NOWServiceNow, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $139.82 · now $139.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NOW has typically landed between $116.07 and $165.90 — a range of −17.0% to +18.7% from the issuance price $139.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,552 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-06-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($139.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NOW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $139.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$116.07worst · -17.0%$165.9best · +18.7%
  • now $139.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $140.05 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $130.48–$149.61
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $116.07–$165.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,552 windows spanning 2012-06-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2016-01-07−40.8%−40.8%+1.7%
2016-01-12−39.4%−41.8%+0.0%
2016-01-08−37.9%−39.6%+3.7%
3 best
2026-04-30+53.8%−1.4%+53.8%
2020-04-03+48.5%+0.0%+48.5%
2020-04-07+45.5%+0.0%+45.5%

3,552 overlapping windows · 2012-06-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$102.1B
market cap
$1.60
EPS (TTM)
61.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-11-04
next earnings
Revenue$13.3B
'20'25
Net income$1.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr13.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.25
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $139.82$40.23$250.50
  • DCF (intrinsic)$113.99
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$54.73
  • Analyst target · range $85.00–$236.00$134.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$139.82

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
57%
+3.7%
n=14
Feb
43%
+0.2%
n=14
Mar
50%
−0.9%
n=14
Apr
57%
+2.2%
n=14
May
64%
+5.2%
n=14
Jun
71%
+3.4%
n=14
Jul
80%
+4.1%
n=15
Aug
67%
+5.1%
n=15
Sep
47%
+1.0%
n=15
Oct
71%
+4.3%
n=14
Nov
50%
+2.2%
n=14
Dec
50%
−0.8%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$192$832026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $301K — Fipps Paul2026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Canney Jacqueline P2026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $366K — Chamberlain Paul Edward2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $188K — Chamberlain Paul Edward2026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $173K — Briggs Teresa2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $103K — Fipps Paul2026-05-14: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — Sands Anita M, Chamberlain Paul Edward2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $14K — Fipps Paul2026-04-24: 1 insider sale, $800K — Canney Jacqueline P2026-02-27: 2 insider purchases, $3.0M — McDermott William R …2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $376K — Fipps Paul2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Fipps Paul2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $148K — McBride Kevin Thomas2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $152K — Chamberlain Paul Edward2025-08: 38 open-market sales, $16.0M2025-11: 14 open-market sales, $2.6M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $353K2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $3.0M2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $800K2026-05: 5 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $1.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Fipps Paul — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Canney Jacqueline P — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Chamberlain Paul Edward — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Chamberlain Paul Edward — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Briggs Teresa — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fipps Paul — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed same daydirector Sands Anita M — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Chamberlain Paul Edward — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fipps Paul — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Canney Jacqueline P — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McDermott William R — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector McDermott William R — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Fipps Paul — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fipps Paul — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McBride Kevin Thomas — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed same daydirector Chamberlain Paul Edward — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Fipps PauldirectorSale2,034 @ $147.87$301K−10.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open18,305Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-28Canney Jacqueline PofficerSale7,847 @ $138.00$1.1M−20.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open30,042Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-27Chamberlain Paul EdwarddirectorSale2,700 @ $135.50$366K−5.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open43,990Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-13Chamberlain Paul EdwarddirectorSale1,500 @ $125.60$188K−3.1% of holding+14.1%not yet — horizon still open46,690Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Briggs TeresadirectorSale1,595 @ $108.70$173K−12.7% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open11,010Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-18Fipps PauldirectorSale1,048 @ $98.51$103K−8.0% of holding−8.0%not yet — horizon still open12,072Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-14Sands Anita MdirectorSale16,445 @ $90.14$1.5M−35.3% of holding+14.2%not yet — horizon still open30,090Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Chamberlain Paul EdwarddirectorSale1,500 @ $87.23$131K−3.2% of holding+14.2%not yet — horizon still open44,930Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08Fipps PauldirectorSale151 @ $90.47$14K−1.8% of holding+17.4%not yet — horizon still open8,144Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24Canney Jacqueline PofficerSale8,927 @ $89.60$800K−23.2% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open29,531Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27McDermott William RdirectorPurchase28,677 @ $104.60$3.0M+22.1% of holding+4.8%+21.2%158,229Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27McDermott William RdirectorPurchase5 @ $105.96$530+0.0% of holding+4.8%+21.2%158,234Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-23Fipps PauldirectorSale3,696 @ $101.77$376K−31.4% of holding+7.8%+14.6%8,061Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Fipps PauldirectorSale9,641 @ $105.93$1.0M−45.1% of holding+8.9%+5.3%11,757Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13McBride Kevin ThomasofficerSale1,400 @ $105.71$148K−5.1% of holding+10.6%−4.0%26,314Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12Chamberlain Paul EdwarddirectorSale1,500 @ $101.17$152K−3.1% of holding+13.0%+5.5%46,430Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

