Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.62 · now $14.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NN has typically landed between $10.87 and $20.33 — a range of −25.6% to +39.0% from the issuance price $14.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,453 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.77 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.73–$16.81
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.87–$20.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,453 windows spanning 2020-11-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-25 | −56.4% | −56.4% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-26 | −55.9% | −55.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-05-11 | −54.3% | −54.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-03-07 | +114.2% | +0.0% | +114.2% |
| 2024-03-06 | +106.0% | +0.0% | +106.0% |
| 2024-03-08 | +95.4% | +0.0% | +102.1% |
1,453 overlapping windows · 2020-11-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−8.9%
n=6
Feb
50%
−3.9%
n=6
Mar
50%
+10.2%
n=6
Apr
83%
+7.8%
n=6
May
50%
−4.5%
n=6
Jun
67%
−1.3%
n=6
Jul
50%
+0.6%
n=6
Aug
83%
+15.3%
n=6
Sep
33%
−5.2%
n=6
Oct
60%
+15.0%
n=5
Nov
40%
+2.2%
n=5
Dec
67%
+2.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 430 @ $14.79 | $6K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 70,514 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Sale | 849 @ $15.29 | $13K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 166,205 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Black James S | officer | Sale | 1,878 @ $15.34 | $29K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 89,810 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 69,853 @ $15.30 | $1.1M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,171,792 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 2,006 @ $17.84 | $36K | −2.7% of holding | −24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,944 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-24 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Sale | 2,370 @ $17.13 | $41K | −1.4% of holding | −27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 2,830 @ $18.33 | $52K | −0.2% of holding | −30.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,241,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Sale | 849 @ $19.36 | $16K | −0.5% of holding | −30.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Black James S | officer | Sale | 1,878 @ $22.96 | $43K | −2.0% of holding | −32.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,688 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 67,553 @ $19.89 | $1.3M | −5.1% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,246,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $20.89 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,244,495 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 3,945 @ $19.54 | $77K | −5.1% of holding | −20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Sale | 2,370 @ $18.57 | $44K | −1.4% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 170,273 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Black James S | officer | Sale | 6,678 @ $17.91 | $120K | −6.5% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,317 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Sale | 3,599 @ $18.11 | $65K | −2.0% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,643 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Black James S | officer | Sale | 2,751 @ $18.11 | $50K | −2.9% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,566 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 1,767 @ $18.11 | $32K | −2.2% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,895 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Gray Timothy | officer | Sale | 1,405 @ $18.11 | $25K | −1.1% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 131,786 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 115 @ $17.80 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,468 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 11,322 @ $16.85 | $191K | −0.9% of holding | +22.5% | −26.3% | 1,259,624 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Sale | 3,396 @ $16.85 | $57K | −2.6% of holding | +22.5% | −26.3% | 125,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 3,297 @ $16.86 | $56K | −5.0% of holding | +22.5% | −26.3% | 62,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 44,860 @ $17.12 | $768K | −3.4% of holding | −3.3% | −23.4% | 1,270,946 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 24,993 @ $16.53 | $413K | −1.9% of holding | −3.3% | −23.4% | 1,315,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Sale | 2,370 @ $17.06 | $40K | −1.8% of holding | −16.6% | −3.3% | 128,881 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 115 @ $16.91 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | +0.1% | −7.2% | 65,880 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 1,576 @ $16.24 | $26K | −2.3% of holding | −9.0% | −3.0% | 65,995 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 69,853 @ $13.82 | $965K | −5.0% of holding | +17.9% | +60.6% | 1,340,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | SAMBERG JOSEPH D | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 58,457 @ $11.86 | $693K | +0.6% of holding | +39.0% | +65.2% | 9,745,600 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Sale | 12,189 @ $12.78 | $156K | −8.5% of holding | +30.4% | +54.9% | 131,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | SAMBERG JOSEPH D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,000 @ $2.10 | $8K | −100.0% of holding | +32.0% | +70.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | SAMBERG JOSEPH D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 540,000 @ $12.35 | $6.7M | −5.3% of holding | +30.2% | +65.7% | 9,660,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | SAMBERG JOSEPH D | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 60,000 @ $12.35 | $741K | −7.3% of holding | +30.2% | +65.7% | 760,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 102 @ $17.34 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | −26.1% | +10.1% | 67,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Gates Christian D. | officer | Sale | 6,399 @ $17.10 | $109K | −0.8% of holding | −22.3% | +6.2% | 828,059 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $17.13 | $24K | −2.0% of holding | −22.3% | +6.2% | 67,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 68,653 @ $17.60 | $1.2M | −4.6% of holding | −23.6% | −14.7% | 1,411,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $18.04 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | −23.6% | −14.7% | 1,410,652 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Gates Christian D. | officer | Sale | 1,252 @ $13.74 | $17K | −0.1% of holding | +11.7% | +4.7% | 834,458 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 688 @ $13.74 | $9K | −1.0% of holding | +11.7% | +4.7% | 69,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Sorond Mariam | director | Sale | 69,853 @ $14.38 | $1.0M | −4.5% of holding | −0.2% | +2.5% | 1,480,505 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 102 @ $14.61 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −0.2% | +2.5% | 69,761 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Gates Christian D. | officer | Sale | 6,399 @ $13.96 | $89K | −0.8% of holding | −5.0% | +3.1% | 835,710 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Sale | 1,401 @ $13.96 | $20K | −2.0% of holding | −5.0% | +3.1% | 69,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Gates Christian D. | officer | Sale | 1,069 @ $12.75 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −3.7% | −18.3% | 842,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Gates Christian D. | officer | Sale | 183 @ $13.79 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | −18.3% | 842,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,500,000 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | 1,500,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | Foundation Holdco LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 950,000 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | 950,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | Foundation Holdco LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,450,000 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | 1,450,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | Foundation Holdco LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,500,000 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | 1,500,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,450,000 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | 1,450,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 950,000 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | 950,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | — @ $50000000.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | Foundation Holdco LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | — @ $50000000.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | — @ $50000000.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | — @ $50000000.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | — @ $50000000.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | — @ $50000000.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | — @ $50000000.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | — @ $50000000.00 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −2.9% | +3.6% | — | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
57 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | SUBIN NEIL S | director | Exercise | 250,000 | 2,765,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | SUBIN NEIL S | director | Exercise | 250,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | SUBIN NEIL S | director | Conversion | 502,707 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | SUBIN NEIL S | director | Conversion | 502,707 | 502,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,989,738 | 3,989,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Foundation Holdco LP | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,989,738 | 3,989,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 50,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Foundation Holdco LP | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 50,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | SUBIN NEIL S | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 168,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Selby Lorin | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 20,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Palmer Nicola | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 38,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | CARANO BANDEL L | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 188,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hook Lisa | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 12,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Howard Hugh Wyman III | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 20,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Howe Alan B | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 336,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | MARCUS JONATHAN ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 38,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | MULETA JOHN B | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 66,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Award / grant | 60,347 | 60,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Sorond Mariam | director | Award / grant | 54,704 | 1,314,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Sorond Mariam | director | Award / grant | 724,112 | 724,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gray Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 3,372 | 92,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gray Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 41,028 | 133,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gray Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 60,342 | 60,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Award / grant | 9,726 | 135,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Insley Susan Brasse | officer | Award / grant | 41,031 | 176,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Award / grant | 5,712 | 68,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Award / grant | 10,482 | 78,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Shams Sammaad | officer | Award / grant | 15,416 | 15,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Black James S | officer | Award / grant | 8,862 | 75,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Black James S | officer | Award / grant | 27,354 | 102,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Black James S | officer | Award / grant | 40,231 | 40,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Hook Lisa | director | Award / grant | 4,545 | 4,545 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Gray Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 139,646 | 139,646 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Gray Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 88,791 | 88,791 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | MARCUS JONATHAN ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 13,154 | 30,894 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | MULETA JOHN B | director | Award / grant | 13,154 | 44,247 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | MULETA JOHN B | director | Award / grant | 15,033 | 59,280 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Palmer Nicola | director | Award / grant | 13,154 | 30,777 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | SUBIN NEIL S | director | Award / grant | 13,154 | 161,342 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Selby Lorin | director | Award / grant | 13,154 | 13,154 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.