NPKINPK International Inc.Basic Materials · Construction Materialsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.91 · now $12.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NPKI has typically landed between $10.85 and $15.27 — a range of −16.0% to +18.2% from the issuance price $12.91.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

431 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-11-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NPKI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.85worst · -16.0%$15.27best · +18.2%
  • now $12.91 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.13 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.31–$13.96
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.85–$15.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 431 windows spanning 2024-11-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-06-29−24.1%−24.1%+0.3%
2026-06-30−21.7%−24.3%+0.0%
2025-01-31−21.2%−21.2%+1.3%
3 best
2025-04-10+64.8%+0.0%+64.8%
2025-04-08+62.8%+0.0%+62.8%
2025-04-14+62.5%+0.0%+65.2%

431 overlapping windows · 2024-11-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+3.0%
n=2
Feb
50%
−3.7%
n=2
Mar
50%
−2.2%
n=2
Apr
50%
+6.2%
n=2
May
50%
+14.4%
n=2
Jun
100%
+7.4%
n=2
Jul
50%
−7.8%
n=2
Aug
100%
+10.8%
n=2
Sep
50%
+3.0%
n=2
Oct
100%
+8.8%
n=1
Nov
100%
+0.1%
n=1
Dec
0%
−5.7%
n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$16$102026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $40K — Warren Matthew James2026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $135K — ROBESON ROSE M2026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $29K — Lewis Michael A2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $123K — Briggs Lori2026-06-03: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — LANIGAN MATTHEW2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $152K — Briggs Lori2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $31K — Lewis Michael A2026-04-09: 1 insider sale, $226K — Piontek Gregg2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $508K — Piontek Gregg2026-03-25: 1 insider sale, $225K — Piontek Gregg2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $14K — Fruge Mary Celeste2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $149K — Fruge Mary Celeste2026-03-04: 2 insider sales, $1.5M — Piontek Gregg …2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $29K — Lewis Michael A2025-11-24: 1 insider sale, $24K — Lewis Michael A2025-10-01: 1 insider sale, $116K — Briggs Lori2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $10K — LANIGAN MATTHEW2025-08-25: 1 insider sale, $21K — Lewis Michael A2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $713K — LANIGAN MATTHEW2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $809K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $10K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $116K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $24K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $29K2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $734K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $31K2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $2.7M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $164K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $40K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Warren Matthew James — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROBESON ROSE M — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lewis Michael A — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Briggs Lori — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LANIGAN MATTHEW — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Briggs Lori — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lewis Michael A — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Piontek Gregg — Sale on 2026-04-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Piontek Gregg — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Piontek Gregg — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fruge Mary Celeste — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Fruge Mary Celeste — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Piontek Gregg — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Piontek Gregg — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lewis Michael A — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lewis Michael A — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Briggs Lori — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector LANIGAN MATTHEW — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lewis Michael A — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LANIGAN MATTHEW — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Warren Matthew JamesofficerSale2,991 @ $13.41$40K−5.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open51,439Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-27ROBESON ROSE MdirectorSale10,000 @ $13.49$135K−4.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open215,147Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-17Lewis Michael AdirectorSale2,013 @ $14.26$29K−1.5% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open135,865Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08Briggs LoriofficerSale8,325 @ $14.75$123K−3.3% of holding−5.0%not yet — horizon still open247,165Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorSale167,375 @ $14.43$2.4M−39.7% of holding−2.1%not yet — horizon still open254,699Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02Briggs LoriofficerSale10,446 @ $14.58$152K−3.9% of holding−0.2%not yet — horizon still open255,490Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15Lewis Michael AdirectorSale2,013 @ $15.30$31K−1.5% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open129,320Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-09Piontek GreggofficerSale15,000 @ $15.04$226K−1.8% of holding−9.0%not yet — horizon still open819,326Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-01Piontek GreggofficerSale35,000 @ $14.51$508K−4.0% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open834,326Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25Piontek GreggofficerSale15,000 @ $15.03$225K−1.7% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open869,326Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16Fruge Mary CelesteofficerSale1,000 @ $13.56$14K−0.4% of holding+5.6%−19.2%265,213Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06Fruge Mary CelesteofficerSale11,193 @ $13.34$149K−4.0% of holding+7.4%−17.7%265,213Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04Piontek GreggofficerSale73,590 @ $14.10$1.0M−7.4% of holding+6.5%−18.1%919,326Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Piontek GreggofficerSale35,000 @ $14.02$491K−3.8% of holding+6.5%−18.1%884,326Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Lewis Michael AdirectorSale2,013 @ $14.31$29K−1.5% of holding+7.4%−21.0%131,333Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-24Lewis Michael AdirectorSale2,013 @ $12.00$24K−1.5% of holding−1.4%+12.6%133,346Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-01Briggs LoriofficerSale10,108 @ $11.51$116K−4.0% of holding+13.0%+24.4%242,513Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorSale1,000 @ $10.38$10K−0.1% of holding+5.3%+27.6%1,095,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25Lewis Michael AdirectorSale2,013 @ $10.33$21K−1.5% of holding+4.7%+30.1%135,359Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorSale68,896 @ $10.34$713K−5.9% of holding+4.8%+32.1%1,095,913Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-11Briggs LoriofficerSale8,005 @ $9.51$76K−3.1% of holding+9.7%+40.5%252,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-09Briggs LoriofficerSale8,005 @ $8.57$69K−3.0% of holding+3.8%+30.4%260,626Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16Lewis Michael AdirectorSale2,013 @ $8.60$17K−1.4% of holding−7.4%+33.5%137,372Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06Briggs LoriofficerSale9,704 @ $8.38$81K−3.5% of holding−2.9%+36.9%268,631Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-19Meer Claudia MicheldirectorPurchase4,000 @ $7.92$32K+3.5% of holding+6.7%+33.0%118,135Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorPurchase12,500 @ $8.00$100Kownership Δ n/a−2.4%+38.3%12,500Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05MINGE JOHN CdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $5.38$54K+4.5% of holding+7.3%+80.2%230,287Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

