Issued 2026-09-25 at $2.75 · now $2.75 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, NKTX has typically landed between $1.86 and $4.02 — a range of −32.2% to +46.1% from the issuance price $2.75.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,537 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-07-10 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($2.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NKTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $2.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.75 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.64 (-4.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.22–$3.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.86–$4.02
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-06-05 | −59.6% | −59.6% | +1.4% |
| 2023-06-15 | −59.4% | −60.2% | +0.0% |
| 2023-06-13 | −57.7% | −58.2% | +5.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-12-06 | +272.3% | −0.4% | +272.3% |
| 2023-12-07 | +257.4% | −1.4% | +268.2% |
| 2023-12-08 | +255.7% | +0.0% | +273.6% |
1,537 overlapping windows · 2020-07-10 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- April 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Phase 1/2 Study of NKX019 in Subjects With Autoimmune Disease (Ntrust-1) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Phase 1/2 Study of NKX019 in Subjects With Immune-Mediated Diseases (Ntrust-2) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Sale | 1,776 @ $2.71 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 390,247 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Sale | 26,046 @ $2.07 | $54K | −6.3% of holding | +6.5% | +23.4% | 390,023 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Mahmood Nadir | officer | Sale | 5,649 @ $2.07 | $12K | −3.3% of holding | +6.5% | +23.4% | 167,727 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Sale | 1,790 @ $1.79 | $3K | −0.6% of holding | −0.1% | −15.8% | 320,069 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Sale | 17,378 @ $2.20 | $38K | −5.2% of holding | −4.2% | −21.2% | 319,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Hager Alicia J. | officer | Sale | 9,584 @ $2.20 | $21K | −6.1% of holding | −4.2% | −21.2% | 146,735 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Shook David | officer | Sale | 8,638 @ $2.20 | $19K | −4.3% of holding | −4.2% | −21.2% | 190,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Brandenberger Ralph | officer | Sale | 7,447 @ $2.20 | $16K | −5.6% of holding | −4.2% | −21.2% | 124,796 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Levin Alyssa | officer | Sale | 5,838 @ $2.20 | $13K | −5.4% of holding | −4.2% | −21.2% | 102,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-16 | Hager Alicia J. | officer | Sale | 3,396 @ $8.00 | $27K | −3.2% of holding | −32.1% | −77.6% | 103,819 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-18 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Sale | 1,770 @ $5.60 | $10K | −0.7% of holding | +17.4% | −67.8% | 240,737 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-18 | Hager Alicia J. | officer | Sale | 727 @ $5.60 | $4K | −0.7% of holding | +17.4% | −67.8% | 107,215 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-18 | Trager James | officer | Sale | 456 @ $5.60 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +17.4% | −67.8% | 150,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-18 | Shook David | officer | Sale | 456 @ $5.60 | $3K | −0.4% of holding | +17.4% | −67.8% | 116,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-18 | Brandenberger Ralph | officer | Sale | 229 @ $5.60 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | +17.4% | −67.8% | 79,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 3,000,031 @ $10.00 | $30.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −35.2% | −68.8% | 3,000,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 3,000,000 @ $10.00 | $30.0M | +42.5% of holding | −35.2% | −68.8% | 10,050,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-27 | George Simeon | director | Purchase | 1,548,341 @ $10.00 | $15.5M | ownership Δ n/a | −35.2% | −68.8% | 1,548,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-27 | George Simeon | director | Purchase | 451,659 @ $10.00 | $4.5M | ownership Δ n/a | −35.2% | −68.8% | 451,659 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | Brandenberger Ralph | officer | Sale | 8,367 @ $12.51 | $105K | −9.5% of holding | −24.5% | −69.3% | 79,972 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 37,000 | 37,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Dybbs Michael | director | Award / grant | 37,000 | 37,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | George Simeon | director | Award / grant | 37,000 | 37,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 37,000 | 37,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thedinga Angela | director | Award / grant | 37,000 | 37,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | PATTERSON LEONE D | director | Award / grant | 37,000 | 37,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Scheiner Zachary | director | Award / grant | 37,000 | 37,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Vratsanos George | director | Award / grant | 37,000 | 37,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Rose Shawn Marshall | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Rose Shawn Marshall | officer | Award / grant | 139,000 | 139,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahmood Nadir | officer | Award / grant | 160,000 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahmood Nadir | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 173,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 94,000 | 416,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 562,000 | 562,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-23 | Rose Shawn Marshall | officer | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Mahmood Nadir | officer | Award / grant | 123,500 | 123,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 46,000 | 46,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | PATTERSON LEONE D | director | Award / grant | 46,000 | 46,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Thedinga Angela | director | Award / grant | 46,000 | 46,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 377,000 | 377,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 46,000 | 46,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Dybbs Michael | director | Award / grant | 46,000 | 46,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Scheiner Zachary | director | Award / grant | 46,000 | 46,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Vratsanos George | director | Award / grant | 46,000 | 46,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | George Simeon | director | Award / grant | 46,000 | 46,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 565,500 | 565,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Shook David | officer | Award / grant | 59,000 | 199,593 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Brandenberger Ralph | officer | Award / grant | 52,500 | 132,243 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Brandenberger Ralph | officer | Award / grant | 105,000 | 105,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Mahmood Nadir | officer | Award / grant | 62,000 | 93,376 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | HASTINGS PAUL J | director | Award / grant | 94,500 | 337,237 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Hager Alicia J. | officer | Award / grant | 105,000 | 105,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Hager Alicia J. | officer | Award / grant | 52,500 | 156,319 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Mahmood Nadir | officer | Award / grant | 123,500 | 123,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Levin Alyssa | officer | Award / grant | 52,500 | 108,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Levin Alyssa | officer | Award / grant | 105,000 | 105,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-03 | Shook David | officer | Award / grant | 117,500 | 117,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-08-21 | Shook David | officer | Award / grant | 1,352 | 138,593 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Mahmood Nadir | officer | Award / grant | 550,000 | 550,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-15 | Shook David | officer | Award / grant | 23,421 | 139,945 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.