NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $43.00 · now $43.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NMIH has typically landed between $38.34 and $48.66 — a range of −10.8% to +13.2% from the issuance price $43.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,210 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-11-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($43.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NMIH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$38.34worst · -10.8%$48.66best · +13.2%
  • now $43 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $43.54 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.08–$45.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $38.34–$48.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,210 windows spanning 2013-11-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−66.4%−66.4%+0.0%
2020-02-20−61.1%−61.1%+0.0%
2020-02-24−60.9%−65.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-09-24+48.9%+0.0%+48.9%
2020-04-21+46.3%−0.3%+46.3%
2020-09-23+45.8%+0.0%+45.8%

3,210 overlapping windows · 2013-11-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
54%
+1.0%
n=13
Feb
46%
−2.5%
n=13
Mar
46%
−4.5%
n=13
Apr
69%
+3.1%
n=13
May
46%
+2.2%
n=13
Jun
62%
+0.8%
n=13
Jul
54%
+4.0%
n=13
Aug
85%
+5.8%
n=13
Sep
38%
−1.5%
n=13
Oct
67%
+4.2%
n=12
Nov
58%
+1.8%
n=12
Dec
46%
+1.5%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$46$352026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $7.7M — Pollitzer Adam2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $519K — Swithenbank Aurora2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $536K — Smith Robert Owen2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $59K — Montgomery Michael Curry2026-03-24: 1 insider sale, $708K — SHUSTER BRADLEY M2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $704K — SHUSTER BRADLEY M2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $694K — SHUSTER BRADLEY M2026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $756K — SHUSTER BRADLEY M2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $779K — SHUSTER BRADLEY M2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — SHUSTER BRADLEY M2026-02-17: 2 insider sales, $1.5M — Fitzgerald Norman Peter, Yousaf Mohammad Nawaz2025-11-19: 1 insider sale, $738K — EMBLER MICHAEL J2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $11K — Realmuto Nicholas Daniel2025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $783K — SCHEID STEVEN2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $795K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $738K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $4.5M2026-03: 4 open-market sales, $2.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $59K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $7.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Pollitzer Adam — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed same dayofficer Swithenbank Aurora — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Smith Robert Owen — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Montgomery Michael Curry — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHUSTER BRADLEY M — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHUSTER BRADLEY M — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed same daydirector SHUSTER BRADLEY M — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed same daydirector SHUSTER BRADLEY M — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHUSTER BRADLEY M — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHUSTER BRADLEY M — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed same dayofficer Fitzgerald Norman Peter — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Yousaf Mohammad Nawaz — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector EMBLER MICHAEL J — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Realmuto Nicholas Daniel — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed same daydirector SCHEID STEVEN — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Pollitzer AdamdirectorSale172,706 @ $44.85$7.7M−39.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open270,267Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-11Swithenbank AuroraofficerSale11,662 @ $44.51$519K−18.7% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open50,734Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Smith Robert OwenofficerSale12,000 @ $44.65$536K−11.1% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open96,381Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Montgomery Michael CurrydirectorSale1,554 @ $37.90$59K−2.2% of holding−2.9%not yet — horizon still open69,026Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorSale18,953 @ $37.35$708K−4.4% of holding+2.2%not yet — horizon still open415,411Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-19SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorSale18,996 @ $37.05$704K−4.4% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open415,411Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorSale18,976 @ $36.58$694K−4.4% of holding+2.3%+2.9%415,411Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-05SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorSale19,430 @ $38.91$756K−4.5% of holding+1.0%+3.2%415,411Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorSale19,557 @ $39.85$779K−4.5% of holding+0.4%+0.2%415,411Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorSale55,000 @ $39.63$2.2M−11.7% of holding−2.2%+2.5%415,411Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Fitzgerald Norman PeterofficerSale22,500 @ $39.94$899K−41.0% of holding−3.9%+1.0%32,445Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Yousaf Mohammad NawazofficerSale16,000 @ $39.89$638K−29.2% of holding−3.9%+1.0%38,733Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19EMBLER