Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.05 · now $22.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NRC has typically landed between $18.06 and $26.27 — a range of −18.1% to +19.1% from the issuance price $22.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,328 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-05-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NRC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.87 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.32–$23.42
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.06–$26.27
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −49.1% | −49.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −47.4% | −47.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-16 | −44.5% | −45.9% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-10-27 | +57.8% | +0.0% | +57.8% |
| 2020-03-18 | +55.4% | +0.0% | +55.4% |
| 2025-10-23 | +51.5% | −2.0% | +51.5% |
3,328 overlapping windows · 2013-05-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | HARRISON SHANE R | officer | Purchase | 8,000 @ $12.27 | $98K | ownership Δ n/a | +49.2% | +73.2% | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Freeman Jordan Nicole | officer | Purchase | 771 @ $12.97 | $10K | ownership Δ n/a | +15.4% | +55.4% | 771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | BEANS PATRICK E | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,500 @ $13.59 | $34K | +7.7% of holding | +12.9% | −11.3% | 35,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
36 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Berwick Donald M | director | Award / grant | 7,697 | 7,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Bhandari Parul | director | Award / grant | 7,697 | 7,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Lockhart Stephen H | director | Award / grant | 7,697 | 7,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Wheeler Penny Ann | director | Award / grant | 7,697 | 7,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | NUNNELLY JOHN N | director | Award / grant | 7,697 | 40,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Rau Jason Russell | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Bhandari Parul | director | Award / grant | 8,819 | 8,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Lockhart Stephen H | director | Award / grant | 8,819 | 8,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Hays Michael D. | director | Option exercise | 9,145 | 20,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Burik David | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Hays Michael D. | director | Option exercise | 9,145 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | HARRISON SHANE R | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,271 | 150,729 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Hrdy Helen | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,244 | 140,518 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Hrdy Helen | officer | Option exercise | 12,346 | 151,762 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Hrdy Helen | officer | Option exercise | 12,346 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | Berwick Donald M | director | Award / grant | 22,625 | 22,625 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | Wheeler Penny Ann | director | Award / grant | 22,625 | 22,625 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | NUNNELLY JOHN N | director | Award / grant | 22,625 | 22,625 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | HARRISON SHANE R | officer | Award / grant | 172,000 | 172,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | Green Trent S | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Bhandari Parul | director | Award / grant | 34,917 | 34,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Lockhart Stephen H | director | Award / grant | 34,917 | 34,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Wheeler Penny Ann | director | Award / grant | 34,917 | 34,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | NUNNELLY JOHN N | director | Award / grant | 34,917 | 34,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Berwick Donald M | director | Award / grant | 34,917 | 34,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monnich Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Hrdy Helen | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 139,416 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Hays Michael D. | director | Award / grant | 11,021 | 11,021 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Hays Michael D. | director | Option exercise | 10,014 | 11,009 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Hays Michael D. | director | Option exercise | 10,014 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-31 | Amandla MK Trust | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 4,755,317 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-31 | Common Property Trust | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 4,755,317 | 4,755,317 | Form 4 |
| 2019-12-03 | BEANS PATRICK E | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 400 | 32,503 | Form 4 |
| 2019-06-25 | BEANS PATRICK E | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 450 | 32,903 | Form 4 |
| 2019-05-10 | BEANS PATRICK E | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 800 | 33,353 | Form 4 |
| 2018-08-24 | BEANS PATRICK E | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 650 | 34,153 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.