S	director	Option exercise	50,000	112,739	Form 4
2026-02-10	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Withheld for tax	74,878	1,281,132	Form 4
2026-02-10	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Option exercise	100,000	1,356,010	Form 4
2026-02-10	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Option exercise	100,000	0	Form 4
2026-02-10	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Withheld for tax	7,174	1,281,958	Form 4
2026-02-10	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Option exercise	8,000	2,000	Form 4
2026-02-10	SOLOWAY RICHARD	director	Option exercise	8,000	1,289,132	Form 4
2025-09-17	CARRIERI MICHAEL	officer	Option exercise	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2025-09-17	CARRIERI MICHAEL	officer	Option exercise	10,000	27,837	Form 4
2025-09-17	CARRIERI MICHAEL	officer	Withheld for tax	5,305	22,532	Form 4
2025-09-17	CARRIERI MICHAEL	officer	Withheld for tax	1,271	23,261	Form 4
2025-09-17	CARRIERI MICHAEL	officer	Option exercise	2,000	24,532	Form 4
2025-09-17	CARRIERI MICHAEL	officer	Option exercise	2,000	2,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i