NRGNRG Energy, Inc.Utilities · Independent Power Producersas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $100.37 · now $100.37 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, NRG has typically landed between $85.97 and $118.69 — a range of −14.3% to +18.3% from the issuance price $100.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($100.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NRG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $100.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$85.97worst · -14.3%$118.69best · +18.3%
  • now $100.37 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $102.18 (+1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $95.61–$108.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $85.97–$118.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−52.7%−52.7%+4.2%
2008-09-10−46.6%−46.6%+6.3%
2008-09-08−46.3%−46.3%+1.9%
3 best
2025-04-21+72.2%+0.0%+73.9%
2025-04-11+66.6%−1.5%+66.6%
2025-04-17+65.4%−4.9%+65.4%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$29.8B
market cap
$0.85
EPS (TTM)
165.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$30.7B
'20'25
Net income$864M
'20'25
Free cash flow$766M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr51.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr9.97
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $100.37$-0.6234$286.65
  • DCF (intrinsic)$266.83
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$19.19
  • Analyst target · range $165.00–$226.00$197.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$100.37

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.1%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.5%
n=19
Apr
79%
+5.8%
n=19
May
47%
+3.7%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.6%
n=19
Jul
53%
+1.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Sep
53%
−3.4%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.5%
n=18
Nov
50%
+1.3%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$183$982026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $191K — Spencer Gerald Alfred2026-07-15: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Kinney Virginia2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Kinney Virginia2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $783K — Kinney Virginia2026-03-04: 4 insider sales, $5.3B — LS Power Equity Advisors, LLC, Nanus David …2026-01-07: 2 insider sales, $1.9M — Chung Bruce …2026-01-06: 3 insider sales, $15.8M — Curci Brian, Gaudette Robert J, Chung Bruce2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $9.8M — Curci Brian2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $3.3M — Kinney Virginia2025-09-10: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Liyanearachchi Dak2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $3.3M2026-01: 6 open-market sales, $27.6M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $5.3B2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $2.6M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $191K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Spencer Gerald Alfred — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kinney Virginia — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kinney Virginia — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kinney Virginia — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner LS Power Equity Advisors, LLC — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same daydirector Nanus David — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same daydirector Nanus David — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same daytenPercentOwner LS Power Equity Advisors, LLC — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same daydirector Chung Bruce — Sale on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chung Bruce — Sale on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Curci Brian — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed same daydirector Gaudette Robert J — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed same daydirector Chung Bruce — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed same dayofficer Curci Brian — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kinney Virginia — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Liyanearachchi Dak — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Spencer Gerald AlfredofficerSale1,580 @ $120.93$191K−20.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,213Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-15Kinney VirginiaofficerSale11,145 @ $140.64$1.6M−24.7% of holding−16.2%not yet — horizon still open33,966Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Kinney VirginiaofficerSale20,000 @ $127.52$2.6M−30.7% of holding+2.1%not yet — horizon still open45,111Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16Kinney VirginiaofficerSale5,000 @ $156.65$783K−8.3% of holding+5.6%−43.8%55,495Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04LS Power Equity Advisors, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale14,300,000 @ $164.00$2.3B−68.3% of holding−2.6%−44.1%6,650,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Nanus DaviddirectorSale14,300,000 @ $164.00$2.3B−68.3% of