NKENIKE, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.78 · now $35.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NKE has typically landed between $29.96 and $40.47 — a range of −16.3% to +13.1% from the issuance price $35.78.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NKE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.96worst · -16.3%$40.47best · +13.1%
  • now $35.78 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.22 (-1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.03–$37.41
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.96–$40.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−37.2%−37.2%+0.0%
2020-02-13−35.2%−35.2%+0.2%
2020-02-20−34.0%−34.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+41.4%+0.0%+43.2%
2020-03-18+32.1%−7.7%+32.1%
2009-03-05+30.0%−3.4%+30.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$61.7B
market cap
$2.10
EPS (TTM)
19.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-29
next earnings
Revenue$46.4B
'21'26
Net income$3.1B
'21'26
Free cash flow$2.2B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr6.7%
'21'26
ROE · by yr20.9%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.74
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $35.78$31.80$78.20
  • DCF (intrinsic)$49.97
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$50.02
  • Analyst target · range $35.00–$75.00$48.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$35.78

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−0.8%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.0%
n=19
Mar
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Apr
47%
+0.3%
n=19
May
58%
+0.2%
n=19
Jun
58%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
53%
+2.4%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.2%
n=18
Nov
83%
+4.3%
n=18
Dec
44%
+0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$77$362026-09-09: 3 insider sales, $371K — Alagirisamy Venkatesh, Leinwand Robert, McCartney Philip2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $205K — Montagne Amy2026-08-05: 4 insider sales, $195K — Friend Matthew, Alagirisamy Venkatesh, Leinwand Robert, McCartney Philip2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $803K — McCartney Philip2026-04-13: 1 insider purchase, $1000K — Hill Elliott2026-04-10: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — COOK TIMOTHY D2026-04-09: 1 insider purchase, $173K — ROGERS JOHN W JR2026-04-07: 1 insider purchase, $500K — SWAN ROBERT HOLMES2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $565K — Leinwand Robert2025-12-29: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Hill Elliott2025-12-22: 2 insider purchases, $3.4M — COOK TIMOTHY D, SWAN ROBERT HOLMES2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $5.6M — PARKER MARK G2025-11-07: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIG2025-10-06: 1 insider sale, $306K — Heinle Treasure2025-10-02: 1 insider sale, $52K — Leinwand Robert2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $76K — Leinwand Robert2025-08-14: 1 insider sale, $6.5M — PARKER MARK G2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $244K — McCartney Philip2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $6.9M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $76K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $359K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $5.6M2025-12: 3 open-market purchases, $4.4M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $565K2026-04: 4 open-market purchases, $2.7M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $803K2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $400K2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $371K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Alagirisamy Venkatesh — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Leinwand Robert — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McCartney Philip — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Montagne Amy — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Friend Matthew — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Alagirisamy Venkatesh — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Leinwand Robert — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McCartney Philip — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McCartney Philip — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed same daydirector Hill Elliott — Purchase on 2026-04-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector COOK TIMOTHY D — Purchase on 2026-04-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ROGERS JOHN W JR — Purchase on 2026-04-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SWAN ROBERT HOLMES — Purchase on 2026-04-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Leinwand Robert — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hill Elliott — Purchase on 2025-12-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector COOK TIMOTHY D — Purchase on 2025-12-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SWAN ROBERT HOLMES — Purchase on 2025-12-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector PARKER MARK G — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIG — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Heinle Treasure — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Leinwand Robert — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Leinwand Robert — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector PARKER MARK G — Sale on 2025-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer McCartney Philip — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Alagirisamy VenkateshofficerSale3,671 @ $37.59$138K−3.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open104,862Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-09Leinwand RobertofficerSale3,646 @ $37.59$137K−4.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open87,758Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-09McCartney PhilipofficerSale2,559 @ $37.59$96K−3.