Issued 2026-09-25 at $510.52 · now $510.52 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, NOC has typically landed between $462.23 and $572.48 — a range of −9.5% to +12.1% from the issuance price $510.52.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($510.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NOC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $510.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $510.52 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $514.14 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $492.59–$535.69
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $462.23–$572.48
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-11 | −40.1% | −40.1% | +1.2% |
| 2008-09-12 | −37.2% | −40.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-16 | −36.9% | −37.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +38.8% | −0.5% | +38.8% |
| 2009-03-09 | +33.4% | +0.0% | +39.6% |
| 2022-02-03 | +28.4% | −1.1% | +28.4% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$970.88
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$964.96
- Analyst target · range $500.00–$815.00$671.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$510.52
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 31 @ $547.42 | $17K | −0.7% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 19 @ $545.59 | $10K | −0.4% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 11 @ $546.42 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 10 @ $548.32 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,409 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 8 @ $544.53 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 6 @ $549.50 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,403 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 4 @ $554.14 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 2 @ $553.90 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 2 @ $552.95 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,399 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 2 @ $550.68 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 43 @ $570.47 | $25K | −1.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 14 @ $573.51 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,135 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 9 @ $569.49 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,201 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 7 @ $576.38 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,122 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 6 @ $572.72 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 5 @ $568.75 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 4 @ $575.59 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 3 @ $571.74 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 2 @ $574.51 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 1 @ $577.05 | $577 | −0.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,121 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 1 @ $566.60 | $567 | −0.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Simpson Kathryn G | officer | Sale | 873 @ $745.00 | $650K | −99.8% of holding | −6.2% | −41.8% | 1 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | ROEDER ROSHAN S | officer | Sale | 1,754 @ $720.00 | $1.3M | −42.7% of holding | +0.3% | −37.4% | 2,353 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | ROEDER ROSHAN S | officer | Sale | 512 @ $727.62 | $373K | −11.1% of holding | +1.2% | −34.9% | 4,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Simpson Kathryn G | officer | Sale | 194 @ $727.62 | $141K | −18.2% of holding | +1.2% | −34.9% | 874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Hardesty Michael A | officer | Sale | 147 @ $732.98 | $108K | −5.5% of holding | +1.2% | −34.9% | 2,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Davies Benjamin R. | officer | Sale | 2,189 @ $719.61 | $1.6M | −93.5% of holding | +2.7% | −31.6% | 151 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Simpson Kathryn G | officer | Sale | 779 @ $702.56 | $547K | −42.2% of holding | +6.9% | −28.3% | 1,068 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Hardesty Michael A | officer | Sale | 716 @ $700.63 | $502K | −21.1% of holding | +6.9% | −28.3% | 2,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | ROEDER ROSHAN S | officer | Sale | 318 @ $702.56 | $223K | −6.4% of holding | +6.9% | −28.3% | 4,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Hardesty Michael A | officer | Sale | 783 @ $702.43 | $550K | −20.2% of holding | +5.0% | −32.2% | 3,094 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Hardesty Michael A | officer | Sale | 1 @ $703.21 | $408 | −0.0% of holding | +5.0% | −32.2% | 3,093 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Warden Kathy J | director | Sale | 5,734 @ $709.49 | $4.1M | −3.1% of holding | +5.9% | −30.4% | 176,460 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Warden Kathy J | director | Sale | 4,695 @ $707.45 | $3.3M | −2.5% of holding | +5.9% | −30.4% | 184,497 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Warden Kathy J | director | Sale | 3,552 @ $710.36 | $2.5M | −2.0% of holding | +5.9% | −30.4% | 172,908 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Warden Kathy J | director | Sale | 2,303 @ $708.63 | $1.6M | −1.2% of holding | +5.9% | −30.4% | 182,194 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Warden Kathy J | director | Sale | 2,196 @ $706.65 | $1.6M | −1.1% of holding | +5.9% | −30.4% | 189,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Warden Kathy J | director | Sale | 1,306 @ $711.14 | $929K | −0.8% of holding | +5.9% | −30.4% | 171,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Warden Kathy J | director | Sale | 214 @ $705.84 | $151K | −0.1% of holding | +5.9% | −30.4% | 191,388 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 22 @ $682.47 | $15K | −0.5% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 11 @ $686.43 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 10 @ $688.51 | $7K | −0.2% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 10 @ $685.33 | $7K | −0.2% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,237 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 8 @ $687.64 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 8 @ $681.68 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 7 @ $684.67 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,247 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 6 @ $683.79 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,254 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 5 @ $689.31 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 4 @ $680.49 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,290 