holding−2.6%−44.1%6,650,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Nanus DaviddirectorSale1,829,269 @ $164.00$300.0M−27.5% of holding−2.6%−44.1%4,820,731Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04LS Power Equity Advisors, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale1,829,269 @ $164.00$300.0M−27.5% of holding−2.6%−44.1%4,820,731Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-07Chung BrucedirectorSale7,383 @ $158.79$1.2M−8.5% of holding+3.1%−15.2%79,147Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-07Chung BrucedirectorSale5,000 @ $153.25$766K−5.5% of holding+3.1%−15.2%86,530Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06Curci BrianofficerSale46,976 @ $158.84$7.5M−50.5% of holding−7.2%−20.7%46,113Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-06Gaudette Robert JdirectorSale45,000 @ $158.76$7.1M−41.3% of holding−7.2%−20.7%63,920Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-06Chung BrucedirectorSale7,617 @ $158.79$1.2M−7.7% of holding−7.2%−20.7%91,530Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-05Curci BrianofficerSale60,580 @ $161.71$9.8M−39.4% of holding−10.4%−23.3%93,089Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14Kinney VirginiaofficerSale20,000 @ $163.82$3.3M−31.7% of holding−4.1%−34.5%43,191Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-10Liyanearachchi DakofficerSale10,672 @ $155.00$1.7M−18.0% of holding+1.2%−7.8%48,571Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30Howell KevindirectorSale50,000 @ $154.50$7.7M−47.4% of holding−5.1%−7.3%55,427Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-13Chung BrucedirectorSale20,000 @ $97.63$2.0M−22.4% of holding+2.3%+42.4%69,454Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-02Gaudette Robert JdirectorSale60,000 @ $91.41$5.5M−48.2% of holding+7.1%+57.7%64,448Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

281 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Bentley BradofficerWithheld for tax3,40127,791Form 4
2026-08-04Bentley BradofficerWithheld for tax1,57031,192Form 4
2026-08-03Kinney VirginiaofficerAward / grant2733,993Form 4
2026-08-03Liyanearachchi DakofficerAward / grant2463,703Form 4
2026-08-03Donohue Elisabeth BdirectorAward / grant8129,131Form 4
2026-08-03ZLOTNIK MARCIEdirectorAward / grant298,721Form 4
2026-08-03Pruner AlexandradirectorAward / grant11232,792Form 4
2026-08-03Pourbaix Alexander JdirectorAward / grant4419,881Form 4
2026-08-03Curci BrianofficerAward / grant4446,238Form 4
2026-08-03Chung BrucedirectorAward / grant5589,647Form 4
2026-08-03Carter Matthew JrdirectorAward / grant14943,693Form 4
2026-08-03Carrillo AntoniodirectorAward / grant6545,392Form 4
2026-08-03Spencer Gerald AlfredofficerAward / grant147,793Form 4
2026-08-03Bentley BradofficerAward / grant11232,762Form 4
2026-08-03Cox HeatherdirectorAward / grant6843,679Form 4
2026-08-03Kapoor SanjaydirectorAward / grant133,934Form 4
2026-08-03Gaudette Robert JdirectorAward / grant5364,069Form 4
2026-06-05Chung BrucedirectorOption exercise22,3280Form 4
2026-06-05Kinney VirginiaofficerOption exercise15,9480Form 4
2026-06-05Chung BrucedirectorWithheld for tax12,14289,592Form 4
2026-06-05Kinney VirginiaofficerWithheld for tax6,67265,111Form 4
2026-06-05Chung BrucedirectorOption exercise1,4101,410Form 4
2026-06-05Chung BrucedirectorOption exercise1,410103,001Form 4
2026-06-05Chung BrucedirectorWithheld for tax1,267101,734Form 4
2026-06-05Kinney VirginiaofficerOption exercise1,00772,480Form 4
2026-06-05Kinney VirginiaofficerOption exercise1,0071,007Form 4
2026-06-05Kinney VirginiaofficerWithheld for tax69771,783Form 4
2026-06-05Chung BrucedirectorOption exercise22,328101,591Form 4
2026-06-05Kinney VirginiaofficerOption exercise15,94871,473Form 4
2026-06-01Pourbaix Alexander JdirectorAward / grant2,61919,837Form 4
2026-06-01Carrillo AntoniodirectorAward / grant2,31845,327Form 4
2026-06-01Carter Matthew JrdirectorAward / grant1,49943,544Form 4
2026-06-01Cox HeatherdirectorAward / grant1,42243,611Form 4
2026-06-01Donohue Elisabeth BdirectorAward / grant1,49929,050Form 4
2026-06-01Fawaz MarwandirectorAward / grant1,4228,453Form 4
2026-06-01Kapoor SanjaydirectorAward / grant2,4643,921Form 4
2026-06-01Pruner AlexandradirectorAward / grant1,55732,680Form 4
2026-06-01ZLOTNIK MARCIEdirectorAward / grant1,4228,692Form 4
2026-06-01Wright Glenn TracydirectorAward / grant1,4221,472Form 4
2026-05-01Gaudette Robert JdirectorAward / grant4764,016Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatesale2025-06-142025-05-20$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2025-02-082025-01-28$1–15K
Kurt SchraderHousepurchase2021-07-072021-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-12-162020-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-04-202020-03-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-02-102020-01-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-10-162019-09-10$1–15K
Susie LeeHousesale2019-08-292019-07-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-08-062019-07-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-04-112019-03-26$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2019-04-082019-03-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-02-122019-01-18$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.