NMRK · TickerCove

NMRKNewmark Group, Inc.Real Estate · Real Estate - Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.19 · now $14.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NMRK has typically landed between $11.59 and $16.95 — a range of −18.3% to +19.5% from the issuance price $14.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,176 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-12-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$14.19 · 7% of range

$13.78 low$19.44 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.2%

typical move · IQR 17.0%

−18.3%worst (p90)+19.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NMRK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $14.19 (+0.0%)
typical $14.22 (+0.2%)
middle 50% $13.01–$15.42
90% range $11.59–$16.95

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,176 windows spanning 2017-12-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−77.6%	−77.6%	+6.4%
2020-03-04	−70.6%	−74.3%	+0.0%
2020-03-03	−68.8%	−73.9%	+1.4%
3 best
2020-05-07	+84.0%	−3.3%	+84.0%
2020-05-06	+82.5%	−1.2%	+82.5%
2020-10-28	+65.7%	+0.0%	+67.9%

2,176 overlapping windows · 2017-12-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

56%

+1.1%

n=9

Feb

44%

+0.8%

n=9

Mar

33%

−10.3%

n=9

Apr

33%

−5.5%

n=9

May

44%

−0.8%

n=9

Jun

67%

+4.3%

n=9

Jul

67%

+8.8%

n=9

Aug

67%

+2.1%

n=9

Sep

44%

−3.2%

n=9

Oct

50%

+0.0%

n=8

Nov

75%

+14.7%

n=8

Dec

50%

+3.6%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	19,787,703	—	−100.0% of holding	−0.9%	−13.9%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	21,285,533	—	−100.0% of holding	−0.9%	−13.9%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	1,025,612	—	−31.4% of holding	−0.9%	−13.9%	2,243,629	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	2,109,370	—	−94.0% of holding	−0.9%	−13.9%	134,259	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	19,787,703	—	−100.0% of holding	−0.9%	−13.9%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	21,285,533	—	−100.0% of holding	−0.9%	−13.9%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	1,025,612	—	−31.4% of holding	−0.9%	−13.9%	2,243,629	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	2,109,370	—	−94.0% of holding	−0.9%	−13.9%	134,259	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Withheld for tax	10,349	31,614	Form 4
2026-08-27	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Award / grant	41,963	41,963	Form 4
2026-08-27	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Award / grant	41,963	41,963	Form 4
2026-08-27	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Award / grant	41,963	41,963	Form 4
2026-08-27	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Award / grant	41,963	41,963	Form 4
2026-08-27	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Award / grant	41,963	41,963	Form 4
2026-08-17	Gosin Barry M	officer	Disposition	3,571,183	328,812	Form 4
2026-07-29	Gosin Barry M	officer	Disposition	300,000	3,599,995	Form 4
2026-05-28	Lutnick Brandon	director	Award / grant	137,831	20,521,166	Form 4
2026-05-28	CF GROUP MANAGEMENT INC	director	Award / grant	137,831	20,521,166	Form 4
2026-05-28	CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P.	director	Award / grant	137,831	20,521,166	Form 4
2026-05-28	Lutnick Brandon	director	Award / grant	137,831	20,521,166	Form 4
2026-05-28	CF GROUP MANAGEMENT INC	director	Award / grant	137,831	20,521,166	Form 4
2026-05-28	CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P.	director	Award / grant	137,831	20,521,166	Form 4
2026-03-15	Rispoli Michael J.	officer	Withheld for tax	32,824	697,217	Form 4
2026-03-15	ALVARADO LUIS	officer	Withheld for tax	1,543	24,365	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lutnick Kyle	director	Withheld for tax	680	9,143	Form 4
2026-02-25	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Disposition	59,601	0	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gosin Barry M	officer	Award / grant	531,022	885,098	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gosin Barry M	officer	Gift	300,000	3,899,995	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gosin Barry M	officer	Gift	300,000	3,899,995	Form 4
2025-12-31	Gosin Barry M	officer	Award / grant	531,022	885,098	Form 4
2025-12-30	McIntyre Kenneth A Jr	director	Award / grant	2,856	41,379	Form 4
2025-12-30	Bauer Virginia S	director	Award / grant	2,856	60,638	Form 4
2025-12-30	Itzkowitz Jay	director	Award / grant	2,856	43,288	Form 4
2025-12-12	Lutnick Brandon	director	Gift	145,181	3,335	Form 4
2025-11-18	CF GROUP MANAGEMENT INC	director	Award / grant	595,632	20,383,335	Form 4
2025-11-18	Lutnick Brandon	director	Award / grant	595,632	20,383,335	Form 4
2025-11-18	CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P.	director	Award / grant	595,632	20,383,335	Form 4
2025-11-18	CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P.	director	Award / grant	595,632	20,383,335	Form 4
2025-11-18	CF GROUP MANAGEMENT INC	director	Award / grant	595,632	20,383,335	Form 4
2025-11-18	Lutnick Brandon	director	Award / grant	595,632	20,383,335	Form 4
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Disposition	129,859	4,400	Form 4
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Disposition	4,400	0	Form 4
2025-10-01	Rispoli Michael J.	officer	Withheld for tax	7,293	730,041	Form 4
2025-10-01	Rispoli Michael J.	officer	Award / grant	4,378	35,976	Form 4
2025-10-01	Rispoli Michael J.	officer	Award / grant	4,378	35,976	Form 4
2025-07-29	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Withheld for tax	13,158	59,605	Form 4
2025-07-29	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Award / grant	68,302	72,763	Form 4
2025-07-29	MERKEL STEPHEN M	director	Award / grant	68,302	72,763	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i