NOV · TickerCove

NOVNOV Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.55 · now $20.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NOV has typically landed between $17.27 and $24.55 — a range of −16.0% to +19.4% from the issuance price $20.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$20.55 · 88% of range

$12.09 low$21.71 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.5%

typical move · IQR 14.4%

−16.0%worst (p90)+19.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

5 buys · 9 sells · 8 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NOV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $20.55 (+0.0%)
typical $20.86 (+1.5%)
middle 50% $19.38–$22.34
90% range $17.27–$24.55

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−62.8%	−62.8%	+3.3%
2020-02-11	−62.5%	−62.5%	+2.5%
2020-02-13	−61.9%	−62.6%	+1.2%
3 best
2020-10-28	+64.1%	+0.0%	+74.8%
2020-11-04	+60.7%	−0.6%	+60.7%
2020-11-06	+59.5%	+0.0%	+61.7%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

56%

+2.4%

n=18

Feb

58%

+1.0%

n=19

Mar

42%

−2.6%

n=19

Apr

53%

+1.7%

n=19

May

47%

−0.2%

n=19

Jun

53%

−0.1%

n=19

Jul

63%

+3.9%

n=19

Aug

53%

−1.6%

n=19

Sep

42%

−3.0%

n=19

Oct

39%

+1.2%

n=18

Nov

50%

+2.1%

n=18

Dec

56%

+0.1%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-31	HARRISON DAVID D	director	Sale	9,594 @ $19.21	$184K	−7.0% of holding	+2.7%	not yet — horizon still open	126,763	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-23	Rovig Joseph W	officer	Sale	151,086 @ $20.17	$3.0M	−35.9% of holding	+0.7%	−5.1%	269,694	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Sale	30,000 @ $20.00	$600K	−9.8% of holding	+0.7%	−5.1%	276,319	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Sale	20,000 @ $20.32	$406K	−6.1% of holding	+0.7%	−5.1%	306,319	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Sale	10,495 @ $19.94	$209K	−3.8% of holding	+0.7%	−5.1%	265,824	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Sale	9,505 @ $19.95	$190K	−3.6% of holding	+0.7%	−5.1%	256,319	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21	Kendall Christian S	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $14.50	$725K	+139.1% of holding	+1.1%	+22.1%	85,949	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-21	Kendall Christian S	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $14.36	$287K	+125.4% of holding	+1.1%	+22.1%	35,949	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

104 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-20	Donadio Marcela E	director	Award / grant	9,457	106,882	Form 4
2026-05-20	Kendall Christian S	director	Award / grant	9,457	95,406	Form 4
2026-05-20	Chowbey Sanjay	director	Award / grant	9,457	9,457	Form 4
2026-05-20	MELCHER PATRICIA B	director	Award / grant	9,457	34,956	Form 4
2026-05-20	HARRISON DAVID D	director	Award / grant	9,457	136,357	Form 4
2026-05-20	Thomas William R.	director	Award / grant	9,457	101,166	Form 4
2026-05-20	Welborn Robert S.	director	Award / grant	9,457	55,429	Form 4
2026-05-20	Martinez Patricia	director	Award / grant	9,457	34,956	Form 4
2026-03-20	Reed Rodney C.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,995	165,797	Form 4
2026-03-20	Bayardo Jose A	director	Withheld for tax	4,995	745,678	Form 4
2026-03-20	Novak Christy Lynn	officer	Withheld for tax	869	102,561	Form 4
2026-02-23	Rovig Joseph W	officer	Option exercise	72,000	420,780	Form 4
2026-02-23	Rovig Joseph W	officer	Option exercise	79,086	348,780	Form 4
2026-02-23	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Option exercise	30,000	326,319	Form 4
2026-02-23	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Option exercise	20,000	296,319	Form 4
2026-02-23	Bayardo Jose A	director	Withheld for tax	4,220	750,673	Form 4
2026-02-23	Novak Christy Lynn	officer	Withheld for tax	3,843	103,430	Form 4
2026-02-23	Rovig Joseph W	officer	Withheld for tax	2,864	266,830	Form 4
2026-02-23	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,562	253,757	Form 4
2026-02-23	Reed Rodney C.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,035	170,792	Form 4
2026-02-23	Livingston Scott B.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,259	118,213	Form 4
2026-02-23	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Option exercise	20,000	51,178	Form 4
2026-02-23	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Option exercise	30,000	21,178	Form 4
2026-02-23	Rovig Joseph W	officer	Option exercise	79,086	0	Form 4
2026-02-23	Rovig Joseph W	officer	Option exercise	72,000	0	Form 4
2026-02-19	Bayardo Jose A	director	Withheld for tax	9,615	754,893	Form 4
2026-02-19	Novak Christy Lynn	officer	Withheld for tax	6,568	107,273	Form 4
2026-02-19	Rovig Joseph W	officer	Withheld for tax	6,525	269,694	Form 4
2026-02-19	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,838	276,319	Form 4
2026-02-19	Reed Rodney C.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,477	172,827	Form 4
2026-02-19	Livingston Scott B.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,188	119,472	Form 4
2026-02-18	Bayardo Jose A	director	Withheld for tax	21,779	764,508	Form 4
2026-02-18	Rovig Joseph W	officer	Withheld for tax	13,767	276,219	Form 4
2026-02-18	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Withheld for tax	13,223	282,157	Form 4
2026-02-18	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Award / grant	29,765	261,778	Form 4
2026-02-18	Reed Rodney C.	officer	Award / grant	32,391	176,304	Form 4
2026-02-18	Weinstock Craig L.	officer	Award / grant	33,602	295,380	Form 4
2026-02-18	Bayardo Jose A	director	Award / grant	131,316	730,942	Form 4
2026-02-18	Bayardo Jose A	director	Award / grant	55,345	786,287	Form 4
2026-02-18	Livingston Scott B.	officer	Award / grant	28,014	122,660	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Lisa Mcclain	House	sale	2025-08-13	2025-07-16	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-08-13	2025-06-24	$1–15K
Daniel Goldman	House	sale	2023-05-19	2023-04-10	$1–15K
Daniel Goldman	House	purchase	2023-04-17	2023-03-01	$1–15K
Donna Shalala	House	purchase	2020-04-27	2019-02-15	$1–15K
Donna Shalala	House	sale	2020-04-27	2019-06-24	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2019-11-12	2019-10-21	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2019-09-11	2019-08-12	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2019-02-12	2019-01-15	$1–15K
Thomas Macarthur	House	sale	2017-01-07	2016-12-08	$1–15K
Thomas Macarthur	House	purchase	2016-02-06	2016-01-19	$15–50K
Bob Gibbs	House	sale	2015-11-30	2015-11-25	$1–15K
Richard L. Hanna	House	sale	2015-10-13	2015-09-11	$50–100K
Thad Cochran	Senate	sale	2014-11-12	2014-10-15	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i