Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.95 · now $6.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NL has typically landed between $5.92 and $8.36 — a range of −14.8% to +20.2% from the issuance price $6.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.97 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.52–$7.42
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.92–$8.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-07-29 | −46.7% | −46.7% | +0.0% |
| 2015-07-27 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +2.0% |
| 2015-07-28 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +2.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-11-03 | +99.5% | +0.0% | +99.5% |
| 2016-10-26 | +96.8% | −5.9% | +96.8% |
| 2016-11-04 | +95.5% | +0.0% | +96.8% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $7.19 | $7K | +7.5% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 14,420 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $7.15 | $7K | +8.1% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 13,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $7.07 | $7K | +9.7% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 11,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $6.93 | $7K | +10.7% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 10,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 588 @ $7.36 | $4K | +3.9% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 15,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 500 @ $7.08 | $4K | +4.4% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 11,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 470 @ $7.14 | $3K | +4.0% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 12,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 188 @ $7.33 | $1K | +1.3% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 15,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 186 @ $7.24 | $1K | +1.3% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 14,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 122 @ $7.22 | $881 | +0.8% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 14,551 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 113 @ $7.46 | $843 | +0.7% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 15,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 113 @ $7.23 | $817 | +0.8% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 14,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 100 @ $7.34 | $734 | +0.7% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 15,138 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 100 @ $7.18 | $718 | +0.8% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 13,420 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 10 @ $7.40 | $74 | +0.1% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 15,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 9 @ $7.21 | $65 | +0.1% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 14,429 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1 @ $7.37 | $7 | +0.0% of holding | +9.6% | −28.9% | 15,727 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1,080 @ $6.78 | $7K | +14.7% of holding | +17.4% | −22.9% | 8,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $6.76 | $7K | +15.7% of holding | +17.4% | −22.9% | 7,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $6.47 | $6K | +20.6% of holding | +17.4% | −22.9% | 5,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $6.36 | $6K | +26.0% of holding | +17.4% | −22.9% | 4,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $6.32 | $6K | +35.1% of holding | +17.4% | −22.9% | 3,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 500 @ $6.83 | $3K | +5.6% of holding | +17.4% | −22.9% | 9,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 500 @ $6.71 | $3K | +8.5% of holding | +17.4% | −22.9% | 6,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Purchase | 420 @ $6.79 | $3K | +5.0% of holding | +17.4% | −22.9% | 8,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Hanley Bryan A. | officer | Purchase | 250 @ $6.78 | $2K | +25.0% of holding | +17.4% | −22.9% | 1,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
11 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Harper John E | director | Award / grant | 6,000 | 38,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MOORE CECIL H JR | director | Award / grant | 6,000 | 49,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Feehan Loretta J. | director | Award / grant | 6,000 | 41,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Award / grant | 6,000 | 24,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | TURNER R GERALD DR | director | Award / grant | 6,000 | 9,739 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Kramer Kevin B | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 18,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Harper John E | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 32,050 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | MOORE CECIL H JR | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 43,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | TURNER R GERALD DR | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 3,739 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Mendes Meredith W. | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 28,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Feehan Loretta J. | director | Award / grant | 2,500 | 35,050 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.