Issued 2026-09-16 at $287.16 · now $287.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NPO has typically landed between $250.30 and $346.59 — a range of −12.8% to +20.7% from the issuance price $287.16.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($287.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NPO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $287.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $287.16 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $291.4 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $271.3–$311.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $250.3–$346.59
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −48.3% | −48.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −45.6% | −48.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −45.5% | −45.5% | +2.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-10 | +42.9% | +0.0% | +42.9% |
| 2009-03-11 | +41.3% | +0.0% | +41.3% |
| 2009-07-13 | +41.1% | −0.2% | +41.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | Bower Steven R. | officer | Sale | 507 @ $265.15 | $134K | −9.7% of holding | +0.0% | +0.1% | 4,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | Humphrey John | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $268.69 | $349K | −28.9% of holding | +0.2% | +4.9% | 3,200 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | McLean Robert Savage | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $277.50 | $555K | −6.3% of holding | −3.2% | −2.7% | 29,909 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Brueck Felix M. | director | Sale | 4,822 @ $275.69 | $1.3M | −75.5% of holding | −2.5% | −1.6% | 1,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Brueck Felix M. | director | Sale | 1,031 @ $276.52 | $285K | −13.9% of holding | −2.5% | −1.6% | 6,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Vaillancourt Eric A. | director | Sale | 2,272 @ $227.00 | $516K | −5.6% of holding | +2.6% | +37.6% | 38,047 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | McLean Robert Savage | officer | Sale | 2,541 @ $223.77 | $569K | −8.0% of holding | −3.0% | +15.1% | 29,116 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-25 | Bower Steven R. | officer | Sale | 997 @ $199.66 | $199K | −100.0% of holding | −8.5% | +4.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
255 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Bianchi Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 189 | 335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Bianchi Amy | officer | Option exercise | 524 | 524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Bianchi Amy | officer | Option exercise | 524 | 1,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Reinsdorf Judith A | director | Award / grant | 74 | 1,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Abbey William | director | Award / grant | 66 | 1,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Botts Thomas M. | director | Award / grant | 57 | 18,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Botts Thomas M. | director | Award / grant | 13 | 17,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Humphrey John | director | Award / grant | 11 | 17,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Brueck Felix M. | director | Award / grant | 11 | 22,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Brueck Felix M. | director | Award / grant | 9 | 22,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Humphrey John | director | Award / grant | 8 | 17,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Gulfo Adele M. | director | Award / grant | 4 | 5,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Botts Thomas M. | director | Award / grant | 3 | 17,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Abbey William | director | Award / grant | 1 | 1,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Reinsdorf Judith A | director | Award / grant | 1 | 1,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Gulfo Adele M. | director | Award / grant | 0 | 5,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Reinsdorf Judith A | director | Award / grant | 112 | 1,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Keating Ronald C | director | Award / grant | 100 | 4,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Abbey William | director | Award / grant | 100 | 1,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Botts Thomas M. | director | Award / grant | 58 | 17,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | HAUSER DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 38 | 38,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Botts Thomas M. | director | Award / grant | 19 | 17,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Brueck Felix M. | director | Award / grant | 15 | 22,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Humphrey John | director | Award / grant | 14 | 17,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Brueck Felix M. | director | Award / grant | 13 | 22,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Humphrey John | director | Award / grant | 11 | 17,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | HAUSER DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 11 | 38,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Gulfo Adele M. | director | Award / grant | 5 | 5,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Botts Thomas M. | director | Award / grant | 4 | 17,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Keating Ronald C | director | Award / grant | 2 | 4,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Abbey William | director | Award / grant | 2 | 1,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Reinsdorf Judith A | director | Award / grant | 1 | 998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Gulfo Adele M. | director | Award / grant | 1 | 5,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bower Steven R. | officer | Option exercise | 1,551 | 5,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bower Steven R. | officer | Option exercise | 1,551 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Joiner Larisa R. | officer | Award / grant | 988 | 988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Bower Steven R. | officer | Award / grant | 766 | 766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Bianchi Amy | officer | Award / grant | 1,488 | 1,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Vaillancourt Eric A. | director | Award / grant | 13,351 | 13,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Bruderek Joseph F Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 3,147 | 3,147 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.