NSCNorfolk Southern CorporationIndustrials · Railroadsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $317.00 · now $317.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NSC has typically landed between $283.66 and $353.90 — a range of −10.5% to +11.6% from the issuance price $317.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($317.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NSC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $317 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$283.66worst · -10.5%$353.9best · +11.6%
  • now $317 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $319.05 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $303–$335.11
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $283.66–$353.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−42.9%−42.9%+0.0%
2020-02-20−41.3%−41.3%+0.0%
2020-02-13−39.9%−39.9%+0.2%
3 best
2009-03-05+37.5%−1.1%+37.5%
2009-03-06+32.8%−1.7%+36.6%
2009-03-11+31.4%+0.0%+31.8%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$78.8B
market cap
$11.72
EPS (TTM)
29.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$12.2B
'20'25
Net income$2.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr23.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr18.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.10
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $317.00$103.22$421.98
  • DCF (intrinsic)$125.20
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$359.25
  • Analyst target · range $310.00–$400.00$360.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$317.00

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−0.6%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.6%
n=19
May
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
74%
+5.0%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
50%
+2.6%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$353$2692025-12-05: 1 insider purchase, $60K — Clyburn William Jr.2025-11-19: 1 insider sale, $253K — Bhatt Anil2025-11-05: 1 insider purchase, $467K — Fahmy Sameh2025-10-27: 1 insider purchase, $733K — ANDERSON RICHARD H2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $733K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $467K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $253K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $60K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Clyburn William Jr. — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Bhatt Anil — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fahmy Sameh — Purchase on 2025-11-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ANDERSON RICHARD H — Purchase on 2025-10-27, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-05Clyburn William Jr.directorPurchase204 @ $294.79$60K+101.5% of holding−4.3%−1.0%405Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-19Bhatt AnilofficerSale900 @ $281.60$253K−38.9% of holding+0.4%−0.6%1,413Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05Fahmy SamehdirectorPurchase1,650 @ $282.97$467K+15.9% of holding+4.1%+3.2%12,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-27ANDERSON RICHARD HdirectorPurchase2,600 @ $281.86$733K+59.1% of holding+4.6%+7.4%7,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-31LAMPHERE GILBERT HdirectorPurchase607 @ $259.86$158K+32.3% of holding−1.9%+5.2%2,487Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

295 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-13George Mark RdirectorWithheld for tax1,03522,783Form 4
2026-09-13George Mark RdirectorOption exercise2,65323,818Form 4
2026-09-13George Mark RdirectorOption exercise2,65329,664Form 4
2026-09-13George Mark RdirectorOption exercise2,65329,664Form 4
2026-09-13George Mark RdirectorOption exercise2,65329,664Form 4
2026-09-13George Mark RdirectorOption exercise2,65329,664Form 4
2026-08-20Donadio Marcela EdirectorAward / grant349,393Form 4
2026-08-20Jones Christopher TdirectorAward / grant205,295Form 4
2026-08-20Huffard John C JrdirectorAward / grant205,295Form 4
2026-08-20Huffard John C JrdirectorAward / grant123,135Form 4
2026-08-20Davidson Phillip SdirectorAward / grant102,530Form 4
2026-08-20ANDERSON RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant92,388Form 4
2026-08-20DeBiase Francesca A.directorAward / grant82,156Form 4
2026-08-20Fahmy SamehdirectorAward / grant71,834Form 4
2026-08-20Clyburn William Jr.directorAward / grant71,834Form 4
2026-08-20Heitkamp Mary KathryndirectorAward / grant71,834Form 4
2026-08-20ANDERSON RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant71,771Form 4
2026-08-20Ryerkerk LoridirectorAward / grant31,345Form 4
2026-08-20LAMPHERE GILBERT HdirectorAward / grant2630Form 4
2026-07-27Barr BrianofficerAward / grant1,4564,404Form 4
2026-07-27Barr BrianofficerAward / grant1,4564,404Form 4
2026-06-30ANDERSON RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant2511,764Form 4
2026-06-30Huffard John C JrdirectorAward / grant1683,123Form 4
2026-05-20Donadio Marcela EdirectorAward / grant379,359Form 4
2026-05-20Jones Christopher TdirectorAward / grant225,274Form 4
2026-05-20Huffard John C JrdirectorAward / grant225,274Form 4
2026-05-20Huffard John C JrdirectorAward / grant132,954Form 4
2026-05-20Davidson Phillip SdirectorAward / grant112,521Form 4
2026-05-20ANDERSON RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant102,379Form 4
2026-05-20DeBiase Francesca A.directorAward / grant92,148Form 4
2026-05-20Fahmy SamehdirectorAward / grant81,827Form 4
2026-05-20Heitkamp Mary KathryndirectorAward / grant81,827Form 4
2026-05-20Clyburn William Jr.directorAward / grant81,827Form 4
2026-05-20ANDERSON RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant71,513Form 4
2026-05-20Ryerkerk LoridirectorAward / grant31,343Form 4
2026-05-20LAMPHERE GILBERT HdirectorAward / grant3627Form 4
2026-04-26Orr John FofficerWithheld for tax3,24711,363Form 4
2026-04-26Orr John FofficerOption exercise8,31914,610Form 4
2026-04-26Orr John FofficerOption exercise8,31915,622Form 4
2026-04-26Orr John FofficerOption exercise8,31915,622Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Sheri BiggsHousesale2025-10-052025-03-19$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-09-112025-08-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2025-05-142025-04-09$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.