88 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-28Pederson Kristen J.directorAward / grant6,6146,614Form 4
2026-06-01LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorWithheld for tax39,423321,886Form 4
2026-06-01LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorWithheld for tax27,894361,309Form 4
2026-06-01LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorWithheld for tax22,232389,203Form 4
2026-06-01Piontek GreggofficerWithheld for tax15,889829,044Form 4
2026-06-01Piontek GreggofficerWithheld for tax11,241817,803Form 4
2026-06-01Briggs LoriofficerWithheld for tax9,577248,373Form 4
2026-06-01Piontek GreggofficerWithheld for tax8,959844,933Form 4
2026-06-01Fruge Mary CelesteofficerWithheld for tax6,797267,367Form 4
2026-06-01Briggs LoriofficerWithheld for tax6,777241,596Form 4
2026-06-01Briggs LoriofficerWithheld for tax5,401257,950Form 4
2026-06-01Fruge Mary CelesteofficerWithheld for tax5,218274,164Form 4
2026-06-01Fruge Mary CelesteofficerWithheld for tax3,833279,382Form 4
2026-06-01Briggs LoriofficerOption exercise24,3400Form 4
2026-06-01Fruge Mary CelesteofficerOption exercise17,274284,641Form 4
2026-06-01Fruge Mary CelesteofficerOption exercise17,2740Form 4
2026-06-01Briggs LoriofficerOption exercise24,340265,936Form 4
2026-06-01LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorOption exercise100,188422,074Form 4
2026-06-01LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorOption exercise100,1880Form 4
2026-06-01Piontek GreggofficerOption exercise40,379858,182Form 4
2026-06-01Piontek GreggofficerOption exercise40,3790Form 4
2026-05-20CUTILLO JOSEPH AdirectorAward / grant8,55836,155Form 4
2026-05-20LARSON RODERICK A.directorAward / grant8,55823,655Form 4
2026-05-20ROBESON ROSE MdirectorAward / grant10,862225,147Form 4
2026-05-20Lewis Michael AdirectorAward / grant8,558137,878Form 4
2026-05-20MINGE JOHN CdirectorAward / grant8,558253,942Form 4
2026-05-20Meer Claudia MicheldirectorAward / grant8,558126,693Form 4
2026-05-19Briggs LoriofficerAward / grant20,838263,351Form 4
2026-05-19LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorAward / grant85,771411,435Form 4
2026-05-19Fruge Mary CelesteofficerAward / grant18,002283,215Form 4
2026-05-19Piontek GreggofficerAward / grant34,566853,892Form 4
2026-03-16Fruge Mary CelesteofficerOption exercise1,000266,213Form 4
2026-03-16Fruge Mary CelesteofficerOption exercise1,0000Form 4
2026-03-06Fruge Mary CelesteofficerOption exercise11,193276,406Form 4
2026-03-06Fruge Mary CelesteofficerOption exercise11,1931,000Form 4
2026-03-04Piontek GreggofficerOption exercise73,590992,916Form 4
2026-03-04Piontek GreggofficerOption exercise73,5900Form 4
2025-10-03LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorGift770,249325,664Form 4
2025-09-03LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorOption exercise1,0000Form 4
2025-09-03LANIGAN MATTHEWdirectorOption exercise1,0001,096,913Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.