Issued 2026-08-13 at $574.74 · now $574.74 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, NOC has typically landed between $521.66 and $644.92 — a range of −9.2% to +12.2% from the issuance price $574.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($574.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NOC has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $574.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $574.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $579.03 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $554.81–$603.25
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $521.66–$644.92
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-11 | −40.1% | −40.1% | +1.2% |
| 2008-09-12 | −37.2% | −40.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-16 | −36.9% | −37.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +38.8% | −0.5% | +38.8% |
| 2009-03-09 | +33.4% | +0.0% | +39.6% |
| 2022-02-03 | +28.4% | −1.1% | +28.4% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$970.88
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$964.96
- Analyst target · range $500.00–$815.00$671.50
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$574.74
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
No Form 4 filings for this company are in our record yet.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Steve Cohen | House | sale | 2026-01-26 | 2025-12-29 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Sheri Biggs | House | sale | 2025-10-05 | 2025-03-19 | $15–50K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | sale | 2025-08-20 | 2025-07-11 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | purchase | 2025-08-20 | 2024-09-26 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-06-09 | 2025-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-06-06 | 2025-05-30 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-09 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-04 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.