Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.75 · now $1.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NPWR has typically landed between $1.32 and $2.42 — a range of −24.4% to +38.5% from the issuance price $1.75.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,262 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-08-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NPWR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.75 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.75 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.63–$1.87
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.32–$2.42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,262 windows spanning 2021-08-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-07 | −68.4% | −69.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-06 | −66.8% | −66.8% | +6.9% |
| 2025-03-05 | −66.5% | −66.5% | +2.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-09-15 | +127.4% | +0.0% | +127.4% |
| 2025-09-16 | +121.5% | +0.0% | +121.5% |
| 2025-09-10 | +108.6% | +0.0% | +108.6% |
1,262 overlapping windows · 2021-08-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−5.7%
n=5
Feb
40%
−8.4%
n=5
Mar
60%
−8.6%
n=5
Apr
40%
−3.4%
n=5
May
40%
+5.3%
n=5
Jun
40%
+3.6%
n=5
Jul
40%
−1.6%
n=5
Aug
40%
+3.7%
n=5
Sep
67%
+1.6%
n=6
Oct
80%
+8.9%
n=5
Nov
60%
−2.0%
n=5
Dec
40%
−5.6%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 150,000 @ $1.84 | $276K | −16.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 750,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 150,000 @ $1.84 | $276K | −16.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 750,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,000 @ $1.94 | $194K | −10.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 900,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,000 @ $1.94 | $194K | −10.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 900,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 41,350 @ $1.91 | $79K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 41,350 @ $1.91 | $79K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 201,550 @ $1.91 | $384K | −16.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,041,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 201,550 @ $1.91 | $384K | −16.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,041,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 507,100 @ $1.95 | $991K | −29.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,242,900 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 507,100 @ $1.95 | $991K | −29.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,242,900 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 200,000 @ $1.62 | $324K | −10.3% of holding | +13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,750,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 200,000 @ $1.62 | $324K | −10.3% of holding | +13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,750,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 50,000 @ $1.63 | $82K | −2.5% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,950,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 50,000 @ $1.63 | $82K | −2.5% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,950,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35,000 @ $1.60 | $56K | −1.7% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35,000 @ $1.60 | $56K | −1.7% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,400 @ $1.55 | $86K | −2.7% of holding | +19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,035,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,400 @ $1.55 | $86K | −2.7% of holding | +19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,035,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 60,345 @ $1.53 | $92K | −2.8% of holding | +25.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,090,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 60,345 @ $1.53 | $92K | −2.8% of holding | +25.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,090,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 89,255 @ $1.51 | $134K | −4.0% of holding | +28.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,150,745 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 89,255 @ $1.51 | $134K | −4.0% of holding | +28.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,150,745 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 140,000 @ $1.51 | $211K | −5.9% of holding | +19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,240,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 140,000 @ $1.51 | $211K | −5.9% of holding | +19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,240,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 120,000 @ $1.54 | $185K | −4.8% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,380,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 120,000 @ $1.54 | $185K | −4.8% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,380,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 155,000 @ $1.43 | $221K | −5.8% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,500,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-30 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 155,000 @ $1.43 | $221K | −5.8% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,500,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-29 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 45,000 @ $1.41 | $63K | −1.7% of holding | +33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,655,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 45,000 @ $1.41 | $63K | −1.7% of holding | +33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,655,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,858 @ $1.47 | $82K | −2.0% of holding | +23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,700,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,858 @ $1.47 | $82K | −2.0% of holding | +23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,700,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 39,142 @ $1.51 | $59K | −1.4% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,755,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-23 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 39,142 @ $1.51 | $59K | −1.4% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,755,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-22 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 90,000 @ $1.53 | $137K | −3.1% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,795,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 90,000 @ $1.53 | $137K | −3.1% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,795,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 80,000 @ $1.53 | $122K | −2.7% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,885,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 80,000 @ $1.53 | $122K | −2.7% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,885,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35,000 @ $2.43 | $85K | −1.2% of holding | −29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,965,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35,000 @ $2.43 | $85K | −1.2% of holding | −29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,965,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 400,000 @ $2.44 | $976K | −11.8% of holding | −30.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 400,000 @ $2.44 | $976K | −11.8% of holding | −30.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,000 @ $2.04 | $204K | −20.0% of holding | −19.8% | −25.9% | 400,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,000 @ $2.04 | $204K | −20.0% of holding | −19.8% | −25.9% | 400,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 79,858 @ $2.05 | $164K | −13.8% of holding | −21.4% | −28.4% | 500,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 79,858 @ $2.05 | $164K | −13.8% of holding | −21.4% | −28.4% | 500,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,744 @ $2.00 | $9K | −0.8% of holding | −15.2% | −17.9% | 579,858 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,744 @ $2.00 | $9K | −0.8% of holding | −15.2% | −17.9% | 579,858 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,881 @ $2.00 | $4K | −0.3% of holding | −12.6% | −16.0% | 584,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,881 @ $2.00 | $4K | −0.3% of holding | −12.6% | −16.0% | 584,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 63,517 @ $2.03 | $129K | −9.8% of holding | −7.1% | −24.9% | 586,483 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 63,517 @ $2.03 | $129K | −9.8% of holding | −7.1% | −24.9% | 586,483 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 125,000 @ $2.14 | $268K | −16.1% of holding | −18.1% | −35.5% | 650,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 125,000 @ $2.14 | $268K | −16.1% of holding | −18.1% | −35.5% | 650,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 75,000 @ $2.07 | $155K | −8.8% of holding | −14.3% | −32.8% | 775,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 75,000 @ $2.07 | $155K | −8.8% of holding | −14.3% | −32.8% | 775,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,000 @ $2.14 | $214K | −10.5% of holding | −15.3% | −32.7% | 850,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,000 @ $2.14 | $214K | −10.5% of holding | −15.3% | −32.7% | 850,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 150,000 @ $2.03 | $305K | −13.6% of holding | −16.2% | −19.9% | 950,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 150,000 @ $2.03 | $305K | −13.6% of holding | −16.2% | −19.9% | 950,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
70 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Alexander Ralph | director | Award / grant | 71,770 | 176,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | PETERSON CAROL R. | director | Award / grant | 71,770 | 176,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kelliher Joseph T | director | Award / grant | 71,770 | 176,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Veltmann Alejandra | director | Award / grant | 71,770 | 176,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,000,000 | 3,400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,000,000 | 3,400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 3,000,000 | 17,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,000,000 | 3,400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 3,000,000 | 17,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 3,000,000 | 17,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,000,000 | 3,400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 3,000,000 | 17,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,000,000 | 3,400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 3,000,000 | 17,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 3,838,653 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 3,838,653 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 3,838,653 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 3,838,653 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 3,838,653 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,000,000 | 20,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-02 | Beauchamp Cynda | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,847,130 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-02 | Beauchamp Cynda | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 22,729,880 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-02 | Beauchamp Cynda | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 22,729,880 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-02 | Beauchamp Cynda | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 22,729,880 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-02 | Beauchamp Cynda | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 22,729,880 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-02 | Beauchamp Cynda | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,847,130 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,000,000 | 22,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | NPEH, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,000,000 | 22,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,000,000 | 22,729,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,000,000 | 4,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | 8 Rivers Capital, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,000,000 | 22,729,880 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.