284 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17McDermott William RdirectorWithheld for tax2,236184,199Form 4
2026-08-17Mastantuono GinadirectorWithheld for tax858109,256Form 4
2026-08-17Canney Jacqueline PofficerWithheld for tax49637,889Form 4
2026-08-17Fontaine DanielleofficerWithheld for tax16810,887Form 4
2026-08-17Fipps PauldirectorWithheld for tax13620,159Form 4
2026-08-17Fipps PauldirectorWithheld for tax12020,339Form 4
2026-08-17Canney Jacqueline PofficerOption exercise97038,385Form 4
2026-08-17Fontaine DanielleofficerOption exercise485975Form 4
2026-08-17Fipps PauldirectorOption exercise34020,295Form 4
2026-08-17Fipps PauldirectorOption exercise340685Form 4
2026-08-17Canney Jacqueline PofficerOption exercise9701,945Form 4
2026-08-17McDermott William RdirectorOption exercise4,1608,320Form 4
2026-08-17McDermott William RdirectorOption exercise4,160186,435Form 4
2026-08-17Mastantuono GinadirectorOption exercise1,595110,114Form 4
2026-08-17Fipps PauldirectorOption exercise30020,459Form 4
2026-08-17Mastantuono GinadirectorOption exercise1,5953,190Form 4
2026-08-17Fipps PauldirectorOption exercise3001,195Form 4
2026-08-17Fontaine DanielleofficerOption exercise48511,055Form 4
2026-08-14McDermott William RdirectorWithheld for tax4,772182,275Form 4
2026-08-14Zavery AmitdirectorWithheld for tax3,86086,065Form 4
2026-08-14McDermott William RdirectorWithheld for tax3,373178,170Form 4
2026-08-14Mastantuono GinadirectorWithheld for tax3,012108,519Form 4
2026-08-14Fipps PauldirectorWithheld for tax2,23719,955Form 4
2026-08-14Canney Jacqueline PofficerWithheld for tax1,82137,415Form 4
2026-08-14Zavery AmitdirectorWithheld for tax1,68682,745Form 4
2026-08-14Mastantuono GinadirectorWithheld for tax1,266105,929Form 4
2026-08-14Nowbar HosseinofficerWithheld for tax1,1257,175Form 4
2026-08-14Nowbar HosseinofficerWithheld for tax8708,514Form 4
2026-08-14Canney Jacqueline PofficerWithheld for tax76135,670Form 4
2026-08-14Fipps PauldirectorWithheld for tax44416,590Form 4
2026-08-14Fipps PauldirectorWithheld for tax37615,924Form 4
2026-08-14Fontaine DanielleofficerWithheld for tax25610,570Form 4
2026-08-14Fontaine DanielleofficerWithheld for tax8210,086Form 4
2026-08-14Canney Jacqueline PofficerOption exercise1,4908,945Form 4
2026-08-14Fontaine DanielleofficerOption exercise74010,357Form 4
2026-08-14McDermott William RdirectorOption exercise6,27537,645Form 4
2026-08-14McDermott William RdirectorOption exercise8,87788,765Form 4
2026-08-14Mastantuono GinadirectorOption exercise2,35514,120Form 4
2026-08-14Fontaine DanielleofficerOption exercise2352,355Form 4
2026-08-14Mastantuono GinadirectorOption exercise2,355107,195Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-05-192026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2026-04-082026-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.