Issued 2026-08-13 at $119.75 · now $119.75 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, NRG has typically landed between $103.06 and $141.61 — a range of −13.9% to +18.3% from the issuance price $119.75.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($119.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NRG has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $119.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $119.75 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $121.99 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $114.42–$129.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $103.06–$141.61
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-11 | −52.7% | −52.7% | +4.2% |
| 2008-09-10 | −46.6% | −46.6% | +6.3% |
| 2008-09-08 | −46.3% | −46.3% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-21 | +72.2% | +0.0% | +73.9% |
| 2025-04-11 | +66.6% | −1.5% | +66.6% |
| 2025-04-17 | +65.4% | −4.9% | +65.4% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$266.83
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$19.19
- Analyst target · range $165.00–$226.00$197.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$119.75
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
No Form 4 filings for this company are in our record yet.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2025-06-14 | 2025-05-20 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | purchase | 2025-02-08 | 2025-01-28 | $1–15K |
| Kurt Schrader | House | purchase | 2021-07-07 | 2021-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2020-12-16 | 2020-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-04-20 | 2020-03-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-02-10 | 2020-01-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2019-10-16 | 2019-09-10 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2019-08-29 | 2019-07-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2019-08-06 | 2019-07-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-07-11 | 2019-06-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2019-04-11 | 2019-03-26 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | purchase | 2019-04-08 | 2019-03-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-02-12 | 2019-01-18 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.