MICHAEL JdirectorSale20,000 @ $36.90$738K−30.3% of holding+8.3%−11.8%46,046Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-16Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerSale291 @ $38.52$11K−3.8% of holding−7.7%−4.0%7,316Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-15SCHEID STEVENdirectorSale19,926 @ $39.31$783K−20.2% of holding−7.5%−5.5%78,960Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-06SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorSale21,545 @ $39.56$852K−5.0% of holding−3.9%−20.7%409,792Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-30Leatherberry William JofficerSale18,121 @ $39.67$719K−11.9% of holding+2.9%−20.6%134,786Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13Montgomery Michael CurrydirectorSale1,875 @ $38.05$71K−2.8% of holding+4.0%−17.8%66,068Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01Pollitzer AdamdirectorSale57,166 @ $36.54$2.1M−14.8% of holding+2.7%−22.5%329,465Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01Smith Robert OwenofficerSale20,000 @ $36.58$732K−19.1% of holding+2.7%−22.5%84,566Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01Leatherberry William JofficerSale10,889 @ $36.64$399K−6.6% of holding+2.7%−22.5%152,907Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-30Leatherberry William JofficerSale13,111 @ $35.56$466K−7.4% of holding+3.5%−26.3%163,796Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-18Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerSale2,755 @ $35.33$97K−25.8% of holding+0.8%−8.7%7,908Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-15Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerSale471 @ $0.00$0−3.5% of holding+1.0%−7.9%13,036Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-15Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerSale1,039 @ $0.00$0−8.0% of holding+1.0%−7.9%11,997Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-15Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerSale564 @ $0.00$0−5.0% of holding+1.0%−7.9%10,663Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-15Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerSale770 @ $0.00$0−6.4% of holding+1.0%−7.9%11,227Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-24Fitzgerald Norman PeterofficerSale20,000 @ $35.88$718K−34.8% of holding+4.4%+2.8%37,470Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Yousaf Mohammad NawazofficerSale15,517 @ $35.66$553K−31.5% of holding+4.4%+2.8%33,701Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-21Yousaf Mohammad NawazofficerSale1,083 @ $35.44$38K−2.2% of holding+7.6%+7.5%49,218Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-13Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerWithheld for tax3027,843Form 4
2026-09-04Pollitzer AdamdirectorOption exercise25,426331,392Form 4
2026-09-04Pollitzer AdamdirectorOption exercise19,435305,966Form 4
2026-09-04Pollitzer AdamdirectorOption exercise16,264286,531Form 4
2026-09-04Pollitzer AdamdirectorOption exercise25,4260Form 4
2026-09-04Pollitzer AdamdirectorOption exercise19,4350Form 4
2026-09-04Pollitzer AdamdirectorOption exercise16,2640Form 4
2026-05-14SCHEID STEVENdirectorAward / grant4,5128,951Form 4
2026-05-14EMBLER MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant4,51250,558Form 4
2026-05-14Erickson John CdirectorAward / grant4,51221,832Form 4
2026-05-14Huskins Priya CheriandirectorAward / grant4,51236,164Form 4
2026-05-14McCreary Lynn S.directorAward / grant4,51248,757Form 4
2026-05-14Agrawal RenudirectorAward / grant4,5128,663Form 4
2026-05-14Montgomery Michael CurrydirectorAward / grant4,51270,580Form 4
2026-05-08Swithenbank AuroraofficerWithheld for tax2,92262,396Form 4
2026-05-01Swithenbank AuroraofficerWithheld for tax9,13565,318Form 4
2026-03-23SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,156470,567Form 4
2026-03-23SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorWithheld for tax36,203434,364Form 4
2026-03-23SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,1560Form 4
2026-03-18SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,158470,569Form 4
2026-03-18SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,15855,156Form 4
2026-03-18SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorWithheld for tax36,162434,407Form 4
2026-03-15Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerWithheld for tax5658,819Form 4
2026-03-15Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerWithheld for tax1,04210,156Form 4
2026-03-15Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerWithheld for tax6748,145Form 4
2026-03-15Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerAward / grant3,88211,198Form 4
2026-03-15Realmuto Nicholas DanielofficerWithheld for tax7729,384Form 4
2026-03-11SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,158470,569Form 4
2026-03-11SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,158110,314Form 4
2026-03-11SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorWithheld for tax36,182434,387Form 4
2026-03-04SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,158470,569Form 4
2026-03-04SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorWithheld for tax35,728434,841Form 4
2026-03-04SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,158165,472Form 4
2026-02-27Leatherberry William JofficerOther acquisition4,900159,334Form 4
2026-02-25SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,158470,569Form 4
2026-02-25SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorWithheld for tax35,601434,968Form 4
2026-02-25SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,158220,630Form 4
2026-02-18SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,000470,411Form 4
2026-02-18SHUSTER BRADLEY MdirectorOption exercise55,000275,788Form 4
2026-02-12Leatherberry William JofficerWithheld for tax4,005164,234Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.