NKTRNektar Therapeuticsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $67.38 · now $67.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NKTR has typically landed between $46.07 and $100.61 — a range of −31.6% to +49.3% from the issuance price $67.38.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($67.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NKTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $67.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$46.07worst · -31.6%$100.61best · +49.3%
  • now $67.38 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.57 (-2.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.74–$76.39
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $46.07–$100.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-02-23−75.7%−75.7%+0.0%
2023-02-22−75.4%−75.4%+0.0%
2023-02-21−72.1%−72.1%+6.4%
3 best
2025-05-23+229.8%−3.6%+229.8%
2025-05-27+225.8%−6.6%+225.8%
2025-06-16+188.3%−8.0%+220.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+3.2%
n=18
Feb
58%
+4.0%
n=19
Mar
47%
+2.7%
n=19
Apr
42%
+0.2%
n=19
May
21%
−5.3%
n=19
Jun
47%
+7.9%
n=19
Jul
53%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
47%
+1.9%
n=19
Sep
42%
+4.0%
n=19
Oct
39%
−2.4%
n=18
Nov
56%
+7.2%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$100$242026-08-18: 2 insider sales, $43K — ROBIN HOWARD W, Zalevsky Jonathan2026-06-30: 1 insider sale, $398K — Zalevsky Jonathan2026-06-17: 2 insider sales, $612K — ROBIN HOWARD W …2026-06-16: 2 insider sales, $603K — ROBIN HOWARD W …2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $336K — Zalevsky Jonathan2026-05-19: 2 insider sales, $42K — ROBIN HOWARD W, Zalevsky Jonathan2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $44K — ROBIN HOWARD W, Zalevsky Jonathan2026-01-20: 1 insider sale, $138K — Zalevsky Jonathan2025-11-25: 3 insider sales, $217K — ROBIN HOWARD W, Zalevsky Jonathan, Wilson Mark Andrew2025-09-09: 4 insider sales, $311K — ROBIN HOWARD W …2025-09-05: 3 insider sales, $257K — ROBIN HOWARD W …2025-09-04: 8 insider sales, $232K — ROBIN HOWARD W, Zalevsky Jonathan …2025-09-02: 2 insider sales, $60K — ROBIN HOWARD W, Zalevsky Jonathan2025-08-19: 3 insider sales, $79K — ROBIN HOWARD W, Zalevsky Jonathan, Wilson Mark Andrew2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $79K2025-09: 17 open-market sales, $860K2025-11: 3 open-market sales, $217K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $138K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $44K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $42K2026-06: 6 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $43K↑ buys↓ salesdirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2026-01-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same dayofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same dayofficer Wilson Mark Andrew — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBIN HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zalevsky Jonathan — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wilson Mark Andrew — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale418 @ $71.98$30K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open54,627Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale186 @ $71.98$13K−1.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,570Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-30Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale5,681 @ $70.00$398K−36.8% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open9,756Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-17ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale5,500 @ $60.81$334K−8.5% of holding+6.0%not yet — horizon still open59,545Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-17ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale4,500 @ $61.65$277K−7.6% of holding+6.0%not yet — horizon still open55,045Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-16ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale5,303 @ $59.97$318K−7.1% of holding+13.9%not yet — horizon still open69,742Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-16ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale4,697 @ $60.71$285K−6.7% of holding+13.9%not yet — horizon still open65,045Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale5,538 @ $60.71$336K−26.4% of holding+9.9%not yet — horizon still open15,437Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale444 @ $65.51$29K−0.6% of holding−11.8%not yet — horizon still open75,045Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale199 @ $65.51$13K−0.9% of holding−11.8%not yet — horizon still open20,975Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale423 @ $73.00$31K−0.6% of holding+6.1%−11.4%75,489Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale180 @ $73.00$13K−0.8% of holding+6.1%−11.4%21,174Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-20Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale3,867 @ $35.67$138K−15.3% of holding+102.8%+80.4%21,354Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-25ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale2,207 @ $54.28$120K−3.9% of holding−28.8%−5.2%54,245Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale1,157 @ $54.28$63K−5.7% of holding−28.8%−5.2%18,971Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25Wilson Mark AndrewofficerSale630 @ $54.28$34K−2.8% of holding−28.8%−5.2%21,585Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-09ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale2,156 @ $47.49$102K−4.1% of holding+12.7%+46.4%50,552Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-09ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale2,100 @ $45.16$95K−3.7% of holding+12.7%+46.4%53,908Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-09ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale1,210 @ $48.18$58K−2.4% of holding+12.7%+46.4%49,342Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-09ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale1,200 @ $46.41$56K−2.2% of holding+12.7%+46.4%52,708Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-05ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale3,304 @ $37.87$125K−5.3% of holding+45.1%+66.7%59,370Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-05ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale2,226 @ $38.82$86K−3.7% of holding+45.1%+66.7%57,144Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-05ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale1,136 @ $39.89$45K−2.0% of holding+45.1%+66.7%56,008Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-04ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale1,923 @ $32.37$62K−2.8% of holding+64.9%+92.3%65,917Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale1,496 @ $33.54$50K−2.3% of holding+64.9%+92.3%64,421Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale1,134 @ $35.80$41K−1.8% of holding+64.9%+92.3%62,674Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale793 @ $32.43$26K−4.1% of holding+64.9%+92.3%18,390Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale613 @ $34.40$21K−1.0% of holding+64.9%+92.3%63,808Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale432 @ $33.60$15K−2.3% of holding+64.9%+92.3%17,958Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale307 @ $35.69$11K−1.7% of holding+64.9%+92.3%17,462Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale189 @ $34.41$7K−1.1% of holding+64.9%+92.3%17,769Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-02ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale1,500 @ $30.16$45K−2.2% of holding+97.6%+136.8%67,840Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale485 @ $30.10$15K−2.5% of holding+97.6%+136.8%19,183Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-19ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale1,573 @ $26.59$42K−2.2% of holding+116.4%+168.8%69,340Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-19Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale725 @ $26.59$19K−3.6% of holding+116.4%+168.8%19,668Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-19Wilson Mark AndrewofficerSale676 @ $26.59$18K−3.2% of holding+116.4%+168.8%20,312Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale23,208 @ $0.67$16K−2.1% of holding−8.7%+522.0%1,063,693Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale10,712 @ $0.67$7K−3.4% of holding−8.7%+522.0%305,892Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19Wilson Mark AndrewofficerSale9,996 @ $0.67$7K−3.1% of holding−8.7%+522.0%314,296Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale23,774 @ $1.01$24K−2.1% of holding−4.9%+74.9%1,086,901Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Wilson Mark AndrewofficerSale11,040 @ $1.01$11K−3.3% of holding−4.9%+74.9%324,292Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale10,300 @ $1.01$10K−3.2% of holding−4.9%+74.9%316,604Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-24Wilson Mark AndrewofficerSale16,560 @ $0.89$15K−4.7% of holding−8.0%+86.4%335,332Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-23Wilson Mark AndrewofficerSale33,402 @ $0.90$30K−8.7% of holding−3.6%+86.7%351,892Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-19Zalevsky JonathanofficerSale51,115 @ $0.94$48K−13.5% of holding−9.3%+101.8%326,904Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-18ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale85,035 @ $0.99$84K−7.1% of holding−4.6%+71.7%1,110,675Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorSale46,995 @ $1.01$47K−3.8% of holding−11.5%−37.9%1,195,710Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

29 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Zalevsky JonathanofficerAward / grant16,50016,500Form 4
2026-07-24ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorAward / grant57,20057,200Form 4
2025-12-22Zalevsky JonathanofficerAward / grant6,25025,221Form 4
2025-12-22ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorAward / grant21,66775,912Form 4
2025-12-22ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorAward / grant86,66786,667Form 4
2025-12-22Zalevsky JonathanofficerAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2025-11-21ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorAward / grant12,17012,170Form 4
2025-11-21Wilson Mark AndrewofficerAward / grant3,4003,400Form 4
2025-11-21Zalevsky JonathanofficerAward / grant4,7664,766Form 4
2025-11-21Zalevsky JonathanofficerAward / grant2,66620,128Form 4
2025-11-21ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorAward / grant7,11056,452Form 4
2025-11-21Wilson Mark AndrewofficerAward / grant1,90322,215Form 4
2025-09-30GREER R SCOTTdirectorAward / grant8,0008,000Form 4
2025-09-30Ajer Jeffrey RobertdirectorAward / grant8,0008,000Form 4
2025-09-30CHESS ROBERTdirectorAward / grant8,0008,000Form 4
2025-09-30Brainard DianadirectorAward / grant8,0008,000Form 4
2025-09-30WHITFIELD ROY AdirectorAward / grant8,0008,000Form 4
2025-08-19ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorAward / grant86,66686,666Form 4
2025-08-19Wilson Mark AndrewofficerAward / grant21,66621,666Form 4
2025-08-19Zalevsky JonathanofficerAward / grant16,66616,666Form 4
2024-12-13Wilson Mark AndrewofficerAward / grant331,875331,875Form 4
2024-12-13Zalevsky JonathanofficerAward / grant135,000378,019Form 4
2024-12-13Zalevsky JonathanofficerAward / grant270,000270,000Form 4
2024-12-13Wilson Mark AndrewofficerAward / grant165,938385,294Form 4
2024-12-13Wilson Mark AndrewofficerAward / grant325,000325,000Form 4
2024-12-13Zalevsky JonathanofficerAward / grant375,000375,000Form 4
2024-12-13ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorAward / grant1,300,0001,300,000Form 4
2024-12-13ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorAward / grant410,6251,242,705Form 4
2024-12-13ROBIN HOWARD WdirectorAward / grant821,250821,250Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-10-162019-09-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-07-112019-06-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2018-10-022018-06-21$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2018-10-022018-06-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-06-082018-05-08$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.