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open78,121Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07Montagne AmyofficerSale4,867 @ $42.05$205K−7.8% of holding−7.7%not yet — horizon still open57,436Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-05Friend MatthewdirectorSale2,463 @ $41.60$102K−2.9% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open82,165Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Alagirisamy VenkateshofficerSale890 @ $41.60$37K−1.2% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open74,820Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Leinwand RobertofficerSale821 @ $41.60$34K−1.3% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open60,765Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05McCartney PhilipofficerSale524 @ $41.60$22K−1.0% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open52,115Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12McCartney PhilipofficerSale17,398 @ $46.18$803K−24.7% of holding−6.8%not yet — horizon still open53,133Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-13Hill ElliottdirectorPurchase23,660 @ $42.27$1000K+9.8% of holding−8.9%not yet — horizon still open265,247Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-10COOK TIMOTHY DdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $42.43$1.1M+23.7% of holding−9.4%not yet — horizon still open130,480Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-09ROGERS JOHN W JRdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $43.34$173K+10.8% of holding−8.2%not yet — horizon still open41,022Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-07SWAN ROBERT HOLMESdirectorPurchase11,781 @ $42.44$500K+27.2% of holding−8.5%not yet — horizon still open55,074Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12Leinwand RobertofficerSale9,065 @ $62.33$565K−12.8% of holding−7.9%−46.9%61,662Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-29Hill ElliottdirectorPurchase16,388 @ $61.10$1.0M+7.3% of holding+1.4%−37.5%241,587Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-22COOK TIMOTHY DdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $58.97$2.9M+90.1% of holding+13.0%−35.2%105,480Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-22SWAN ROBERT HOLMESdirectorPurchase8,691 @ $57.54$500K+25.1% of holding+13.0%−35.2%43,293Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14PARKER MARK GdirectorSale86,078 @ $64.80$5.6M−11.7% of holding+4.2%−42.9%647,615Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIGdirectorPurchase16,150 @ $62.09$1.0M+308.3% of holding+2.5%−40.4%21,388Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-06Heinle TreasureofficerSale4,300 @ $71.27$306K−12.8% of holding−14.5%−39.8%29,396Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-02Leinwand RobertofficerSale697 @ $75.13$52K−1.6% of holding−15.3%−39.2%44,158Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05Leinwand RobertofficerSale1,019 @ $74.64$76K−2.2% of holding−7.8%−27.9%44,855Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-14PARKER MARK GdirectorSale86,078 @ $75.93$6.5M−10.4% of holding−6.4%−22.7%744,988Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13McCartney PhilipofficerSale3,162 @ $77.21$244K−8.2% of holding−6.9%−26.2%35,592Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-05Leinwand RobertofficerSale1,644 @ $74.91$123K−5.4% of holding−1.5%−22.6%28,752Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-16PARKER MARK GdirectorSale110,000 @ $72.29$8.0M−11.6% of holding+2.6%−19.2%842,361Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14PARKER MARK GdirectorSale110,000 @ $62.05$6.8M−11.6% of holding−2.9%−11.7%842,361Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14PARKER MARK GdirectorSale42,976 @ $62.05$2.7M−4.9% of holding−2.9%−11.7%842,361Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-24Nielsen JohannaofficerSale138 @ $57.81$8K−14.1% of holding−3.3%−3.0%844Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-04SWAN ROBERT HOLMESdirectorPurchase8,600 @ $58.46$503K+36.8% of holding−11.0%−7.9%31,983Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-14PARKER MARK GdirectorSale110,000 @ $72.83$8.0M−10.9% of holding+8.9%+1.1%896,632Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-14PARKER MARK GdirectorSale59,732 @ $72.83$4.4M−6.2% of holding+8.9%+1.1%896,632Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-13Leinwand RobertofficerSale4,506 @ $72.81$328K−12.7% of holding+8.2%+0.2%30,943Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-11O'NEILL HEIDIdirectorSale14,147 @ $71.18$1.0M−14.9% of holding+11.2%+2.3%80,492Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-27ROGERS JOHN W JRdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $76.65$192K+7.8% of holding+0.8%−3.8%34,403Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Henry Peter B.directorAward / grant5,04716,146Form 4
2026-09-08HENRY MARIAdirectorAward / grant5,04713,814Form 4
2026-09-08Gil MonicadirectorAward / grant5,04713,940Form 4
2026-09-08Duckett ThasundadirectorAward / grant5,04718,636Form 4
2026-09-08COOK TIMOTHY DdirectorAward / grant5,047135,527Form 4
2026-09-08SWAN ROBERT HOLMESdirectorAward / grant5,04759,025Form 4
2026-09-08Knight Travis AdirectorAward / grant5,0472,889,704Form 4
2026-09-08KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIGdirectorAward / grant5,04726,435Form 4
2026-09-08PELUSO MICHELLE AdirectorAward / grant5,04737,861Form 4
2026-09-01Hill ElliottdirectorWithheld for tax9,462373,730Form 4
2026-09-01Alagirisamy VenkateshofficerWithheld for tax3,453108,533Form 4
2026-09-01Leinwand RobertofficerWithheld for tax3,43091,404Form 4
2026-09-01Heinle TreasureofficerWithheld for tax3,43090,735Form 4
2026-09-01Montagne AmyofficerWithheld for tax2,64785,761Form 4
2026-09-01McCartney PhilipofficerWithheld for tax2,40780,680Form 4
2026-09-01Nielsen JohannaofficerWithheld for tax26315,973Form 4
2026-09-01Alagirisamy VenkateshofficerAward / grant135,624135,624Form 4
2026-09-01Leinwand RobertofficerAward / grant124,322124,322Form 4
2026-09-01Leinwand RobertofficerAward / grant34,06994,834Form 4
2026-09-01Hill ElliottdirectorAward / grant395,570395,570Form 4
2026-09-01Hill ElliottdirectorAward / grant108,400383,192Form 4
2026-09-01Heinle TreasureofficerAward / grant124,322124,322Form 4
2026-09-01Heinle TreasureofficerAward / grant34,06994,165Form 4
2026-09-01Denton David MdirectorAward / grant259,946259,946Form 4
2026-09-01Alagirisamy VenkateshofficerAward / grant37,166111,986Form 4
2026-09-01Denton David MdirectorAward / grant71,23471,234Form 4
2026-09-01Nielsen JohannaofficerAward / grant11,89316,236Form 4
2026-09-01PARKER MARK GdirectorAward / grant180,832180,832Form 4
2026-09-01Montagne AmyofficerAward / grant113,020113,020Form 4
2026-09-01Montagne AmyofficerAward / grant30,97288,408Form 4
2026-09-01McCartney PhilipofficerAward / grant113,020113,020Form 4
2026-09-01McCartney PhilipofficerAward / grant30,97283,087Form 4
2026-08-14PARKER MARK GdirectorGift11,386613,999Form 4
2026-08-03Friend MatthewdirectorWithheld for tax1,23984,628Form 4
2026-08-03Alagirisamy VenkateshofficerWithheld for tax83775,710Form 4
2026-08-03Montagne AmyofficerWithheld for tax57862,303Form 4
2026-08-03McCartney PhilipofficerWithheld for tax49452,639Form 4
2026-08-03Leinwand RobertofficerWithheld for tax41361,586Form 4
2026-07-30Knight Travis AdirectorGift2,850,7171,954,424Form 4
2026-07-30Knight Travis AdirectorGift2,850,7172,884,657Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.