NOMDNomad Foods LimitedConsumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.99 · now $10.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NOMD has typically landed between $9.54 and $12.29 — a range of −13.2% to +11.8% from the issuance price $10.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,932 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-09-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NOMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$9.54worst · -13.2%$12.29best · +11.8%
  • now $10.99 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.93 (-0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.32–$11.54
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.54–$12.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,932 windows spanning 2014-09-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2016-01-12−46.3%−46.3%+0.0%
2016-01-08−45.5%−45.5%+0.0%
2016-01-11−43.7%−45.5%+0.0%
3 best
2015-03-24+82.4%+0.0%+82.4%
2015-04-16+75.0%+0.0%+82.4%
2015-04-15+75.0%+0.0%+82.4%

2,932 overlapping windows · 2014-09-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
−0.5%
n=12
Feb
50%
−1.2%
n=12
Mar
67%
+2.3%
n=12
Apr
75%
+5.8%
n=12
May
67%
+4.3%
n=12
Jun
50%
+0.5%
n=12
Jul
58%
+2.2%
n=12
Aug
50%
+2.7%
n=12
Sep
42%
−6.1%
n=12
Oct
25%
−4.0%
n=12
Nov
67%
+2.2%
n=12
Dec
58%
−1.0%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$15$92026-08-24: 1 insider purchase, $619K — BRISBY DOMINIC2026-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $335K — BALDEW RUBEN2026-05-15: 1 insider purchase, $1.5M — BRISBY DOMINIC2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $143K — BALDEW RUBEN2026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $913K — ASHKEN IAN G H2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $1.8M — Gottesman Noam2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $4.8M — Gottesman Noam2026-05: 5 open-market purchases, $9.2M2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $954K↑ buys↓ salesdirector BRISBY DOMINIC — Purchase on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BALDEW RUBEN — Purchase on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BRISBY DOMINIC — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector BALDEW RUBEN — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ASHKEN IAN G H — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gottesman Noam — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Gottesman Noam — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24BRISBY DOMINICdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $12.38$619K+7.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open726,794Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19BALDEW RUBENdirectorPurchase28,290 @ $11.85$335K+8.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open367,172Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15BRISBY DOMINICdirectorPurchase150,000 @ $9.79$1.5M+28.5% of holding+2.6%not yet — horizon still open676,794Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-14BALDEW RUBENdirectorPurchase14,731 @ $9.71$143K+4.5% of holding+4.5%not yet — horizon still open338,882Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13ASHKEN IAN G HdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $9.13$913K+591.2% of holding+14.8%not yet — horizon still open116,916Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12Gottesman NoamdirectorPurchase200,000 @ $9.23$1.8M+2.8% of holding+12.6%not yet — horizon still open7,408,560Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Gottesman NoamdirectorPurchase500,000 @ $9.57$4.8M+7.5% of holding+12.7%not yet — horizon still open7,208,560Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

16 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02PARRY VICTORIAdirectorWithheld for tax4,02148,341Form 4
2026-07-02STACK MELANIE DAWNdirectorWithheld for tax4,02139,396Form 4
2026-07-02PILOWSKY AMITdirectorWithheld for tax3,72935,464Form 4
2026-07-02LILLIE JAMES EdirectorWithheld for tax3,580689,386Form 4
2026-07-02Dorman Carey J.directorWithheld for tax1,67629,356Form 4
2026-06-22PARRY VICTORIAdirectorAward / grant13,97252,362Form 4
2026-06-22PILOWSKY AMITdirectorAward / grant21,65639,193Form 4
2026-06-22STACK MELANIE DAWNdirectorAward / grant21,85643,417Form 4
2026-06-22LILLIE JAMES EdirectorAward / grant13,972692,966Form 4
2026-06-22Dorman Carey J.directorAward / grant22,65431,032Form 4
2026-05-07Gottesman NoamdirectorAward / grant1,000,0001,000,000Form 4
2026-05-07FRANKLIN MARTIN EdirectorAward / grant1,000,0001,000,000Form 4
2026-05-07BRISBY DOMINICdirectorAward / grant5,000,0005,000,000Form 4
2026-05-07BALDEW RUBENdirectorAward / grant1,850,0001,850,000Form 4
2026-05-06FRANKLIN MARTIN EdirectorOther acquisition220,0007,442,212Form 4
2026-05-06FRANKLIN MARTIN EdirectorOther acquisition220,0003,321,251Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.