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 2 @ $677.43 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,294 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 2 @ $676.14 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | +11.9% | −30.4% | 4,296 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Warden Kathy J | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $615.00 | $1.8M | −1.5% of holding | +16.1% | −21.4% | 191,602 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Warden Kathy J | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $600.00 | $4.2M | −3.5% of holding | +13.1% | −19.1% | 194,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | ROEDER ROSHAN S | officer | Sale | 84 @ $555.35 | $47K | −17.2% of holding | +10.5% | −7.5% | 404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 61 @ $564.36 | $34K | −1.4% of holding | −0.2% | −13.9% | 4,294 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 12 @ $565.31 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −0.2% | −13.9% | 4,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 9 @ $563.62 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | −0.2% | −13.9% | 4,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 7 @ $562.52 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −0.2% | −13.9% | 4,364 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 6 @ $561.51 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −0.2% | −13.9% | 4,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Sale | 1 @ $566.15 | $566 | −0.0% of holding | −0.2% | −13.9% | 4,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
163 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Warden Kathy J | director | Award / grant | 35,910 | 35,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brown Marianne Catherine | director | Award / grant | 91 | 11,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | KRISHNA ARVIND | director | Award / grant | 71 | 2,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | WELSH MARK A III | director | Award / grant | 349 | 4,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grady Christopher W. | director | Award / grant | 349 | 421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | WINSTON MARY A | director | Award / grant | 349 | 1,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Turley James S | director | Award / grant | 349 | 6,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | ROUGHEAD GARY | director | Award / grant | 349 | 12,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | ABNEY DAVID P | director | Award / grant | 349 | 2,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | KRISHNA ARVIND | director | Award / grant | 349 | 2,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ross Kimberly A. | director | Award / grant | 349 | 1,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SCHOEWE THOMAS M | director | Award / grant | 349 | 16,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brown Marianne Catherine | director | Award / grant | 349 | 11,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Brown Marianne Catherine | director | Award / grant | 68 | 11,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | KRISHNA ARVIND | director | Award / grant | 53 | 2,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Warden Kathy J | director | Withheld for tax | 4,857 | 196,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Jones Thomas H | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,005 | 11,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | ROEDER ROSHAN S | officer | Withheld for tax | 992 | 4,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Hardesty Michael A | officer | Withheld for tax | 243 | 3,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Simpson Kathryn G | officer | Withheld for tax | 193 | 1,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Davies Benjamin R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 123 | 2,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fleming Robert J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 85 | 2,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | ROEDER ROSHAN S | officer | Option exercise | 2,017 | 6,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Davies Benjamin R. | officer | Option exercise | 274 | 2,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Davies Benjamin R. | officer | Option exercise | 274 | 6,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Hardesty Michael A | officer | Option exercise | 538 | 3,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Hardesty Michael A | officer | Option exercise | 538 | 1,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Warden Kathy J | director | Option exercise | 10,760 | 31,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Warden Kathy J | director | Option exercise | 10,760 | 201,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fleming Robert J. | officer | Option exercise | 264 | 2,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fleming Robert J. | officer | Option exercise | 264 | 6,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | ROEDER ROSHAN S | officer | Option exercise | 2,017 | 5,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Jones Thomas H | officer | Option exercise | 2,152 | 12,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Jones Thomas H | officer | Option exercise | 2,152 | 6,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Simpson Kathryn G | officer | Option exercise | 387 | 2,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Simpson Kathryn G | officer | Option exercise | 387 | 5,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Grady Christopher W. | director | Award / grant | 71 | 71 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Warden Kathy J | director | Withheld for tax | 15,371 | 190,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Jones Thomas H | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,059 | 10,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | ROEDER ROSHAN S | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,968 | 3,912 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Steve Cohen | House | sale | 2026-01-26 | 2025-12-29 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Sheri Biggs | House | sale | 2025-10-05 | 2025-03-19 | $15–50K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | sale | 2025-08-20 | 2025-07-11 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | purchase | 2025-08-20 | 2024-09-26 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-06-09 | 2025-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-06-06 | 2025-05-30 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-09 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-04 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.