NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationIndustrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $510.52 · now $510.52 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, NOC has typically landed between $462.23 and $572.48 — a range of −9.5% to +12.1% from the issuance price $510.52.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($510.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NOC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $510.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$462.23worst · -9.5%$572.48best · +12.1%
  • now $510.52 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $514.14 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $492.59–$535.69
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $462.23–$572.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−40.1%−40.1%+1.2%
2008-09-12−37.2%−40.8%+0.0%
2008-09-16−36.9%−37.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+38.8%−0.5%+38.8%
2009-03-09+33.4%+0.0%+39.6%
2022-02-03+28.4%−1.1%+28.4%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$77.0B
market cap
$31.48
EPS (TTM)
17.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$42.0B
'20'25
Net income$4.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr25.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.18
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $510.52$462.33$1,009
  • DCF (intrinsic)$970.88
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$964.96
  • Analyst target · range $500.00–$815.00$671.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$510.52

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.2%
n=18
Feb
74%
+2.1%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.1%
n=19
May
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.2%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.2%
n=19
Sep
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
44%
+0.6%
n=18
Dec
72%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$765$4962026-08-03: 10 insider sales, $52K — WELSH MARK A III …2026-05-04: 11 insider sales, $54K — WELSH MARK A III …2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $650K — Simpson Kathryn G2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — ROEDER ROSHAN S2026-02-19: 3 insider sales, $621K — ROEDER ROSHAN S, Simpson Kathryn G, Hardesty Michael A2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Davies Benjamin R.2026-02-17: 3 insider sales, $1.3M — Simpson Kathryn G, Hardesty Michael A, ROEDER ROSHAN S2026-02-13: 2 insider sales, $550K — Hardesty Michael A …2026-02-06: 7 insider sales, $14.2M — Warden Kathy J …2026-02-02: 12 insider sales, $65K — WELSH MARK A III …2026-01-06: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Warden Kathy J2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $4.2M — Warden Kathy J2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $47K — ROEDER ROSHAN S2025-11-24: 7 insider sales, $55K — WELSH MARK A III …2025-11: 7 open-market sales, $55K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $47K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $6.0M2026-02: 29 open-market sales, $19.5M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $650K2026-05: 11 open-market sales, $54K2026-08: 10 open-market sales, $52K↑ buys↓ salesdirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Simpson Kathryn G — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer ROEDER ROSHAN S — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer ROEDER ROSHAN S — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Simpson Kathryn G — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hardesty Michael A — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Davies Benjamin R. — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Simpson Kathryn G — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hardesty Michael A — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer ROEDER ROSHAN S — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hardesty Michael A — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hardesty Michael A — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Warden Kathy J — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Warden Kathy J — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Warden Kathy J — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Warden Kathy J — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Warden Kathy J — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Warden Kathy J — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Warden Kathy J — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Warden Kathy J — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Warden Kathy J — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer ROEDER ROSHAN S — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELSH MARK A III — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale31 @ $547.42$17K−0.7% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,419Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale19 @ $545.59$10K−0.4% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,461Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale11 @ $546.42$6K−0.2% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,450Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale10 @ $548.32$5K−0.2% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,409Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale8 @ $544.53$4K−0.2% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,480Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale6 @ $549.50$3K−0.1% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,403Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale4 @ $554.14$2K−0.1% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,393Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale2 @ $553.90$1K−0.0% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,397Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale2 @ $552.95$1K−0.0% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,399Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale2 @ $550.68$1K−0.0% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open4,401Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale43 @ $570.47$25K−1.0% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,158Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale14 @ $573.51$8K−0.3% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,135Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale9 @ $569.49$5K−0.2% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,201Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale7 @ $576.38$4K−0.2% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,122Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale6 @ $572.72$3K−0.1% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,149Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale5 @ $568.75$3K−0.1% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,210Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale4 @ $575.59$2K−0.1% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,129Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale3 @ $571.74$2K−0.1% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,155Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale2 @ $574.51$1K−0.0% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,133Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale1 @ $577.05$577−0.0% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,121Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale1 @ $566.60$567−0.0% of holding−11.9%not yet — horizon still open4,215Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Simpson Kathryn GofficerSale873 @ $745.00$650K−99.8% of holding−6.2%−41.8%1Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27ROEDER ROSHAN SofficerSale1,754 @ $720.00$1.3M−42.7% of holding+0.3%−37.4%2,353Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-19ROEDER ROSHAN SofficerSale512 @ $727.62$373K−11.1% of holding+1.2%−34.9%4,107Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19Simpson Kathryn GofficerSale194 @ $727.62$141K−18.2% of holding+1.2%−34.9%874Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19Hardesty Michael AofficerSale147 @ $732.98$108K−5.5% of holding+1.2%−34.9%2,525Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Davies Benjamin R.officerSale2,189 @ $719.61$1.6M−93.5% of holding+2.7%−31.6%151Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Simpson Kathryn GofficerSale779 @ $702.56$547K−42.2% of holding+6.9%−28.3%1,068Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Hardesty Michael AofficerSale716 @ $700.63$502K−21.1% of holding+6.9%−28.3%2,672Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17ROEDER ROSHAN SofficerSale318 @ $702.56$223K−6.4% of holding+6.9%−28.3%4,619Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-13Hardesty Michael AofficerSale783 @ $702.43$550K−20.2% of holding+5.0%−32.2%3,094Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Hardesty Michael AofficerSale1 @ $703.21$408−0.0% of holding+5.0%−32.2%3,093Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Warden Kathy JdirectorSale5,734 @ $709.49$4.1M−3.1% of holding+5.9%−30.4%176,460Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Warden Kathy JdirectorSale4,695 @ $707.45$3.3M−2.5% of holding+5.9%−30.4%184,497Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Warden Kathy JdirectorSale3,552 @ $710.36$2.5M−2.0% of holding+5.9%−30.4%172,908Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Warden Kathy JdirectorSale2,303 @ $708.63$1.6M−1.2% of holding+5.9%−30.4%182,194Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Warden Kathy JdirectorSale2,196 @ $706.65$1.6M−1.1% of holding+5.9%−30.4%189,192Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Warden Kathy JdirectorSale1,306 @ $711.14$929K−0.8% of holding+5.9%−30.4%171,602Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Warden Kathy JdirectorSale214 @ $705.84$151K−0.1% of holding+5.9%−30.4%191,388Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale22 @ $682.47$15K−0.5% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,260Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale11 @ $686.43$8K−0.3% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,226Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale10 @ $688.51$7K−0.2% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale10 @ $685.33$7K−0.2% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,237Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale8 @ $687.64$6K−0.2% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,218Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale8 @ $681.68$5K−0.2% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,282Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale7 @ $684.67$5K−0.2% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,247Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale6 @ $683.79$4K−0.1% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,254Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale5 @ $689.31$3K−0.1% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,203Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale4 @ $680.49$3K−0.1% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,290Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale2 @ $677.43$1K−0.0% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,294Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale2 @ $676.14$1K−0.0% of holding+11.9%−30.4%4,296Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06Warden Kathy JdirectorSale3,000 @ $615.00$1.8M−1.5% of holding+16.1%−21.4%191,602Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-05Warden Kathy JdirectorSale7,000 @ $600.00$4.2M−3.5% of holding+13.1%−19.1%194,602Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-09ROEDER ROSHAN SofficerSale84 @ $555.35$47K−17.2% of holding+10.5%−7.5%404Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-24WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale61 @ $564.36$34K−1.4% of holding−0.2%−13.9%4,294Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale12 @ $565.31$7K−0.3% of holding−0.2%−13.9%4,282Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale9 @ $563.62$5K−0.2% of holding−0.2%−13.9%4,355Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale7 @ $562.52$4K−0.2% of holding−0.2%−13.9%4,364Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale6 @ $561.51$3K−0.1% of holding−0.2%−13.9%4,371Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorSale1 @ $566.15$566−0.0% of holding−0.2%−13.9%4,281Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

163 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Warden Kathy JdirectorAward / grant35,91035,910Form 4
2026-06-30Brown Marianne CatherinedirectorAward / grant9111,558Form 4
2026-06-30KRISHNA ARVINDdirectorAward / grant712,749Form 4
2026-05-20WELSH MARK A IIIdirectorAward / grant3494,470Form 4
2026-05-20Grady Christopher W.directorAward / grant349421Form 4
2026-05-20WINSTON MARY AdirectorAward / grant3491,609Form 4
2026-05-20Turley James SdirectorAward / grant3496,738Form 4
2026-05-20ROUGHEAD GARYdirectorAward / grant34912,210Form 4
2026-05-20ABNEY DAVID PdirectorAward / grant3492,824Form 4
2026-05-20KRISHNA ARVINDdirectorAward / grant3492,666Form 4
2026-05-20Ross Kimberly A.directorAward / grant3491,612Form 4
2026-05-20SCHOEWE THOMAS MdirectorAward / grant34916,737Form 4
2026-05-20Brown Marianne CatherinedirectorAward / grant34911,415Form 4
2026-03-31Brown Marianne CatherinedirectorAward / grant6811,066Form 4
2026-03-31KRISHNA ARVINDdirectorAward / grant532,317Form 4
2026-02-17Warden Kathy JdirectorWithheld for tax4,857196,681Form 4
2026-02-17Jones Thomas HofficerWithheld for tax1,00511,205Form 4
2026-02-17ROEDER ROSHAN SofficerWithheld for tax9924,937Form 4
2026-02-17Hardesty Michael AofficerWithheld for tax2433,388Form 4
2026-02-17Simpson Kathryn GofficerWithheld for tax1931,847Form 4
2026-02-17Davies Benjamin R.officerWithheld for tax1232,340Form 4
2026-02-17Fleming Robert J.officerWithheld for tax852,619Form 4
2026-02-17ROEDER ROSHAN SofficerOption exercise2,0176,513Form 4
2026-02-17Davies Benjamin R.officerOption exercise2742,463Form 4
2026-02-17Davies Benjamin R.officerOption exercise2746,444Form 4
2026-02-17Hardesty Michael AofficerOption exercise5383,631Form 4
2026-02-17Hardesty Michael AofficerOption exercise5381,494Form 4
2026-02-17Warden Kathy JdirectorOption exercise10,76031,020Form 4
2026-02-17Warden Kathy JdirectorOption exercise10,760201,538Form 4
2026-02-17Fleming Robert J.officerOption exercise2642,704Form 4
2026-02-17Fleming Robert J.officerOption exercise2646,513Form 4
2026-02-17ROEDER ROSHAN SofficerOption exercise2,0175,929Form 4
2026-02-17Jones Thomas HofficerOption exercise2,15212,210Form 4
2026-02-17Jones Thomas HofficerOption exercise2,1526,513Form 4
2026-02-17Simpson Kathryn GofficerOption exercise3872,040Form 4
2026-02-17Simpson Kathryn GofficerOption exercise3875,168Form 4
2026-02-12Grady Christopher W.directorAward / grant7171Form 4
2026-02-11Warden Kathy JdirectorWithheld for tax15,371190,778Form 4
2026-02-11Jones Thomas HofficerWithheld for tax3,05910,058Form 4
2026-02-11ROEDER ROSHAN SofficerWithheld for tax2,9683,912Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Steve CohenHousesale2026-01-262025-12-29$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-10-102025-09-05$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Sheri BiggsHousesale2025-10-052025-03-19$15–50K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousesale2025-08-202025-07-11$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202024-09-26$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-24$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-06-092025-05-15$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-06-062025-05-30$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2025-05-142025-04-09$1–15K
John JamesHousesale2024-09-062024-09-04$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.