NMRANeumora Therapeutics, Inc. Common StockHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.04 · now $0.77 (2026-09-16, −25.7% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NMRA has typically landed between $0.70 and $1.53 — a range of −32.9% to +46.9% from the issuance price $1.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

730 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-09-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NMRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$0.6973worst · -32.9%$1.53best · +46.9%
  • now $0.7732 (-25.7%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.01 (-2.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.8374–$1.18
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.6973–$1.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 730 windows spanning 2023-09-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-12-30−83.2%−83.2%+0.0%
2024-12-26−83.1%−83.1%+0.0%
2024-12-27−83.0%−83.1%+0.0%
3 best
2025-06-25+190.9%−9.2%+190.9%
2025-06-27+189.3%−3.1%+210.5%
2025-06-26+185.2%−8.3%+194.0%

730 overlapping windows · 2023-09-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
−27.7%
n=3
Feb
67%
+24.8%
n=3
Mar
0%
−34.0%
n=3
Apr
33%
−9.7%
n=3
May
33%
−8.1%
n=3
Jun
33%
−2.1%
n=3
Jul
67%
+64.3%
n=3
Aug
0%
−13.2%
n=3
Sep
67%
−7.3%
n=3
Oct
33%
+10.0%
n=3
Nov
33%
−8.9%
n=3
Dec
67%
+8.6%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$4$12026-08-21: 2 insider sales, $66K — Aurora Daljit Singh …2026-08-20: 2 insider sales, $204K — Aurora Daljit Singh …2026-08-19: 2 insider sales, $102K — Aurora Daljit Singh …2026-08-18: 2 insider sales, $110K — Aurora Daljit Singh …2026-08-17: 3 insider sales, $220K — Aurora Daljit Singh …2026-02-17: 4 insider sales, $83K — BERNS PAUL L, Aurora Daljit Singh, Pinto Joshua, Milligan Michael Lee2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $307K — Aurora Daljit Singh2025-10-27: 3 insider purchases, $15.0M — ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC, ARCH Venture Partners X, LLC, Burow Kristina2025-10: 3 open-market purchases, $15.0M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $307K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $83K2026-08: 11 open-market sales, $702K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed same dayofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed same dayofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed same dayofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed same dayofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BERNS PAUL L — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Pinto Joshua — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Milligan Michael Lee — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Aurora Daljit Singh — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLC — Purchase on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner ARCH Venture Partners X, LLC — Purchase on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Burow Kristina — Purchase on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale21,055 @ $1.60$34K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-21Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale20,553 @ $1.59$33K−29.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open48,750Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale67,741 @ $1.51$103K−58.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open48,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale66,711 @ $1.51$101K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale31,000 @ $1.65$51K−38.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open48,750Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-19Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale30,918 @ $1.65$51K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-18Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale34,987 @ $1.59$55K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale34,162 @ $1.58$54K−41.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open48,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale57,670 @ $1.51$87K−41.1% of holding−46.7%not yet — horizon still open82,770Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale55,016 @ $1.50$83K−100.0% of holding−46.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale34,020 @ $1.49$51K−41.1% of holding−46.7%not yet — horizon still open48,750Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17BERNS PAUL LdirectorSale9,819 @ $3.51$34K−0.1% of holding−22.3%−66.9%7,395,185Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale6,165 @ $3.56$22K−6.9% of holding−22.3%−66.9%82,770Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Pinto JoshuadirectorSale5,967 @ $3.54$21K−9.4% of holding−22.3%−66.9%57,783Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Milligan Michael LeeofficerSale1,436 @ $3.56$5K−6.4% of holding−22.3%−66.9%21,034Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale114,703 @ $2.68$307K−100.0% of holding−25.6%−38.5%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27ARCH Venture Partners XII, LLCdirectorPurchase1,915,700 @ $2.61$5.0M+46.4% of holding−14.9%−20.8%6,046,907Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27ARCH Venture Partners X, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,915,700 @ $2.61$5.0M+46.4% of holding−14.9%−20.8%6,046,907Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27Burow KristinadirectorPurchase1,915,700 @ $2.61$5.0M+46.4% of holding−14.9%−20.8%6,046,907Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18BERNS PAUL LdirectorSale13,871 @ $1.69$23K−0.2% of holding−22.2%−12.2%7,405,004Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Aurora Daljit SinghofficerSale8,565 @ $1.68$14K−8.8% of holding−22.2%−12.2%88,935Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Pinto JoshuadirectorSale8,048 @ $1.67$13K−9.5% of holding−22.2%−12.2%76,952Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Lenz Robert A.directorSale5,614 @ $1.67$9K−1.8% of holding−22.2%−12.2%309,092Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Milligan Michael LeeofficerSale1,978 @ $1.69$3K−8.1% of holding−22.2%−12.2%22,470Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

276 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise21,05521,055Form 4
2026-08-21Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise20,55369,303Form 4
2026-08-21Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise21,05594,798Form 4
2026-08-21Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise20,55388,974Form 4
2026-08-20Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise67,741116,491Form 4
2026-08-20Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise45,02666,711Form 4
2026-08-20Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise21,68521,685Form 4
2026-08-20Duncan JasonofficerAward / grant375,000375,000Form 4
2026-08-20Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise67,741109,527Form 4
2026-08-20Pinto JoshuadirectorAward / grant500,000500,000Form 4
2026-08-20Milligan Michael LeeofficerAward / grant175,000175,000Form 4
2026-08-20Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise45,0260Form 4
2026-08-20Aurora Daljit SinghofficerAward / grant200,000200,000Form 4
2026-08-20BERNS PAUL LdirectorAward / grant500,000500,000Form 4
2026-08-20Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise21,685115,853Form 4
2026-08-19Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise30,91830,918Form 4
2026-08-19Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise17,73279,750Form 4
2026-08-19Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise13,26862,018Form 4
2026-08-19Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise30,91845,026Form 4
2026-08-19Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise13,26823,367Form 4
2026-08-19Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise17,732177,268Form 4
2026-08-18Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise34,98734,987Form 4
2026-08-18Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise34,16282,912Form 4
2026-08-18Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise34,16236,635Form 4
2026-08-18Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise34,98775,944Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise40,890123,660Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise29,73755,016Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise25,27925,279Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise15,355139,015Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise1,424140,439Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise1140,440Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise29,7370Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise25,279110,931Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise1,42470,797Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise15,355192,546Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise40,8900Form 4
2026-08-17Aurora Daljit SinghofficerOption exercise1999,999Form 4
2026-05-27Halawa AlaadirectorAward / grant80,00080,000Form 4
2026-05-27Burow KristinadirectorAward / grant80,00080,000Form 4
2026-05-27Fust Matthew KdirectorAward / grant80,00080,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.