Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.67 · now $16.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NPB has typically landed between $14.99 and $18.93 — a range of −10.1% to +13.6% from the issuance price $16.67.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
377 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-02-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NPB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.67 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.67 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.79–$17.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.99–$18.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 377 windows spanning 2025-02-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-18 | −17.4% | −17.4% | +1.3% |
| 2025-03-19 | −17.3% | −17.3% | +2.4% |
| 2025-03-17 | −15.9% | −16.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-06 | +26.1% | −1.7% | +26.1% |
| 2025-08-01 | +24.1% | +0.0% | +24.1% |
| 2025-08-07 | +23.9% | +0.0% | +28.3% |
377 overlapping windows · 2025-02-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+2.9%
n=1
Feb
100%
+4.8%
n=1
Mar
0%
−2.4%
n=2
Apr
50%
−0.5%
n=2
May
0%
−4.3%
n=2
Jun
100%
+8.3%
n=2
Jul
50%
−0.7%
n=2
Aug
50%
+9.3%
n=2
Sep
0%
−3.0%
n=2
Oct
0%
−7.1%
n=1
Nov
100%
+10.0%
n=1
Dec
0%
−3.8%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Purchase | 85,000 @ $16.74 | $1.4M | +3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,475,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Purchase | 48,312 @ $16.95 | $819K | +2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,390,962 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $16.95 | $508K | +1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,342,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 720 @ $17.50 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 806,879 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 52 @ $17.51 | $910 | −0.5% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 339 @ $17.53 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 807,599 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 24 @ $17.53 | $421 | −0.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 2,946 @ $17.57 | $52K | −0.4% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 807,938 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 210 @ $17.57 | $4K | −2.0% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,076 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 2,995 @ $17.59 | $53K | −0.4% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 810,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 214 @ $17.59 | $4K | −2.0% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,286 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $19.30 | $135K | −0.9% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 813,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 500 @ $19.30 | $10K | −4.5% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 2,194 @ $17.70 | $39K | −0.3% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 820,879 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 157 @ $17.70 | $3K | −1.4% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 722 @ $17.52 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 823,073 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 17 @ $17.53 | $298 | −0.2% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,157 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 234 @ $17.52 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 823,795 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 51 @ $17.52 | $894 | −0.5% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,174 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 3,850 @ $17.50 | $67K | −0.5% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 824,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 275 @ $17.51 | $5K | −2.4% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,225 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $17.08 | $427K | +1.1% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,312,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $17.21 | $430K | +1.1% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,287,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $17.82 | $125K | −0.8% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 827,879 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 500 @ $17.82 | $9K | −4.2% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Dean Richard Jeffery | director | Sale | 57,619 @ $17.55 | $1.0M | −9.4% of holding | +3.1% | −16.6% | 557,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Lawrence David F. | director | Purchase | 500 @ $18.18 | $9K | +100.0% of holding | −1.6% | −22.0% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Purchase | 23,450 @ $16.88 | $396K | +74.6% of holding | +1.4% | −13.5% | 54,896 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Purchase | 14,205 @ $16.90 | $240K | +82.4% of holding | +7.7% | −9.9% | 31,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Butler Amy M | officer | Sale | 6,365 @ $17.50 | $111K | −100.0% of holding | +4.9% | −8.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Butler Amy M | officer | Sale | 6,800 @ $18.05 | $123K | −51.7% of holding | +4.0% | −8.5% | 6,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Butler Amy M | officer | Sale | 3,111 @ $17.95 | $56K | −19.1% of holding | +4.0% | −8.5% | 13,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Lawrence David F. | director | Purchase | 500 @ $16.58 | $8K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.0% | +0.3% | 500 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Sale | 65,161 @ $18.21 | $1.2M | −7.2% of holding | −7.5% | −7.0% | 834,879 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | De Vlieger Robert W II | director | Sale | 50,819 @ $13.56 | $689K | −6.3% of holding | +4.1% | +15.9% | 760,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | De Vlieger Robert W II | director | Sale | 97,983 @ $14.50 | $1.4M | −10.8% of holding | +4.8% | +8.8% | 811,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Second Rewrittwen Trust Indenture of the John S Simoni Living Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 66,956 @ $14.50 | $971K | −2.5% of holding | +4.8% | +8.8% | 2,575,664 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Purchase | 17,241 @ $14.50 | $250K | ownership Δ n/a | +4.8% | +8.8% | 17,241 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Lawrence David F. | director | Award / grant | 2,606 | 2,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Hooker David Stevens | director | Award / grant | 2,606 | 2,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Hood Rodney E. | director | Award / grant | 2,606 | 2,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | De Vlieger Robert W II | director | Award / grant | 2,606 | 2,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Boer Carrie L | director | Award / grant | 2,606 | 2,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Tuttle John Robert | director | Award / grant | 2,606 | 2,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Chaudhary Rajeev Kumar | director | Award / grant | 2,606 | 2,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Howes Brad T | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 14,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Comps Kevin J | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,017 | 51,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Christel David J | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,673 | 207,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Howes Brad T | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,912 | 10,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Butler Amy M | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,173 | 4,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Christel David J | officer | Option exercise | 9,333 | 211,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Butler Amy M | officer | Award / grant | 21,000 | 21,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Christel David J | officer | Option exercise | 9,333 | 18,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Comps Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 9,333 | 55,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Christel David J | officer | Award / grant | 28,000 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Comps Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 9,333 | 18,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Butler Amy M | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 7,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Option exercise | 49,560 | 158,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Option exercise | 9,333 | 18,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Howes Brad T | officer | Award / grant | 21,000 | 21,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Butler Amy M | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 14,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Howes Brad T | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 13,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Award / grant | 28,000 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Comps Kevin J | officer | Award / grant | 28,000 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Option exercise | 49,560 | 104,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Williams Charles Alan | director | Option exercise | 9,333 | 113,789 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Comps Kevin J | officer | Withheld for tax | 34,745 | 45,952 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Christel David J | officer | Withheld for tax | 33,801 | 202,096 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Butler Amy M | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,821 | 16,276 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Howes Brad T | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,457 | 6,133 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Howes Brad T | officer | Option exercise | 8,590 | 17,180 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Christel David J | officer | Option exercise | 85,897 | 235,897 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Christel David J | officer | Option exercise | 85,897 | 171,793 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Comps Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 79,697 | 80,697 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Comps Kevin J | officer | Option exercise | 79,697 | 159,393 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Howes Brad T | officer | Option exercise | 8,590 | 8,590 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Butler Amy M | officer | Option exercise | 23,097 | 23,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Butler Amy M | officer | Option exercise | 23,097 | 46,193 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.