Issued 2026-09-16 at $132.80 · now $132.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NOVT has typically landed between $112.91 and $156.69 — a range of −15.0% to +18.0% from the issuance price $132.80.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($132.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NOVT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $132.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $132.8 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $132.19 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $123.34–$141.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $112.91–$156.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-11-07 | −72.9% | −72.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-11-10 | −68.8% | −71.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-11-06 | −68.7% | −68.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-02-19 | +156.3% | +0.0% | +156.3% |
| 2010-02-18 | +146.3% | +0.0% | +148.7% |
| 2010-02-12 | +135.4% | −3.7% | +142.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+4.7%
n=20
Feb
55%
+4.1%
n=20
Mar
55%
+3.6%
n=20
Apr
65%
+3.9%
n=20
May
65%
+4.1%
n=20
Jun
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Jul
40%
−3.9%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.3%
n=20
Oct
65%
+2.6%
n=20
Nov
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Secor Thomas N | director | Sale | 663 @ $147.60 | $98K | −50.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 662 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 3,024 @ $160.13 | $484K | −8.3% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,237 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,672 @ $161.28 | $270K | −5.0% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,565 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,167 @ $162.01 | $189K | −3.7% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,398 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 437 @ $163.71 | $72K | −1.4% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,961 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 200 @ $164.20 | $33K | −0.7% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,761 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 2,841 @ $168.76 | $479K | −7.0% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,962 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,420 @ $167.68 | $238K | −3.4% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,803 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,301 @ $169.76 | $221K | −3.4% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,661 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 500 @ $166.19 | $83K | −1.2% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 400 @ $171.28 | $69K | −1.1% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 38 @ $164.61 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 5,079 @ $150.00 | $762K | −10.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 2,421 @ $151.34 | $366K | −5.4% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 4,275 @ $130.59 | $558K | −7.5% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,486 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,180 @ $132.51 | $156K | −2.3% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,284 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,022 @ $131.75 | $135K | −1.9% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,464 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 23 @ $133.27 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $130.05 | $845K | −10.3% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,761 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Buckley Robert | officer | Sale | 4,719 @ $116.84 | $551K | −4.6% of holding | +2.2% | +3.3% | 98,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Buckley Robert | officer | Sale | 3,215 @ $116.02 | $373K | −3.0% of holding | +2.2% | +3.3% | 103,358 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Buckley Robert | officer | Sale | 1,937 @ $117.74 | $228K | −2.0% of holding | +2.2% | +3.3% | 96,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Buckley Robert | officer | Sale | 86 @ $118.80 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | +2.2% | +3.3% | 96,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,796 @ $140.48 | $252K | −2.8% of holding | −11.1% | −8.4% | 63,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,375 @ $137.28 | $189K | −2.0% of holding | −11.1% | −8.4% | 67,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,180 @ $139.50 | $165K | −1.8% of holding | −11.1% | −8.4% | 65,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 940 @ $138.67 | $130K | −1.4% of holding | −11.1% | −8.4% | 66,237 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 586 @ $136.35 | $80K | −0.8% of holding | −11.1% | −8.4% | 68,552 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 500 @ $133.77 | $67K | −0.7% of holding | −11.1% | −8.4% | 69,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 74 @ $134.69 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −11.1% | −8.4% | 69,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 49 @ $131.92 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −11.1% | −8.4% | 69,712 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Buckley Robert | officer | Sale | 986 @ $140.09 | $138K | −1.0% of holding | −14.9% | −12.1% | 94,251 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Buckley Robert | officer | Sale | 425 @ $142.62 | $61K | −0.5% of holding | −14.9% | −12.1% | 93,826 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Buckley Robert | officer | Sale | 12 @ $143.71 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −14.9% | −12.1% | 93,814 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $145.04 | $1.1M | −11.6% of holding | −13.8% | +3.0% | 57,367 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 3,606 @ $134.52 | $485K | −5.1% of holding | +6.2% | +7.2% | 67,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,738 @ $135.50 | $235K | −2.6% of holding | +6.2% | +7.2% | 66,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 1,108 @ $136.54 | $151K | −1.7% of holding | +6.2% | +7.2% | 64,915 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 48 @ $137.38 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | +6.2% | +7.2% | 64,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $140.00 | $1.1M | −9.5% of holding | +3.1% | −6.5% | 71,367 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Buckley Robert | officer | Sale | 1,423 @ $140.14 | $199K | −1.5% of holding | +3.1% | −6.5% | 91,034 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 6,177 @ $130.00 | $803K | −7.3% of holding | +11.1% | +3.1% | 78,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Sale | 323 @ $130.14 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | +11.4% | +7.2% | 85,044 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Secor Thomas N | director | Sale | 747 @ $120.16 | $90K | −100.0% of holding | +14.0% | +25.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Secor Thomas N | director | Sale | 748 @ $119.67 | $90K | −50.0% of holding | +9.5% | +17.3% | 747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Buckley Robert | officer | Sale | 1,617 @ $170.16 | $275K | −1.3% of holding | −9.8% | −23.8% | 120,419 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
237 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Buckley Robert | officer | Option exercise | 9,957 | 106,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Buckley Robert | officer | Option exercise | 9,957 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Withheld for tax | 5,247 | 69,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Buckley Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,624 | 96,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 243 | 16,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Withheld for tax | 141 | 8,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Buckley Robert | officer | Option exercise | 5,426 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Option exercise | 825 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Option exercise | 825 | 16,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Option exercise | 825 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Option exercise | 825 | 16,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Option exercise | 479 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Option exercise | 479 | 9,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Buckley Robert | officer | Option exercise | 5,426 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Buckley Robert | officer | Option exercise | 5,426 | 99,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Option exercise | 10,852 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Option exercise | 10,852 | 75,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Option exercise | 479 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Option exercise | 479 | 9,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Option exercise | 10,852 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Buckley Robert | officer | Option exercise | 5,426 | 99,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Option exercise | 10,852 | 75,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 311 | 15,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Withheld for tax | 176 | 8,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Option exercise | 1,059 | 1,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Option exercise | 519 | 519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Option exercise | 1,059 | 15,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Option exercise | 519 | 8,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Option exercise | 1,059 | 1,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Option exercise | 1,059 | 15,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Option exercise | 519 | 8,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Option exercise | 519 | 519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Glastra Matthijs | director | Withheld for tax | 2,574 | 64,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Buckley Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,185 | 93,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Lesica John | officer | Withheld for tax | 480 | 2,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Withheld for tax | 480 | 14,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Burke John Joseph II | officer | Withheld for tax | 170 | 8,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Buckley Robert | officer | Option exercise | 1,423 | 95,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Ravetto Charles Guy JR | officer | Award / grant | 7,537 | 7,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Buckley Robert | officer | Award / grant | 11,990 | 11,990 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.