Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.44 · now $10.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NMAX has typically landed between $7.12 and $14.86 — a range of −31.8% to +42.4% from the issuance price $10.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
345 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-03-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NMAX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.07 (-3.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.66–$11.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.12–$14.86
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-31 | −72.5% | −74.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-03 | −62.9% | −65.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | −48.8% | −51.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-05 | +58.4% | −0.8% | +58.4% |
| 2026-05-06 | +52.1% | +0.0% | +59.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | +46.0% | +0.0% | +49.9% |
345 overlapping windows · 2025-03-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | CONYERS INVESTMENTS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 49,588 @ $11.15 | $553K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,001,890 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | CONYERS INVESTMENTS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 282,063 @ $11.55 | $3.3M | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,051,478 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | CONYERS INVESTMENTS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 289 @ $11.70 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,333,541 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | CONYERS INVESTMENTS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,448 @ $11.03 | $270K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,622,041 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | CONYERS INVESTMENTS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 49,600 @ $11.07 | $549K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,646,489 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | CONYERS INVESTMENTS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 53,500 @ $11.03 | $590K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,696,089 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-28 | CONYERS INVESTMENTS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,350 @ $11.04 | $147K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,749,589 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | CONYERS INVESTMENTS LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32,416 @ $11.02 | $357K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,762,939 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
16 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Dobriansky Paula J. | director | Award / grant | 23,940 | 23,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Acosta Rene Alexander | director | Award / grant | 23,940 | 23,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gandler David | director | Award / grant | 23,940 | 23,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Evans David A.R. | director | Award / grant | 23,940 | 23,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Cox Christopher Nixon | director | Award / grant | 23,940 | 23,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brinker Nancy G | director | Award / grant | 23,940 | 23,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Burnham Darryle | officer | Award / grant | 17,153 | 157,947 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-25 | Gandler David | director | Award / grant | 11,738 | 11,738 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Dobriansky Paula J. | director | Award / grant | 13,813 | 13,813 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Brinker Nancy G | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Acosta Rene Alexander | director | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Burnham Darryle | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Brown Andrew Allen | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Cox Christopher Nixon | director | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Acosta Rene Alexander | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Brinker Nancy G | director | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.